Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis: Price Forecast, Technicals & Investment Outlook

Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis & Price Forecast: Navigating the Retail Giant’s Future (2025-11-22)

Welcome, investors! Today, we’re diving deep into the world of Walmart Inc. (WMT), a titan in the Discount Stores industry with a staggering $840.50 billion market capitalization. As a financial journalist, I know you’re always looking for clarity in a complex market. Our core mission here is to figure out if WMT’s current stock price truly reflects its intrinsic value and if this retail powerhouse is geared up for sustainable growth.

You might be asking yourself: Is now the right time to add Walmart to your portfolio? Or are there hidden risks beneath the surface of this seemingly stable investment? Let’s peel back the layers and uncover what the data tells us about WMT’s performance in today’s dynamic market.

Here’s What You Need to Know Right Now About WMT Stock

As of November 2025, Walmart stock (WMT) is trading at $105.32. This is a significant indicator, especially since it’s comfortably above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling positive momentum.

Wall Street analysts are generally upbeat, projecting a 1-year price target of $118.21, which could mean a potential +12.2% upside. However, it’s not all smooth sailing; WMT shows a considerable annualized volatility of 22.8%. This suggests that while there’s upside potential, investors should be prepared for some notable price swings.

Walmart Inc.’s narrative is quite intriguing. On one side, the company boasts a robust portfolio of well-established brands, giving it a strong competitive edge. On the flip side, it operates in an incredibly competitive retail landscape, constantly battling both traditional rivals and innovative newcomers.

What’s Inside This Comprehensive WMT Stock Analysis?

Forget the jargon and overly simplistic “buy now” advice you often hear. This report is designed to give you a holistic view of WMT stock, arming you with the insights you need to make genuinely informed decisions. Whether you’re a long-term value investor or a short-term trader, we’ve got you covered.

Here’s a quick peek at what we’ll explore:

  • Is now a good time to buy WMT stock? Our technical analysis suggests a “Neutral” stance, with the RSI sitting comfortably at 60.3. Fundamentally, the picture looks “solid,” driven by manageable debt levels and promising growth metrics.
  • Can Walmart’s core operations drive future growth? The company’s future growth trajectory will largely depend on its performance within the core Discount Stores segment and its agility in navigating intense competitive pressures.
  • What are the biggest risks facing Walmart? It’s important to acknowledge that Walmart carries a substantial $66.56 billion in debt. In a high-interest-rate environment, this could become a significant headwind. Moreover, competition remains fierce, coming from both established players and agile new entrants.

We’re going to dive into the intricate details, helping you understand if Walmart Inc. is the right investment to help your money grow, or if there are underlying issues that warrant caution. Stick with us as we unpack the data.

Key Metrics and Forecast Summary for WMT Stock

Let’s start with a snapshot of Walmart’s current market standing and what the forecasts are suggesting.

Metric Category Metric Value
💰 Current Price Live Market Price $105.32
🎯 Price Targets & Forecasts 1-Month Forecast $105.32 (-0.0%)
1-Year Forecast $133.80 (+27.0%)
Analyst Mean Target $118.21 (+12.2%)
📈 Trend & Momentum Trend 🚀 ▲ Bullish (Price > SMA 50/200)
RSI (14-day) 60.3 (Neutral) ⚖️
MACD 📈 Bullish Short-Term Trend (0.37)
📊 Key Technical Levels Above SMA 50 $103.67
Above SMA 200 $99.71
52-Week Range 📏 $79.81 – $109.58
⚡ Volatility Volatility (30d Ann.) 22.8% 🌊
Beta (vs. Market) 0.65x 🛡️ (Low Sensitivity)
🏢 Ownership Institutional Ownership 36.66% 🏠
Short % of Float 0.49% 😊 (Low Bearish Bets)

Currently, WMT’s stock is trading at $105.32. The technical indicators are painting a fairly bullish picture because the price is holding strong relative to both its 50-day ($103.67) and 200-day ($99.71) moving averages. This suggests that the stock has been building positive momentum recently.

However, it’s worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60.3, which puts it in a neutral zone – neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows a bullish short-term trend, implying that while the overall direction is up, we might see some minor pullbacks before the next significant upward move.

Looking back at the past year, WMT’s stock has traded between $79.81 and $109.58. This range tells us two important things: first, the stock has made a substantial recovery from its lows, and second, the current price is closer to the higher end of that range. This might mean that dramatic swings are less likely unless a major catalyst emerges. Analysts are anticipating modest but steady growth ahead, with a 1-year target of $133.80 (+27.0%) and an average consensus target of $118.21 (+12.2%). What’s more, with 36.66% institutional ownership and very low short interest (0.49%), it appears most large investors are betting on Walmart’s long-term success rather than a decline.

Price Forecast Chart for WMT

While we can’t display a live chart here, imagine a visual representation of WMT’s average prices over time. This chart would typically show recent actual average prices alongside a forecasted price range (Low, Average, High) derived from a predictive model like Prophet. This helps visualize potential future price movements.

Detailed WMT Stock Forecast Table

This detailed monthly forecast outlines the model’s expectations for WMT’s price evolution from $105.32 to $143.18. It includes projected ranges (Min, Avg, Max), the potential Return on Investment (ROI) based on the average projection versus the current price, and a derived model signal for each period.

Over the forecast horizon, from November 2025 to November 2026, WMT’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $105.32 and $143.18. The forecast uncertainty appears to remain relatively steady, with the price range showing little change throughout the horizon.

