Hey there, fellow investors! Today, we’re diving deep into the world of semiconductors to explore Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM). This isn’t just another tech giant; it’s a colossal $1.50 trillion powerhouse that truly sits at the heart of the global technology sector. As an investor, you’re likely asking: Is TSM’s current stock price a fair reflection of its value? And how well is it positioned for future growth in this incredibly competitive industry?
Currently, TSM’s stock is trading at $289.96 as of November 2025. What’s interesting is that while it’s seeing a short-term pullback, it remains within a larger, robust uptrend. The stock is currently trading just below its 50-day moving average but comfortably above its 200-day average, signaling underlying strength.
Wall Street analysts are certainly optimistic, with a consensus 1-year price target of $341.91, suggesting a potential +17.9% upside from today’s price. However, it’s worth noting the stock exhibits significant volatility, with an annualized rate of 24.3%. This hints at the potential for some pretty wide price swings, so keep that in mind.
Looking at the fundamentals, TSM presents a nuanced picture. On one hand, the company boasts impressive revenue growth, up 30.30% year-over-year. This kind of expansion is a testament to its pivotal role in the semiconductor industry. On the other hand, it operates in an intensely competitive environment, a factor that always warrants careful consideration.
What’s Inside This TSM Stock Analysis?
We’re not just throwing numbers at you here. Our goal is to break down TSM’s stock from every angle, giving you the insights you need to make a truly informed decision:
- Is now a good time to buy TSM? Our technical indicators lean towards “Neutral” for the short term, with the RSI sitting at a balanced 49.3. Fundamentally, things are looking solid, driven by manageable debt levels and robust growth metrics.
- Can TSM’s core operations drive future growth? Absolutely. The company’s future growth will largely depend on its continued performance in its core semiconductor manufacturing operations and its strategic ability to navigate competitive pressures.
- What are the biggest risks for TSM? A significant point to consider is the company’s debt, totaling 1.03 T. While manageable, this could become a headwind in a rising interest rate environment. Plus, competition is fierce, coming from both established industry giants and innovative newcomers.
Unlike some analyses that either use overly complex jargon or offer overly simplistic “just buy” advice, we’re here to provide clear, actionable information. Whether you’re a long-term investor or chasing short-term gains, understanding these details is key. So, is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited the right investment for your portfolio? Let’s dive into the data and uncover the full story.
TSM Key Financial Metrics & Market Forecast Summary
Let’s take a quick snapshot of TSM’s vital statistics and what the market is projecting right now. This summary will give you a clear overview of where the stock stands today and where it might be headed.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $289.96 | Live Market Price |
| 1-Month Forecast | $289.96 | -0.0% Change |
| 1-Year Forecast | $325.97 | +12.4% Upside |
| Analyst Mean Target | $341.91 | +17.9% Upside |
| Trend | ⚖️ ● Mixed Trend | |
| RSI (14-day) | 49.3 | Neutral ⚖️ |
| MACD | 0.74 | Bullish Short-Term Trend |
| Above SMA 50 | ❌ $291.21 | |
| Above SMA 200 | ✅ $246.85 | |
| 52-Week Range | 📏 $134.25 – $311.37 | |
| Volatility (30d Ann.) | 24.3% | 🌊 |
| Beta (vs. Market) | 1.26x | 🎢 (High Sensitivity) |
| Green Days (30d) | 20/30 (67%) | 🟢 |
| Institutional Ownership | 16.28% | 🏠 |
| Short % of Float | 0.67% | 😊 (Low Bearish Bets) |
Right now, TSM’s stock is holding at $289.96. The technical picture shows a mixed pattern. While the price is just shy of its 50-day moving average (at $291.21), it’s trading well above its 200-day moving average (at $246.85), which is often seen as a sign of positive long-term momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 49.3, sitting squarely in neutral territory. This tells us that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for a move in either direction. However, the MACD indicator is flashing a bullish short-term trend with a value of 0.74, suggesting that any minor pullbacks might be temporary before the next upward push.
Over the past year, TSM’s stock has navigated a significant range, trading between $134.25 and $311.37. This wide range indicates a strong recovery from its lows, and the current price is near the higher end of this spectrum. Analysts are forecasting a respectable 1-year target of $325.97, implying a +12.4% gain, with a higher consensus target of $341.91, offering a +17.9% potential upside.