Month (Period) Min. Price Avg. Price Max. Price Potential ROI vs Current ($105.32) Model Signal
2025-11 $105.32 $105.32 $105.32 -0.0% Hold/Neutral
2025-12 $112.38 $117.24 $121.75 11.3% Consider Buy
2026-01 $113.56 $117.92 $122.17 12.0% Consider Buy
2026-02 $113.17 $120.08 $124.83 14.0% Consider Buy
2026-03 $114.35 $119.78 $126.09 13.7% Consider Buy
2026-04 $112.91 $119.01 $123.78 13.0% Consider Buy
2026-05 $117.63 $121.97 $127.81 15.8% Consider Buy
2026-06 $118.84 $124.05 $128.58 17.8% Consider Buy
2026-07 $118.33 $125.66 $130.15 19.3% Consider Buy
2026-08 $122.43 $128.45 $134.73 22.0% Consider Buy
2026-09 $125.24 $131.36 $139.37 24.7% Consider Buy
2026-10 $127.11 $133.80 $139.44 27.0% Consider Buy
2026-11 $129.61 $136.03 $143.18 29.2% Consider Buy

It’s crucial to remember that these forecasts are based on model-based estimates. They are inherently uncertain and can change rapidly due to evolving data and dynamic market conditions. They do not, and cannot, guarantee future prices.

Company Profile: Walmart Inc. (WMT)

Let’s get to know the company behind the stock. Walmart Inc. is a global retail and wholesale behemoth, known for its extensive network of stores, clubs, e-commerce platforms, and mobile applications worldwide.

Attribute Detail
Sector Consumer Defensive
Industry Discount Stores
Market Cap $840.50 billion
Employees 2,100,000
Website https://corporate.walmart.com

Walmart operates through three primary segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam’s Club. You’ll find its footprint in supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under the familiar Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands. They also run membership-only warehouse clubs and a host of e-commerce websites like walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, and PhonePe.

The company’s offerings are incredibly diverse, spanning grocery items (dry goods, snacks, dairy, meat, produce, deli, bakery, frozen foods, beverages), consumables (health and beauty aids, pet supplies, household chemicals, paper goods, baby products), and even fuel. They also provide comprehensive health and wellness products and services, including pharmacy, optical and hearing services, over-the-counter drugs, and nutrition products.

Beyond the essentials, Walmart offers home, hardlines, and seasonal items such as home improvement tools, outdoor living products, gardening supplies, furniture, apparel, jewelry, toys, and mattresses. You can also find consumer electronics, accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. Moreover, Walmart is involved in digital payment platforms and offers financial services like money transfers, bill payments, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access. They also market merchandise under their own private and licensed brands.

The company was formerly known as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., and officially changed its name to Walmart Inc. in February 2018. Founded in 1945, Walmart Inc. is headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas.

Total Valuation: How Walmart Stacks Up

While the market views Walmart Inc. as a dominant player in the Discount Stores industry with its $840.50 billion market cap, its enterprise value (EV) is even higher, coming in at $897.63 billion. What’s interesting is that $57.13 billion of that value is attributed to debt. Investors seem confident about Walmart Inc.’s future earnings, but this significant debt load is definitely something to keep an eye on.

When we look at the valuation ratios, they tell a compelling story. Walmart trades at 1.30x its revenue and 21.07x its EBITDA. These multiples are quite a premium compared to many of its peers, which reflects the company’s strong market position, established brand assets, and consistent performance. However, this also implies that the stock might have less room for error.

The upcoming earnings report on 2026-02-19 will be a crucial event, as it will show whether Walmart Inc.’s businesses can continue to grow into this valuation. Additionally, the 2025-12-12 ex-dividend date serves as a reminder that Walmart Inc. consistently rewards its shareholders even while investing heavily in future growth. Essentially, when you invest in WMT, you’re paying for quality – but quality, as we know, often comes with a higher price tag.

Metric Value
Market Cap $840.50 billion
Enterprise Value $897.63 billion
EV/Revenue (TTM) 1.30x
EV/EBITDA (TTM) 21.07x
Next Earnings Date 2026-02-19
Ex-Dividend Date 2025-12-12

Share Statistics: Who Owns Walmart (WMT)?

About 50.0% of Walmart’s shares are closely held by insiders or strategic investors, leaving approximately 4 billion shares available for public trading. Since the float is quite high, investors can typically trade this stock without causing significant price shifts. However, it’s always a consideration that the company could issue more shares, which might dilute the value of existing stock.

It’s reassuring to see that executives and major shareholders own a substantial stake, specifically 45.24% of the company. This strong insider ownership helps align their interests directly with those of public shareholders. Furthermore, institutional ownership is healthy, standing at 36.66%. This level of institutional backing often provides a degree of stability and confidence in the stock’s long-term prospects.

Now, let’s touch upon the impact of short interest on the market. With 39 million shares currently shorted, which represents just 0.49% of the float, it suggests that bearish sentiment is not particularly strong for Walmart. Investors should always monitor changes in short interest; a sharp increase could indicate growing doubts among some investors. Conversely, such very low short interest, especially during positive news cycles, can sometimes make a “short squeeze” less likely.

Metric Value
Shares Outstanding 8 billion
Implied Shares Outstanding 8 billion
Shares Float 4 billion
Insider Ownership 45.24%
Institutional Ownership 36.66%
Shares Short 39 million
Short Ratio (Days To Cover) 2.60x
Short % of Float 0.49%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 34 million
Short Date 2025-10-31

Valuation Metrics: Is WMT Stock Overpriced?

When we look at WMT’s valuation, a few metrics stand out. Its Trailing P/E ratio is currently 36.83x, and the Forward P/E is 38.72x. These figures reflect a premium valuation, suggesting that the market has stable earnings expectations for Walmart, but it certainly warrants careful consideration for potential investors.

Beyond earnings, the Price/Sales ratio of 1.21x and Price/Book of 9.32x show that the company trades at multiples that demand attention. These metrics offer valuable insights into Walmart’s market positioning and how investors perceive its assets and revenue generation.

From an enterprise value perspective, the EV/Revenue ratio of 1.30x suggests a reasonable valuation based on its top-line performance. However, the EV/EBITDA multiple of 21.07x might indicate a potentially stretched valuation. Together, these metrics provide a comprehensive view of WMT’s current market positioning and investor sentiment.

Metric Value
Trailing P/E 36.83x
Forward P/E 38.72x
Price/Sales (TTM) $1.21
Price/Book (MRQ) $9.32
EV/Revenue (TTM) 1.30x
EV/EBITDA (TTM) 21.07x

Financial Health: A Deep Dive into Walmart’s Balance Sheet

Walmart’s financial data presents a mix of strengths and areas for close monitoring. The Return on Equity (ROE) of 23.38% and Return on Assets (ROA) of 6.99% are quite impressive. These figures reflect a highly efficient use of capital, a characteristic often seen in well-managed, growing firms.

The Debt/Equity ratio of 0.69x, with $66.56 billion in total debt and $9.43 billion in cash, suggests that Walmart has taken on a manageable debt load to fuel its extensive operations and growth initiatives. What’s particularly reassuring is the company’s ability to generate $38.44 billion in operating cash flow over the last twelve months. This robust cash generation from its core business is a significant strength and indicates financial resilience.

However, we also need to address potential liquidity issues. The Current Ratio of 0.79x and Quick Ratio of 0.19x are both below 1.0. These low ratios could signal short-term liquidity challenges if the company’s cash cycle were to lengthen unexpectedly. Despite this, Walmart’s $8.34 billion in levered free cash flow demonstrates its capacity to generate substantial cash for shareholders even after meeting all its financial obligations, which is a powerful positive.

Metric Value
Return on Equity (ROE TTM) 23.38%
Return on Assets (ROA TTM) 6.99%
Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.69x
Total Cash (MRQ) $9.43 billion
Total Debt (MRQ) $66.56 billion
Current Ratio (MRQ) 0.79x
Quick Ratio (MRQ) 0.19x
Operating Cash Flow (TTM) $38.44 billion
Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) $8.34 billion

Financial Efficiency: How Effectively Does Walmart Operate?

Walmart’s efficiency metrics paint a picture of a company that is exceptionally adept at managing its assets and operations. Its Asset Turnover of 2.66x means it generates $2.66 in revenue for every dollar of assets. This is an excellent indicator of how efficiently Walmart utilizes its asset base to drive sales.

The Inventory Turnover of 9.07x suggests that Walmart sells and replaces its inventory roughly 9.1 times annually. This translates to approximately 40.2 Days Inventory Outstanding, showcasing good inventory management. Furthermore, a Receivables Turnover of 69.49x and 5.3 Days Sales Outstanding indicate outstanding collections; essentially, customers are paying their bills very quickly.

However, the Working Capital Turnover of -40.47x, supported by the Current Ratio of 0.79x, hints at concerning use of short-term assets to support sales and signals potential liquidity concerns. Yet, the Cash Conversion Cycle of approximately 45.5 days (partial) suggests it takes about 1.5 months to convert inventory and receivables into cash, indicating good overall cash flow efficiency.

Finally, Walmart’s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) stands at an impressive 16.41%. This demonstrates strong capital efficiency, highlighting how effectively the company generates returns from the capital it has invested. Overall, Walmart exhibits effective asset management that underpins strong profitability. As an investor, comparing these figures with industry peers would offer valuable perspective on its competitive positioning.

Metric Value
Asset Turnover (TTM) 2.66x
Inventory Turnover (TTM) 9.07x
Receivables Turnover (TTM) 69.49x
Working Capital Turnover (TTM) -40.47x
Current Ratio (MRQ) 0.79x
Days Sales Outstanding 5.3
Days Inventory Outstanding 40.2
Cash Conversion Cycle ~45.5 days (partial)
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC TTM) 16.41%

Profitability and Growth: Walmart’s Earning Power

An in-depth look at WMT’s margin performance reveals that the company has a solid grip on its costs and pricing strategies. Walmart is clearly successful in controlling its production costs, as evidenced by a healthy gross margin of 24.91%. Furthermore, it generates strong profits from its core operations, reflected in an operating margin of 4.39%.

The 6.19% EBITDA margin is a strong indicator that WMT is capable of generating robust cash flow from its operations before factoring in financing and tax strategies. All things considered, Walmart manages to retain approximately $3.080 in net profit for every dollar of revenue it generated over the last twelve months. While the business’s revenue is increasing at an aggressive rate of 4.80% year-over-year, investors should closely monitor whether this pace can be sustained without eroding those crucial profit margins.

WMT’s impressive $42.88 billion in EBITDA and $172.67 billion in gross profit underscore its raw earning power. Meanwhile, the $21.34 billion in net income reveals how effectively Walmart converts that power into tangible bottom-line results. The company appears to be striking a good balance between pursuing growth and maintaining profitability.

Despite healthy gross margins, there’s a noticeable difference between the company’s gross and net margins (24.91% vs. 3.08%). This gap is likely due to substantial operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes, which are key areas for investors to scrutinize. Moving forward, maintaining steady or improving margins will be absolutely critical. Walmart needs to vigorously defend its pricing power and control operating costs, as this will be essential for sustaining profitability, especially if revenue growth were to moderate.