What’s more, with 16.28% institutional ownership and a very low short interest of just 0.67% of the float, it appears large institutional investors are largely backing TSM’s long-term prospects. This low short interest suggests that bearish bets against the company are minimal, which can be a positive signal for sustained growth.
Detailed TSM Price Forecast Table (2025-11 to 2026-11)
Let’s break down the month-by-month forecast for TSM, which suggests an overall price range fluctuating between approximately $221.35 and $385.38 over the next year. The table below details the projected price bands, potential Return on Investment (ROI) compared to the current price of $289.96, and the resulting model signal for each period.
| Month (Period) | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Potential ROI vs Current ($289.96) | Model Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11 | $289.96 | $289.96 | $289.96 | -0.0% | Hold/Neutral |
| 2025-12 | $231.32 | $252.47 | $270.32 | -12.9% | Consider Short |
| 2026-01 | $245.26 | $267.30 | $285.24 | -7.8% | Consider Short |
| 2026-02 | $262.08 | $279.72 | $293.52 | -3.5% | Consider Short |
| 2026-03 | $246.91 | $270.51 | $296.11 | -6.7% | Consider Short |
| 2026-04 | $232.90 | $254.68 | $274.66 | -12.2% | Consider Short |
| 2026-05 | $221.35 | $249.24 | $272.91 | -14.0% | Consider Short |
| 2026-06 | $247.99 | $273.16 | $303.66 | -5.8% | Consider Short |
| 2026-07 | $268.03 | $297.03 | $331.66 | 2.4% | Hold/Neutral |
| 2026-08 | $285.32 | $309.55 | $341.17 | 6.8% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-09 | $285.37 | $309.12 | $338.09 | 6.6% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-10 | $286.17 | $325.97 | $364.74 | 12.4% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-11 | $315.92 | $348.70 | $385.38 | 20.3% | Consider Buy |
As you can see, over the forecast horizon from November 2025 to November 2026, TSM’s price is projected to fluctuate significantly by this model. The initial months suggest some potential downward pressure, but the latter half of the forecast year indicates a strong rebound and upward trend.
It’s important to remember that these forecasts are generated by sophisticated models and come with inherent uncertainty. Market conditions can shift rapidly, new data emerges constantly, and geopolitical events can always impact prices. Therefore, future prices are never guaranteed, and these projections should be used as a guide, not a definitive prediction.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) Company Profile & Business Overview
Before we dive deeper into the numbers, let’s get a clear picture of what TSM actually does. Understanding its core business gives us crucial context for all the analysis that follows.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market Cap | 1.50 T |
| Employees | 83,825 |
| Website | tsmc.com |
Business Overview
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, along with its various subsidiaries, is a global leader in the manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices. They operate across Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and many other international markets.
TSM offers a wide array of wafer fabrication processes. This includes advanced technologies for manufacturing complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and various other specialized processes. Essentially, they are the backbone for countless technological innovations worldwide.
Beyond manufacturing, the company also provides extensive customer and engineering support services, manufactures masks, and actively invests in technology start-up companies. They are also involved in the research, design, development, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters. TSM’s products are absolutely critical components used in high-performance computing, the latest smartphones, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, automotive electronics, and digital consumer electronics.
Incorporated in 1987, TSM has grown into an indispensable player in the global technology supply chain, headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan. Their reach and impact are truly global, making them a fascinating company to analyze for any investor.
TSM Total Valuation & Market Position
When assessing a company like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, valuation goes beyond just market capitalization. It’s about understanding the full financial picture, including debt and cash, which significantly impact its true enterprise value.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 1.50 T |
| Enterprise Value | -218.07 B |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 1.61x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 2.35x |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2025-12-11 |
While TSM boasts an impressive market cap of 1.50 T, its enterprise value is notably lower at -218.07 B. This significant difference is a strong indicator of the company’s robust net cash position, estimated at approximately 1.72 T. This kind of financial strength provides TSM with a substantial cushion and considerable flexibility for future investments, research and development, or even shareholder returns.
The valuation ratios also paint an interesting picture. With an EV/Revenue (TTM) of 1.61x and an EV/EBITDA (TTM) of 2.35x, TSM trades at multiples that reflect its strong market position and valuable brand assets. These figures suggest the market acknowledges TSM’s quality and dominance within the semiconductor industry. However, it also implies that the stock might have less room for error, as much of its strength is already priced in.