Metric Value
Profit Margin (TTM) 3.08%
Operating Margin (TTM) 4.39%
Gross Margin (TTM) 24.91%
EBITDA Margin (TTM) 6.19%
Revenue (TTM) $693.15 billion
Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.80%
Gross Profit (TTM) $172.67 billion
EBITDA (TTM) $42.88 billion
Net Income (TTM) $21.34 billion
Earnings Growth (YoY) 57.30%

Dividends and Shareholder Returns: Is WMT a Good Income Stock?

Let’s talk about shareholder returns, specifically dividends. Walmart currently offers a $0.94 annual dividend per share, which translates to a dividend yield of 0.89%. This means that for every $100 invested, shareholders would receive $0.94 in dividends annually. It’s worth noting that this yield is below its 5-year average of 1.35%, suggesting either that the stock price has appreciated significantly (thereby reducing the yield) or that dividend growth hasn’t quite kept pace with historical trends.

Metric Value
Dividend Rate $0.94
Dividend Yield 0.89%
Payout Ratio 31.91%
5 Year Average Dividend Yield 1.35%
Trailing Dividend Rate $0.89
Trailing Dividend Yield 0.01%
Ex-Dividend Date 2025-12-12
Last Split Date 2024-02-26
Last Split Factor 3:1

Key Observations & Analysis:

  • The payout ratio of 31.91% is quite healthy. This indicates that Walmart uses only about 32% of its earnings to fund its dividends, leaving ample room for potential future increases or reinvestment back into growth initiatives.
  • The very low trailing yield of 0.01% hints at either a very recent dividend initiation or perhaps a special, non-recurring payout in the past. It’s always good to conduct further checks for consistency.
  • For those looking to receive the next dividend, you must own the stock before the upcoming ex-dividend date of 2025-12-12.

Investor Takeaway:

  • For Income Investors: The modest yield and low payout ratio suggest that Walmart’s dividends are safe and sustainable, but they might not be the primary reason to invest if your sole focus is high income. The emphasis here could be more on future dividend growth.
  • For Growth Investors: The low payout ratio is a strong signal that a significant majority of Walmart’s earnings are being reinvested into the business. This reinvestment could be a powerful catalyst for future price appreciation.

What to Watch For:

  • Keep an eye out for any announcements regarding dividend hikes, which could potentially bring the yield closer to its historical average.
  • Significant changes in the stock price itself would also alter the effective dividend yield.

Technical Analysis: WMT Stock Price Action (Current Price: $105.32)

The stock has been on a noticeable run, gaining +3.58% in just the last 15 days. However, as an astute investor, we need to be cautious about blindly chasing this momentum. Let’s break down what the charts are really telling us and how we might strategically position ourselves. The current trend for WMT is BULLISH.

Trend Strength – Still Bullish for Walmart

WMT is currently trading above its key moving averages, which unequivocally confirms that the underlying uptrend remains intact. Specifically, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $102.63 is acting as immediate dynamic support.

What This Means for Traders: As long as WMT maintains its position above the 20-day SMA ($102.63), the bullish momentum could very well continue. However, a rapid ascent can sometimes push the stock too far from its averages, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.

Momentum Check – Is WMT’s Momentum Fading?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 60.3, placing it squarely in a neutral zone. This indicates a balanced momentum, meaning it’s neither overbought nor oversold. Simultaneously, the MACD histogram remains positive, which confirms that the upward momentum is still in play, albeit potentially stabilizing.

Trading Strategy: This neutral RSI reading offers a good deal of flexibility. For your next directional clue, watch for a decisive MACD crossover or a clear break of a key support or resistance level.

Bollinger Bands – Testing Key Levels

The stock is currently pressing against the upper Bollinger Band, which sits at $105.53. This level often acts as short-term resistance, suggesting a potential pause or reversal if it fails to break through.

Key Levels to Watch for WMT:

  • Resistance: Keep an eye on $108.15, which represents a recent high. A decisive breakout above this level, especially with strong volume, could propel WMT higher.
  • Support: The immediate support lies at the 20-day SMA, $102.63. If this level breaks, we should anticipate a test of $99.73.

Volume Trends – Checking for Conviction

Trading volume is currently near its recent average. This provides neutral confirmation of the current price action, indicating that there isn’t an exceptional surge or decline in investor interest driving the current moves.

Support & Resistance – Your WMT Trading Plan

Here’s a clear trading plan based on these technical observations:

  • If WMT holds above $102.63: The bullish trend is likely to continue, with the next target being $108.15.
  • ⚠️ If it breaks below $102.63: Expect a potential dip toward $99.73.
  • 🛑 A drop below $99.73: This could trigger a deeper correction, possibly heading towards the 200-day SMA at $99.71.

Final Verdict – Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell WMT Stock?

  • Short-Term Traders: The trend is positive, but it’s wise to monitor for signs of exhaustion. A neutral stance might be best until a clearer signal emerges from the MACD or significant volume changes.
  • Long-Term Investors: The long-term uptrend remains valid as long as the price stays above the 200-day SMA ($99.71). A pullback to the 50-day SMA ($103.67) area could present a safer buying opportunity with a better risk-reward profile.
  • New Buyers: It’s generally advisable to avoid chasing the rally right now. Instead, wait for either a confirmed breakout above $108.15 with strong volume, or a pullback to the $102.63 area, which would offer a more attractive entry point.

Bottom Line: The technical indicators suggest that the current rally might be losing some short-term steam. While the long-term trend for WMT remains bullish, a correction seems plausible before the next significant upward move. Trade carefully and wait for clear confirmation at these key technical levels.

Bollinger Bands Chart for WMT

(Visual representation of Bollinger Bands, showing price relative to volatility envelopes. Current price is near the upper band.)