The upcoming ex-dividend date of 2025-12-11 serves as a reminder that TSM consistently rewards its shareholders, even as it continues to invest heavily in growth and innovation. In essence, you’re paying for a premium company with a solid foundation, and quality often comes with a higher price tag.
TSM Share Statistics & Ownership Insights
Understanding who owns a company’s shares and how many are available for trading can offer valuable insights into its market dynamics and potential for price movements. Let’s look at TSM’s share statistics.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 5 B |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 5 B |
| Shares Float | 24 B |
| Insider Ownership | 0.04% |
| Institutional Ownership | 16.28% |
| Shares Short | 35 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 2.50x |
| Short % of Float | 0.67% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | 34 M |
| Short Date | 2025-11-14 |
Almost all of TSM’s 5 billion shares are publicly available as float, meaning a significant portion isn’t locked up by insiders or restricted. This high float generally allows investors to trade the stock without causing overly dramatic price shifts. However, it also means the company could issue more shares in the future, which might dilute the value of existing stock.
Interestingly, executives and major shareholders hold a very small portion of the company, just 0.04%. This low insider ownership might suggest they don’t have a substantial amount of “skin in the game” if the company faces challenges. Institutional ownership is also relatively modest at 16.28%, which is lower than what you’d typically find in many widely held stocks. If big institutional investors are not heavily invested, it could indicate concerns about future performance or simply a lack of broad focus on the company.
Now, let’s consider the impact of short interest. Currently, about 35 million shares are shorted, representing just 0.67% of the float. This is a very low percentage, indicating that bearish sentiment among investors is quite limited. The low short ratio of 2.50x (days to cover) also suggests that it wouldn’t take long for short positions to be covered if the stock started to rise.
While TSM stock is highly liquid and easy to trade, its price may require stronger support from large institutional traders or company insiders to experience sustained, significant growth. Keep an eye on changes in short interest; a sharp increase could signal growing doubt among investors, while consistently low short interest in the face of positive news can sometimes prevent a “short squeeze.”
TSM Valuation Metrics: P/E, Price/Sales, EV Ratios
Valuation metrics are crucial for understanding how the market perceives TSM’s earnings, revenue, and assets relative to its current stock price. Let’s break down these key ratios.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 30.02x |
| Forward P/E | 35.89x |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | $0.41 |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | $1.50 |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 1.61x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 2.35x |
TSM’s Trailing P/E ratio stands at 30.02x, with its Forward P/E at 35.89x. These figures suggest a premium valuation, which often implies that the market expects strong future growth or perceives the company as a high-quality asset. Investors should carefully consider if this premium is justified by TSM’s growth prospects and industry leadership. While a high P/E can indicate overvaluation, it can also reflect a stable earnings outlook.
Moving to its Price/Sales (TTM) ratio of $0.41 and Price/Book (MRQ) of $1.50, these multiples provide additional context on how the market values TSM’s sales and book value. These metrics offer insight into the company’s market positioning and relative value compared to its underlying assets and revenue generation. They generally indicate that TSM is trading at reasonable multiples when viewed against its sales and book value.
From an enterprise value perspective, the EV/Revenue ratio of 1.61x signals a reasonable valuation based on its revenue generation. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.35x suggests a fair valuation when considering its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Together, these valuation metrics offer a comprehensive view, painting a picture of a company valued for its strong market presence and operational efficiency.
TSM Financial Health: Returns, Debt, & Liquidity Analysis
TSM’s financial health appears remarkably robust, showcasing several critical strengths that should give investors confidence. Let’s delve into the key indicators.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Return on Equity (ROE TTM) | 34.66% |
| Return on Assets (ROA TTM) | 16.63% |
| Debt/Equity (MRQ) | 0.20x |
| Total Cash (MRQ) | 2.75 T |
| Total Debt (MRQ) | 1.03 T |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 2.69x |
| Quick Ratio (MRQ) | 2.40x |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | 2.17 T |
| Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) | 628.51 B |
The company’s Return on Equity (ROE) at 34.66% and Return on Assets (ROA) at 16.63% are excellent. These figures highlight TSM’s highly efficient use of capital, generating substantial profits from both shareholder equity and its overall asset base. This level of efficiency is often characteristic of fast-growing and well-managed firms.
TSM’s Debt/Equity ratio of 0.20x is particularly reassuring. With 1.03 T in total debt against a massive 2.75 T in cash, it’s clear the company has taken on a very manageable debt load to fuel its operations and strategic growth initiatives. This strong net cash position provides a significant financial buffer.
Even with its debt, TSM’s ability to generate an impressive 2.17 T in operating cash flow (TTM) demonstrates that its core business is a consistent cash-generating machine. This steady cash production is a fundamental strength, allowing the company to fund operations, invest in future growth, and potentially return capital to shareholders.
Furthermore, the Current Ratio of 2.69x and Quick Ratio of 2.40x indicate a solid liquidity position. These ratios confirm that TSM can comfortably cover its short-term liabilities with its current assets, even excluding inventory in the case of the Quick Ratio. Additionally, 628.51 B in levered free cash flow suggests the company can generate significant cash for shareholders after meeting all its financial obligations.
For investors, this robust financial profile paints a picture of a resilient and exceptionally well-managed company. The low debt levels and strong liquidity provide a substantial safety net, offering the flexibility to invest in future growth, weather potential economic downturns, or increase returns to shareholders through dividends or buybacks. For deeper insights into their financials, you can always refer to their SEC filings.
TSM Financial Efficiency: Asset Turnover & Cash Conversion Cycle
Financial efficiency metrics help us understand how effectively Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company uses its assets to generate revenue and manage its working capital. Let’s break down these critical indicators.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset Turnover (TTM) | 0.54x |
| Inventory Turnover (TTM) | 4.41x |
| Receivables Turnover (TTM) | 13.42x |
| Working Capital Turnover (TTM) | 2.04x |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 2.69x |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 27.2 |
| Days Inventory Outstanding | 82.8 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | ~110.0 days (partial) |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC TTM) | 29.87% |
TSM’s Asset Turnover of 0.54x indicates that it generates $0.54 in revenue for every dollar of assets it holds. This suggests moderate efficiency in utilizing its extensive asset base. While not extremely high, it’s typical for capital-intensive industries like semiconductor manufacturing.
The Inventory Turnover of 4.41x means that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company sells and replaces its inventory approximately 4.4 times annually. This translates to about 82.8 Days Inventory Outstanding, suggesting a moderate pace of inventory movement. Meanwhile, a Receivables Turnover of 13.42x and 27.2 Days Sales Outstanding reflect excellent collections, indicating that customers pay their invoices very quickly, which is a significant positive for cash flow.
With a Working Capital Turnover of 2.04x, TSM demonstrates efficient use of its short-term assets to support sales. This is further bolstered by a strong Current Ratio of 2.69x, signaling excellent liquidity and the ability to meet short-term obligations comfortably.
The Cash Conversion Cycle, estimated at approximately ~110.0 days (partial), suggests it takes about 3.7 months for TSM to convert its investments in inventory and receivables into cash. This extended cycle could potentially put some strain on working capital, and it’s an area where efficiency improvements could further boost cash flow.
Finally, TSM’s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) stands at an impressive 29.87%. This high ROIC highlights the company’s strong capital efficiency, showcasing how effectively it generates returns from the capital invested in its operations. Overall, while TSM demonstrates significant strengths, higher asset utilization could potentially enhance profitability even further. Investors should compare these figures with industry peers to fully assess TSM’s competitive positioning.
TSM Profitability & Growth: Margins, Revenue, and Earnings
Analyzing TSM’s profitability and growth metrics provides crucial insights into its operational effectiveness and potential for future expansion. Let’s examine how well the company converts its revenue into profit and sustains its growth trajectory.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Profit Margin (TTM) | 43.29% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 50.58% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 58.98% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 68.42% |
| Revenue (TTM) | 3.63 T |
| Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY) | 30.30% |
| Gross Profit (TTM) | 2.14 T |
| EBITDA (TTM) | 2.48 T |
| Net Income (TTM) | 1.57 T |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | 39.10% |
TSM’s margin performance demonstrates solid control over its costs and pricing power. A gross margin of 58.98% indicates strong success in managing production costs. Furthermore, the company’s operating margin of 50.58% reflects excellent profitability from its core operations before interest and taxes.