RSI Chart for WMT

(Visual representation of the 14-day Relative Strength Index, showing it in the neutral zone around 60.3.)

MACD Charts for WMT

(Visual representation of MACD and its histogram, confirming a positive but potentially stabilizing upward momentum.)

Historical Price & Volume Chart for WMT

(Visual representation of WMT’s historical closing price and trading volume, often with a 20-day average volume overlay. Buttons would typically allow changing the date range.)

Historical Performance: WMT’s Recent Price Action

In the recent trading period from November 07, 2025, to November 21, 2025, WMT’s stock price delivered a total return of +2.66%. During this time, the price experienced fluctuations, hitting a high of $108.15 and a low of $98.88. The average daily trading volume during this period was approximately 21,779,987 shares.

Recent Trading Data for WMT

For those who like to scrutinize the daily movements, here’s a snapshot of WMT’s recent trading activity:

Date Open High Low Close Volume
2025-11-21 $107.98 $108.15 $104.72 $105.32 41,391,700
2025-11-20 $103.94 $107.91 $102.68 $107.11 50,375,900
2025-11-19 $101.58 $101.71 $99.68 $100.61 22,157,000
2025-11-18 $102.98 $103.34 $101.38 $101.39 17,604,500
2025-11-17 $102.58 $103.32 $102.10 $102.95 15,289,400
2025-11-16 $100.20 $102.49 $98.88 $102.48 23,424,200
2025-11-15 $100.20 $102.49 $98.88 $102.48 23,424,200
2025-11-14 $100.20 $102.49 $98.88 $102.48 23,424,200
2025-11-13 $103.59 $103.93 $102.02 $102.54 18,088,500
2025-11-12 $103.35 $103.60 $102.66 $103.44 12,084,400
2025-11-11 $102.50 $103.74 $102.32 $103.44 13,182,100
2025-11-10 $102.15 $102.67 $101.60 $102.42 14,507,600
2025-11-09 $102.13 $102.97 $101.73 $102.59 17,248,700
2025-11-08 $102.13 $102.97 $101.73 $102.59 17,248,700
2025-11-07 $102.13 $102.97 $101.73 $102.59 17,248,700

Stock Price Statistics: WMT Volatility and Momentum

When we zoom out to look at the past year, WMT’s stock has seen a high of $109.58 and a low of $79.81. This moderate gap indicates that the stock has experienced notable price swings over the last twelve months. Currently, the 50-day moving average at $103.50 is positioned slightly above the 200-day moving average of $97.85. This configuration, often referred to as a ‘golden cross,’ is typically seen as a bullish signal, pointing to positive long-term momentum.

With a Beta of 0.65x, Walmart stock tends to be less volatile than the broader market, moving about 35% less in response to overall market changes. This characteristic, combined with a moderate 30-day annualized volatility of 22.8%, suggests that while the stock does experience frequent price swings, they are generally not as extreme as some other market participants. For investors, this implies potential for gains, but also a degree of downside risk due to its inherent volatility. These indicators are crucial when you’re deciding on position sizing or optimal entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that aims to balance stability with growth exposure.

Metric Value
52 Week High $109.58
52 Week Low $79.81
50 Day MA $103.50
200 Day MA $97.85
Beta 0.65x
Volatility (30d Ann.) 22.8% 📉

Quarterly Earnings Performance: WMT’s Recent Results

Walmart’s recent quarterly performance showcases a robust financial picture. In its latest reported quarter (2025-Q3), the company posted a substantial revenue of $177.40 billion and a net income of $7.03 billion.

What’s particularly impressive is the quarter-over-quarter revenue change, which saw a healthy increase of +7.1%. Looking at the bigger picture, the year-over-year revenue growth stands at a solid +4.8%, indicating consistent top-line expansion.

Recent Quarterly Results (Last 4 Quarters)

Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS Gross Margin
2025-Q3 $177.40 billion $7.03 billion 0.88x 25.2%
2025-Q2 $165.61 billion $4.49 billion 0.56x 24.9%
2025-Q1 $180.55 billion $5.25 billion 0.65x 24.6%
2024-Q4 $169.59 billion $4.58 billion 0.57x 24.9%

Growth Metrics: WMT’s Expansion Trajectory

These growth metrics further underscore Walmart’s operational momentum:

Metric Value
QoQ Revenue Growth +7.1%
QoQ Net Income Growth +56.6%
YoY Revenue Growth +4.8%

Upcoming Earnings for WMT

For investors keen on upcoming catalysts, mark your calendars for Walmart’s next earnings report and call:

Event Date/Time
Next Report February 19, 2026
Earnings Call February 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM ET

Short Selling Information: Bearish Bets on WMT

Let’s examine the short interest surrounding Walmart stock. Currently, there’s 39 million worth of short interest in WMT, and the short ratio, or “days to cover,” stands at 2.6x. This means that, based on the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take approximately three days for all short positions to be covered. This relatively low level of short interest suggests that short sellers are not expressing significant concern for the company’s prospects, and the risk of a prolonged ‘short squeeze’ remains relatively low.

Furthermore, with only 0.49% of the public float sold short, a very low percentage of the available shares are being bet against. This indicates a general lack of strong bearish sentiment among investors. While this level has recently increased from 34 million shares, suggesting a slight shift in bearish sentiment, the overall low level means the market tends to feel more confident. This also reduces the risks of sudden, sharp price swings driven by short-covering activities.