An impressive EBITDA margin of 68.42% highlights TSM’s ability to generate robust cash flow from its operations, even before accounting for financing and tax strategies. Ultimately, TSM has managed to retain approximately $0.4329 in net profit for every dollar of revenue over the last twelve months, as shown by its 43.29% profit margin.
The business is also experiencing aggressive revenue growth, up 30.30% year-over-year. Investors should keep a close eye on whether this rapid pace can be sustained without eroding those healthy profit margins. This is a common challenge for rapidly expanding companies.
With 2.48 T in EBITDA and 2.14 T in gross profit, TSM clearly possesses significant raw earning power. Its 1.57 T in net income further reveals how effectively it converts that power into bottom-line results. The company appears to be striking a good balance between pursuing growth opportunities and maintaining strong profitability.
It’s worth noting the difference between the gross and net margins (58.98% vs. 43.29%). This gap likely stems from substantial operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes, which are key areas for investors to monitor. Moving forward, maintaining steady or improving margins will be critical. TSM needs to vigorously defend its pricing power and diligently control operating costs, especially if revenue growth were to moderate in the future.
TSM Dividends & Shareholder Returns Analysis
For investors focused on income or long-term value, TSM’s dividend policy and shareholder returns are important considerations. Let’s break down the current picture.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Rate (Annual) | $3.37 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.16% |
| Payout Ratio | 29.79% |
| 5 Year Average Dividend Yield | 1.64% |
| Trailing Dividend Rate | $20.50 |
| Trailing Dividend Yield | 0.07% |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2025-12-11 |
| Last Split Date | 2009-07-15 |
| Last Split Factor | 1005:1000 |
Dividend Summary & Investor Implications
TSM currently offers an annual dividend of $3.37 per share, which translates to a dividend yield of 1.16%. This means for every $100 you invest, you’d receive approximately $1.16 in dividends annually. It’s worth noting that this yield is below its 5-year average of 1.64%. This could indicate that the stock price has appreciated significantly (thus lowering the yield relative to the fixed dividend) or that dividend growth hasn’t quite kept pace with historical trends.
Key Observations & Analysis:
- The payout ratio is a conservative 29.79%. This is a very positive sign, as it means TSM uses only about 30% of its earnings to fund dividends. This leaves ample room for future dividend increases, reinvestment back into the business for growth, or even share buybacks.
- The very low trailing dividend yield of 0.07% and trailing rate of $20.50 is unusual. This might suggest a recent dividend initiation, a special non-recurring payout, or perhaps a different reporting period for the trailing data. It warrants further investigation for consistency if dividends are a primary investment driver for you.
- To receive the next dividend payment, investors must own the stock before the upcoming ex-dividend date of 2025-12-11.
- The last stock split (1005:1000 in 2009) is quite old and likely has no direct bearing on the current valuation or investment thesis.
Investor Takeaway:
- Income Investors: While the dividends are safe due to the low payout ratio, the modest yield isn’t likely the primary draw. The appeal here might be more about potential future dividend growth rather than immediate high income.
- Growth Investors: The low payout ratio is a strong signal that a significant portion of earnings is being reinvested into the company. This capital allocation strategy is typically aimed at driving future price appreciation and business expansion.
- Watch For: Keep an eye out for any announcements regarding dividend hikes, which could bring the yield closer to its historical average. Also, monitor significant stock price movements, as they will directly impact the effective dividend yield.
TSM Technical Analysis: Charting Current Trends & Momentum
Alright, let’s zoom in on the technical picture for TSM. The stock is currently trading at $289.96, and while the overall trend is still bullish, we’ve seen some downward pressure recently, with a -0.42% loss in the last 15 days. Is this a buying opportunity, or a warning sign? Let’s break down the key technical levels and indicators.
Trend Strength – Still Bullish
TSM is currently trading above its key moving averages, which is a reassuring sign for the broader uptrend. Specifically, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $283.87 is acting as immediate dynamic support. As long as TSM holds above this level, the bullish momentum could very well continue.
What This Means for Traders?
Holding above the 20-day SMA ($283.87) suggests the bulls are still in control. However, if the stock rises too quickly and moves far from its averages, the risk of a swift pullback increases. It’s a balance between momentum and sustainability.
Momentum Check – Is Momentum Fading?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for TSM is at 49.3, placing it right in the neutral zone. This indicates a balanced momentum, with neither strong overbought nor oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is positive, which generally confirms that upward momentum is still present, albeit perhaps not strongly accelerating.
Trading Strategy:
This neutral RSI provides flexibility, but it also means we’re waiting for a clearer signal. Keep an eye out for a decisive MACD crossover or a break of a key support or resistance level to get a better sense of the next directional move.
Bollinger Bands – Testing Key Levels
TSM’s stock price is currently pressing against the upper Bollinger Band at $295.19. This level often acts as short-term resistance, so a break above it could signal further strength, while rejection could lead to a pullback.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: The recent high of $310.12 is a critical resistance level. A confirmed breakout above this point, especially with strong volume, could propel TSM higher.
- Support: The immediate support to watch is the 20-day SMA at $283.87. If this level breaks, expect a test of the next support at $272.56.
Volume Trends – Checking for Conviction
Trading volume for TSM is currently near its recent average. This provides neutral confirmation of the current price action. It’s not signaling overwhelming conviction from either buyers or sellers.
What’s the Concern?
A low-volume rally can often be prone to sharp reversals. If we don’t see a significant surge in buying interest to validate any upward moves, a pullback becomes more likely. Strong volume ideally accompanies strong price movements to confirm their validity.
Support & Resistance – The Trading Plan
Here’s a simplified trading plan based on TSM’s key technical levels:
- ✅ If TSM holds above $283.87 (20-day SMA), the bullish trend is likely to continue, with the next target being $310.12.
- ⚠️ If it breaks below $283.87, expect a dip towards $272.56.
- 🛑 A drop below $272.56 could trigger a deeper correction, potentially heading towards the 200-day SMA at $246.85.
Final Verdict – Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell TSM?
Based on our technical analysis, here’s a breakdown for different types of investors:
- Short-Term Traders: The trend is generally positive, but there are signs the rally might be losing a bit of steam in the immediate term. A neutral stance might be best until a clearer signal emerges from MACD crossovers or a decisive volume surge.
- Long-Term Investors: The long-term uptrend for TSM remains valid as long as the price stays above the 200-day SMA ($246.85). A pullback towards the 50-day SMA ($291.21) area could actually present a safer buying opportunity for those looking to accumulate shares.
- New Buyers: It might be wise to avoid chasing the rally right at this moment. Instead, wait for a confirmed breakout above $310.12 with strong volume to validate the next leg up, or patiently await a pullback to the $283.87 area, which would offer a more attractive risk/reward entry point.
Bottom Line: The technical indicators suggest that TSM’s recent rally might be pausing or running out of short-term momentum. While the underlying long-term trend remains bullish, a correction seems plausible before the next significant upward move. Trade carefully and always wait for confirmation at these critical key levels.
TSM Historical Price Performance & Trading Volume
Let’s take a look at TSM’s recent historical performance to understand how the stock has behaved over a short period, giving us context for its current movements.
In the recent trading period from November 12, 2025, to November 26, 2025, TSM’s stock price experienced a total return of -0.23%. During this timeframe, the price saw a high of $294.87 and a low of $266.82, indicating some volatility within this two-week span. The average daily trading volume during this period was approximately 13,942,913 shares.
Recent TSM Daily Trading Data
Here’s a detailed look at TSM’s daily trading activity for the past couple of weeks, showing the open, high, low, close prices, and volume for each day.