Metric Value
Shares Short 39 million
Short Ratio (Days To Cover) 2.60x
Short % of Float 0.49%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 34 million
Short Date 2025-10-31

Risk Analysis: Understanding WMT’s Risk Profile

Walmart’s risk profile indicates moderate volatility, with an annualized volatility of 17.9%. This suggests a moderate level of investment risk, meaning that while WMT isn’t a penny stock, its price can still experience noticeable movements.

The Sharpe ratio, currently at 0.70x, points to mixed risk-adjusted returns. For context, a higher Sharpe ratio generally indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Meanwhile, a maximum drawdown of -25.74% tells us that during adverse market conditions, the stock has historically experienced moderate downside risk from its peak.

The Value at Risk (VaR) at a 5% confidence level shows a potential loss of -1.53% in the worst 5% of scenarios. This is a statistical measure of potential loss. The Sortino ratio of 0.94x is also worth noting; it specifically focuses on downside risk, offering additional insight into how well Walmart performs relative to the risks of negative returns.

Ultimately, investors should carefully consider these risk metrics in conjunction with their personal risk tolerance and broader investment objectives.

Metric Value
Volatility (Annualized) 17.9%
Value at Risk (5%) -1.53%
Value at Risk (1%) -2.95%
Sharpe Ratio 0.70x
Sortino Ratio 0.94x
Maximum Drawdown -25.74%
Skewness 0.56x
Kurtosis 22.60x

Sentiment Analysis: What’s the Market Saying About WMT?

Current market sentiment analysis for WMT reveals a cautiously positive outlook. The composite sentiment score stands at 0.49x, with a confidence level of 41.2%. This positive sentiment is a blend of insights gathered from various data sources, including news coverage, analyst recommendations, and activity in the options market.

Let’s break down these sentiment components:

  • News analysis currently shows a Neutral sentiment at 0.07x.
  • Analyst consensus, however, indicates a strong Positive sentiment at 0.80x.
  • Options market sentiment also reflects a Neutral stance, coming in at 0.04x.

These sentiment indicators offer a valuable qualitative layer to your investment perspective and should always be considered alongside a thorough fundamental and technical analysis for a truly comprehensive view.

Metric Value
Composite Sentiment Score 0.49x
Sentiment Classification Positive
Sentiment Confidence 41.2%
News Sentiment Neutral (0.07x)
Analyst Sentiment Positive (0.80x)
Options Sentiment Neutral (0.04x)
Put/Call Ratio 0.48x

Peer Comparison: Walmart (WMT) vs. Competitors

When we compare Walmart (WMT) to its industry peers, it’s clear who the market leader is. WMT absolutely dominates with an $840.50 billion market cap, significantly outstripping Costco (COST) at $398.69 billion, Target (TGT) at $39.67 billion, and Dollar General (DG) at $22.38 billion.

Walmart’s P/E ratio of 36.83x reflects a moderate valuation for its size and stability. In contrast, Target (P/E 10.62x) and Dollar General (P/E 18.83x) trade at much lower multiples, which often indicates more mature or slower-growth businesses. Regarding revenue growth, WMT shows a modest 4.80% expansion.

Walmart’s 3.08% net margin indicates positive but modest profitability, characteristic of the retail sector’s tight margins. What truly stands out is WMT’s exceptional 23.38% Return on Equity (ROE), signaling highly efficient use of shareholder equity to generate profits. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 68.72, WMT maintains moderate leverage, while Target (132) and Dollar General (213) show even higher leverage. Finally, WMT’s impressive 89.00% dividend yield provides substantial income to shareholders, alongside COST (58.00%) and TGT (5.20%).

Metric WMT COST TGT DG
Market Cap $840.50 billion $398.69 billion $39.67 billion $22.38 billion
P/E Ratio 36.83 49.26 10.62 18.83
Revenue Growth 4.80% 8.10% -1.60% 5.10%
Net Margin 3.08% 2.94% 3.58% 2.86%
EPS 2.86 18.25 8.25 5.40
ROE 23.38% 30.69% 25.09% 15.60%
Debt-to-Equity 68.72 34.07 132 213
Dividend Yield 89.00% 58.00% 5.20% 2.32%
52-Week Range 79.43 – 109.58 868.14 – 1073.82 83.44 – 138.95 65.27 – 117.24

Insider Transactions: Recent Activity in WMT Stock (Last 3 Months)

The insider transaction data for Walmart reveals a discernible bearish trend over the last three months, with 41 sell transactions compared to just 10 buys. This amounts to a total of $602.2 million in net sales, which includes 6 transactions where pricing was estimated.

When we focus specifically on discretionary open-market activity, the trend is even clearer: there were 28 market sales and no market purchases. This strongly indicates that insiders are actively reducing their positions in Walmart stock. Transaction prices show some consistency, with sales averaging around $101.95 and purchases at $103.06, suggesting insiders are transacting fairly close to current market levels.

The recent market transactions predominantly lean towards selling, with insiders continuing to reduce their exposure in the near term. The scale of this discretionary market selling activity should definitely give investors pause. When individuals with the deepest insight into company operations are reducing their holdings, it warrants a very careful evaluation of the near-term risk/reward dynamics for the stock.

Insider Name Type Shares Changed Price Shares After Transaction Date Filing Date
Chojnowski David SELL (Tax Payment) [F] -252 $102.95 143,289 2025-11-18 2025-11-20
Bartlett Daniel J SELL (Sale) [S] -1,630 $102.58 642,788 2025-11-17 2025-11-19
Nicholas Christopher James SELL (Tax Payment) [F] -121 $101.59 573,340 2025-11-04 2025-11-06
Rainey John D SELL (Sale) [S] -862 $101.63 619,518 2025-11-03 2025-11-04
Rainey John D SELL (Sale) [S] -1,338 $100.89 620,380 2025-11-03 2025-11-04
McMillon C Douglas SELL (Sale) [S] -19,416 $107.18 4,354,162 2025-10-23 2025-10-24
McLay Kathryn J. SELL (Sale) [S] -4,000 $107.75 1,044,455 2025-10-20 2025-10-22
Furner John R. SELL (Sale) [S] -78 $109.49 892,940 2025-10-16 2025-10-17
Furner John R. SELL (Sale) [S] -2,623 $108.63 893,018 2025-10-16 2025-10-17
Furner John R. SELL (Sale) [S] -6,107 $108.10 895,641 2025-10-16 2025-10-17
Furner John R. SELL (Sale) [S] -4,317 $106.78 901,748 2025-10-16 2025-10-17
Bartlett Daniel J SELL (Sale) [S] -1,550 $107.46 644,418 2025-10-15 2025-10-17
Nicholas Christopher James SELL (Tax Payment) [F] -121 $102.70 573,461 2025-10-07 2025-10-09
Chojnowski David SELL (Tax Payment) [F] -250 $102.70 143,535 2025-10-07 2025-10-09
Rainey John D SELL (Sale) [S] -644 $101.90 621,718 2025-10-01 2025-10-02
Rainey John D SELL (Sale) [S] -1,556 $101.10 622,362 2025-10-01 2025-10-02
Moritz Robert Edward Jr. BUY (Award) [A] +279 $103.06 11,261 2025-09-30 2025-10-02
Harris Carla A BUY (Award) [A] +170 $103.06 49,800 2025-09-30 2025-10-02
Niccol Brian R BUY (Award) [A] +279 $103.06 9,593 2025-09-30 2025-10-02
Conde Cesar BUY (Award) [A] +279 $103.06 31,099 2025-09-30 2025-10-02
Friar Sarah BUY (Award) [A] +340 $103.06 59,049 2025-09-30 2025-10-02
MAYER MARISSA A BUY (Award) [A] +279 $103.06 129,642 2025-09-30 2025-10-02
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK BUY (Award) [A] +364 $103.06 155,326 2025-09-30 2025-10-02
STEPHENSON RANDALL L BUY (Award) [A] +461 $103.06 62,975 2025-09-30 2025-10-02
Walton Steuart L BUY (Award) [A] +340 $103.06 79,292 2025-09-30 2025-10-02
Penner Gregory Boyd BUY (Award) [A] +552 $103.06 257,385 2025-09-30 2025-10-02
McMillon C Douglas SELL (Sale) [S] -19,416 $103.21 4,373,576 2025-09-25 2025-09-26
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Other) [J] -566,000 ~$102.82 535,097,200 2025-09-22 2025-09-24
McLay Kathryn J. SELL (Sale) [S] -4,000 $103.83 1,048,455 2025-09-19 2025-09-22
Furner John R. SELL (Sale) [S] -13,125 $103.74 906,064 2025-09-18 2025-09-22
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Sale) [S] -2,389,000 $103.45 535,663,200 2025-09-16 2025-09-17
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Other) [J] -2,550,000 ~$103.69 538,052,200 2025-09-15 2025-09-17
Bartlett Daniel J SELL (Sale) [S] -1,610 $103.71 645,968 2025-09-15 2025-09-16
Kumar Suresh SELL (Sale) [S] -30,000 $103.47 1,787,200 2025-09-12 2025-09-16
Nicholas Christopher James SELL (Tax Payment) [F] -121 $102.28 573,582 2025-09-09 2025-09-11
Chojnowski David SELL (Tax Payment) [F] -250 $102.28 143,781 2025-09-09 2025-09-11
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Other) [J] -5,526,000 ~$102.28 540,602,200 2025-09-08 2025-09-10
Rainey John D SELL (Sale) [S] -686 $97.65 623,918 2025-09-02 2025-09-03
Rainey John D SELL (Sale) [S] -1,514 $97.25 624,604 2025-09-02 2025-09-03
McMillon C Douglas SELL (Sale) [S] -19,416 $95.97 4,392,985 2025-08-28 2025-09-02
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Sale) [S] -3,246 $97.01 546,128,200 2025-08-29 2025-08-29
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Sale) [S] -1,367,984 $96.63 546,131,446 2025-08-29 2025-08-29
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Sale) [S] -767,418 $96.22 547,499,430 2025-08-28 2025-08-29
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Sale) [S] -398,852 $96.09 548,266,848 2025-08-27 2025-08-29
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Other) [J] -1,600,000 ~$96.08 548,665,700 2025-08-27 2025-08-29
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Sale) [S] -688,586 $96.05 550,265,700 2025-08-26 2025-08-26
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Other) [J] -210,000 ~$96.05 550,954,286 2025-08-26 2025-08-26
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Other) [J] -184,000 ~$96.07 551,164,286 2025-08-25 2025-08-26
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Sale) [S] -55,601 $97.44 551,348,286 2025-08-25 2025-08-26
Walton Family Holdings Trust SELL (Sale) [S] -261,686 $96.53 551,403,887 2025-08-25 2025-08-26

Risk Factors: Key Considerations for WMT Investors

Potential investors in Walmart (WMT) should be aware of several risk factors that could influence the stock’s performance. The following list highlights key considerations based on the available data and market dynamics, but it’s important to remember that this may not encompass all possible risks. Always conduct your own thorough research.

  • ⚠️ Current Ratio (0.79x) is below 1.0: This suggests potential short-term liquidity challenges. While Walmart has strong cash flow, a current ratio below 1.0 means that its current assets are less than its current liabilities, which could be a concern in a tight credit environment or during unexpected operational disruptions.
  • ⚠️ General market fluctuations and economic conditions: As a prominent player in the Consumer Defensive sector, Walmart’s performance can still be impacted by broader market downturns, shifts in consumer spending habits, inflation, or economic recessions. Even defensive stocks aren’t immune to widespread economic pressures.