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | $289.10 | $292.81 | $287.73 | $289.96 | 12,220,300 |
| 2025-11-25 | $282.73 | $285.40 | $273.08 | $284.68 | 13,726,800 |
| 2025-11-24 | $273.19 | $285.06 | $273.19 | $284.64 | 13,570,300 |
| 2025-11-23 | $272.81 | $278.69 | $266.82 | $275.06 | 20,872,800 |
| 2025-11-22 | $272.81 | $278.69 | $266.82 | $275.06 | 20,872,800 |
| 2025-11-21 | $272.81 | $278.69 | $266.82 | $275.06 | 20,872,800 |
| 2025-11-20 | $292.21 | $292.85 | $276.41 | $277.50 | 15,747,300 |
| 2025-11-19 | $276.92 | $284.55 | $276.32 | $282.37 | 11,179,200 |
| 2025-11-18 | $277.55 | $280.19 | $272.72 | $277.91 | 11,850,400 |
| 2025-11-17 | $281.44 | $286.53 | $279.80 | $282.01 | 10,227,100 |
| 2025-11-16 | $275.91 | $286.86 | $273.23 | $284.82 | 11,486,800 |
| 2025-11-15 | $275.91 | $286.86 | $273.23 | $284.82 | 11,486,800 |
| 2025-11-14 | $275.91 | $286.86 | $273.23 | $284.82 | 11,486,800 |
| 2025-11-13 | $289.17 | $289.50 | $280.00 | $282.20 | 13,827,600 |
| 2025-11-12 | $293.70 | $294.87 | $289.58 | $290.62 | 9,715,900 |
TSM Stock Price Statistics & Volatility
Understanding TSM’s price statistics gives us a better sense of its historical trading range and how sensitive it is to broader market movements. These figures are crucial for risk assessment and investment planning.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week High | $311.37 |
| 52 Week Low | $134.25 |
| 50 Day MA | $289.25 |
| 200 Day MA | $225.73 |
| Beta | 1.26x |
| Volatility (30d Ann.) | 24.3% |
Over the past year, TSM’s stock has traded within a significant range, reaching a high of $311.37 and a low of $134.25. This wide gap tells us that the stock has experienced considerable fluctuations, likely influenced by broader market sentiment, industry-specific news, and the company’s own developments. It underscores the dynamic nature of investing in the semiconductor sector.
Currently, the 50-day moving average stands at $289.25, which is above the 200-day moving average of $225.73. This configuration, often referred to as a ‘golden cross,’ is typically viewed as a bullish signal, suggesting positive long-term momentum and a healthy uptrend.
TSM carries a Beta of 1.26x. This means the stock tends to move more sharply than the broader market—specifically, about 26% more volatile. Combined with a moderate 30-day annualized volatility of 24.3%, it’s clear that TSM experiences frequent price swings. For investors, this implies the potential for higher gains, but also an increased downside risk.
These indicators are vital when deciding on position sizing or timing your entries, especially if your portfolio aims to balance stability with exposure to growth. High-beta stocks like TSM can amplify market movements, offering greater rewards but also requiring a higher tolerance for risk.
TSM Quarterly Earnings Performance & Growth
Reviewing TSM’s recent quarterly performance is essential for understanding its current financial trajectory and growth momentum. Let’s look at the numbers from the last four quarters to see how the company is performing.
TSM’s latest reported quarter shows strong financial results, with revenue hitting 989.92 B and net income reaching 452.30 B. The quarter-over-quarter revenue change was a healthy +6.0%, indicating consistent short-term growth. Even more impressively, the year-over-year revenue growth stands at a robust +30.3%, demonstrating significant expansion over a longer period.
Recent TSM Quarterly Results Breakdown
Here’s a detailed breakdown of TSM’s performance over the last four quarters:
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS | Gross Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q3 | 989.92 B | 452.30 B | 87.20x | 59.5% |
| 2025-Q2 | 933.79 B | 398.27 B | 76.80x | 58.6% |
| 2025-Q1 | 839.25 B | 360.73 B | 69.70x | 58.8% |
| 2024-Q4 | 868.46 B | 359.79 B | 72.24x | 59.0% |
Growth Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| QoQ Revenue Growth | +6.0% |
| QoQ Net Income Growth | +13.6% |
| YoY Revenue Growth | +30.3% |
These quarterly results clearly show a company with strong operational momentum. The consistent gross margins, coupled with impressive revenue and net income growth, highlight TSM’s ability to not only expand its top line but also effectively convert that growth into bottom-line profits. The significant year-over-year revenue growth of +30.3% is particularly encouraging, underscoring its leadership in the semiconductor industry.
TSM Short Selling Activity & Bearish Sentiment
Examining short selling activity can give us a glimpse into how bearish investors perceive a stock. High short interest can signal concerns about future performance, while low short interest often indicates confidence.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Short | 35 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 2.50x |
| Short % of Float | 0.67% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | 34 M |
| Short Date | 2025-11-14 |
Currently, there are 35 million shares of TSM held short. The short ratio, also known as days to cover, is 2.5x. This means that at the stock’s recent average daily trading volume, it would take approximately 2.5 days for all short positions to be covered. This is a relatively low figure, suggesting that short sellers do not currently exert significant control over TSM’s price action.