Analyst Insights and Consensus: What Wall Street Says About WMT

Here’s the collective wisdom from Wall Street analysts regarding WMT stock. The average recommendation for Walmart is a compelling ‘Strong Buy’. This consensus view is based on the opinions of 39 analysts who have contributed their forecasts.

The mean target price projected by these analysts is $118.21, with individual targets ranging from a low of $60.00 to a high of $130.00. Based on this mean target of $118.21, it implies a potential upside of approximately +12.2% from the current trading price of $105.32. This reflects an overall optimistic sentiment among analysts regarding Walmart’s future outlook.

Metric Value
Recommendation Strong Buy
Mean Target Price $118.21
High Target Price $130.00
Low Target Price $60.00
Number of Analyst Opinions 39

Recent News and Developments Affecting WMT

Keeping an eye on recent headlines can offer valuable insights into current events and market sentiment surrounding Walmart. Here are some of the latest developments:

Conclusion and Outlook: Your Comprehensive WMT Summary

So, where does this leave us with Walmart Inc. (WMT)? Let’s synthesize the key takeaways from our analysis.

Short-Term Technical Snapshot

  • Overall Technical Sentiment: Strong Bullish
  • Price Trend vs MAs: Bullish (trading above SMA50/200)
  • Momentum (RSI): Neutral (60.3)
  • 📊 Support / Resistance (30d): ~$98.88 / ~$108.15

Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook

  • 1-Year Avg. Forecast: Potential +27.0% average change, targeting ≈$133.80
  • Fundamental Health: Assessment Incomplete (strong ROE at 23.38%, manageable D/E at 0.69x)
  • ⚠️ Valuation Snapshot: Appears Elevated (Forward P/E at 38.72x)
  • Recent Growth (YoY): Moderate (Revenue: 4.80%, Earnings: 57.30%)
  • Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy (Mean Target: $118.21)

Overall Assessment & Outlook for WMT

Overall, WMT presents a compelling picture, blending a “Strong Bullish” technical sentiment with a fundamentally “moderate” health assessment. The current valuation, however, appears “Elevated” with a Forward P/E of 38.72x, which is something to consider carefully. Predictive models project a 1-year path that indicates potential upside of +27.0%, targeting approximately $133.80.

When making your investment decision, it’s crucial to factor in all these elements against your personal risk tolerance and investment timeline. Walmart is a retail giant with proven resilience and growth, but its premium valuation and specific liquidity metrics warrant a balanced perspective.

Important: This analysis synthesizes model outputs and publicly available data for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Market conditions change rapidly. Always conduct thorough independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions about Walmart Stock (WMT)

Here are some of the most common questions investors ask about Walmart (WMT) stock, answered with insights from our analysis.

  1. What is the WMT stock price prediction for the next year (2025-2026)?

    Based on current models, the average 1-year price forecast for WMT is approximately $133.80. This represents a potential +27.0% change from the recent price of $105.32. Remember, this is a model-driven estimate, not a guarantee, and actual prices will fluctuate based on numerous market factors.

  2. Will WMT stock go up or down?

    The 1-year forecast model suggests the price might increase significantly on average (+27.0% potential). However, the short-term direction is highly uncertain and heavily influenced by prevailing market sentiment (currently ‘Strong Bullish’), breaking news, and overall economic conditions. Technical indicators (see Technical Analysis section) provide additional clues for near-term direction.

  3. Is WMT stock a good investment right now?

    Determining if WMT is a ‘good buy’ requires evaluating multiple factors. Technical sentiment is ‘Strong Bullish’, while the 1-year forecast suggests a +27.0% potential upside. Technically, the RSI indicates neutral conditions (RSI: 60.3), suggesting balanced momentum. Consider its valuation, financial health, and growth prospects.

    However, note that 2 potentially significant risk factors specific to WMT were identified (see Risk Factors section), particularly its Current Ratio. Align these factors with your personal investment strategy and risk tolerance.

  4. How volatile is WMT stock?

    Based on the recent 30-day price action, WMT’s annualized volatility is approximately 22.8%. This level is currently considered moderate, indicating a degree of recent price fluctuation. This aligns with its Beta of 0.65x (see Stock Price Statistics). Higher volatility means larger potential price swings, both up and down.

  5. What is WMT’s P/E ratio and what does it mean?

    WMT’s Trailing P/E ratio (based on past earnings) is 36.83x, which is considered relatively high, potentially implying that the market expects strong future growth or that the stock might be overvalued. The Forward P/E (based on expected earnings) is 38.72x. A P/E ratio indicates how much investors are paying per dollar of earnings. It’s always beneficial to compare this to industry peers and historical levels. A high P/E isn’t necessarily bad if robust growth prospects justify it.

  6. What are the key upcoming events for WMT?

    A key upcoming event for income investors is the ex-dividend date on 2025-12-12. Beyond this, investors should closely monitor macroeconomic shifts, competitive actions within the retail sector, and any major corporate announcements or earnings reports.

  7. What does WMT’s liquidity position reveal about its financial health?

    WMT’s financial health includes a Current Ratio of 0.79x, which is below 1.0 and suggests potential short-term liquidity challenges. However, its robust operating cash flow of $38.44 billion and levered free cash flow of $8.34 billion provide a significant buffer. These strong cash flow figures are critical factors in its ability to fund operations and manage its debt obligations despite the lower liquidity ratios.

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