With only 0.67% of the public float sold short, a very small percentage of available shares are being bet against. This indicates a general lack of strong bearish sentiment among investors. This level has remained relatively stable compared to the prior month’s value of 34 million shares shorted, suggesting no significant shift in bearish outlook.
Because the amount of short interest is generally low, the market tends to feel more confident in the stock’s direction. The risks of dramatic price swings from sudden short-covering activities, often called a ‘short squeeze,’ are considerably reduced. This is generally a positive sign for long-term investors, as it implies less speculative pressure on the downside.
TSM Risk Analysis: Volatility, Drawdown, and VaR
Understanding the risks associated with TSM stock is just as crucial as evaluating its potential for growth. These metrics help quantify the level of uncertainty and potential downside investors might face.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Volatility (Annualized) | 27.9% |
| Value at Risk (5%) | -2.66% |
| Value at Risk (1%) | -4.65% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.76x |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.08x |
| Maximum Drawdown | -56.47% |
| Skewness | 0.33x |
| Kurtosis | 7.46x |
TSM’s risk profile reveals a moderate level of volatility, with an annualized volatility of 27.9%. This indicates a moderate investment risk, meaning the stock’s price can fluctuate by nearly 28% in a year. While this offers potential for higher returns, it also implies a higher degree of price swings.
The Sharpe ratio of 0.76x suggests mixed risk-adjusted returns. A Sharpe ratio below 1 can indicate that the returns generated might not fully compensate for the level of risk taken. However, it’s important to compare this to industry benchmarks. The maximum drawdown of -56.47% is a significant figure, highlighting that TSM has experienced substantial downside risk during adverse market conditions in the past. This is a crucial point for investors with lower risk tolerance.
The Value at Risk (VaR) at a 5% confidence level indicates a potential loss of -2.66% in the worst 5% of scenarios. At a 1% confidence level, the potential loss increases to -4.65%. These VaR figures provide a statistical estimate of potential portfolio losses over a given time horizon, which can be useful for managing risk exposure.
The Sortino ratio, at 1.08x, is particularly useful as it focuses specifically on downside risk, measuring returns against only negative volatility. A Sortino ratio above 1 is generally considered good, as it suggests the asset is generating sufficient return for the bad volatility it experiences. The positive skewness of 0.33x suggests that positive returns are more frequent than negative ones, while a high kurtosis of 7.46x indicates that extreme price movements (both positive and negative) are more common than in a normal distribution.
Investors should carefully consider these comprehensive risk metrics alongside their own risk tolerance and overall investment objectives. TSM, like many growth stocks in a dynamic sector, comes with its share of volatility, and understanding these numbers is key to making informed decisions.
TSM Market Sentiment Analysis: News, Analysts & Options
Market sentiment can often influence short-term price movements, reflecting the collective mood of investors. Let’s analyze the current sentiment surrounding TSM from various angles.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Sentiment Score | 0.23x |
| Sentiment Classification | Positive |
| Sentiment Confidence | 43.1% |
| News Sentiment | Neutral (0.09x) |
| Analyst Sentiment | Positive (0.40x) |
| Options Sentiment | Neutral (-0.01x) |
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.51x |
Current market sentiment analysis for TSM reveals a cautiously positive outlook, reflected in a composite sentiment score of 0.23x with a confidence level of 43.1%. This overall positive sentiment is derived from a blend of data sources, including recent news coverage, analyst recommendations, and activity in the options market.
Breaking down the sentiment components, we see that news analysis shows a largely Neutral sentiment (0.09x), indicating that recent headlines haven’t been overwhelmingly positive or negative. However, the analyst consensus is distinctly Positive (0.40x), suggesting that professional analysts hold a favorable view of TSM’s prospects. Options market sentiment, on the other hand, appears Neutral (-0.01x), implying no strong directional bets from options traders.
The Put/Call Ratio of 0.51x further supports this relatively neutral-to-positive stance. A ratio below 1 generally indicates more call options (bullish bets) are being traded than put options (bearish bets). These sentiment indicators, while not standalone predictors, should always be considered alongside fundamental and technical analysis for a truly comprehensive investment perspective on TSM.
TSM Peer Comparison: Semiconductor Industry Benchmarking
To truly understand TSM’s standing, it’s vital to compare its performance against key competitors and peers within the highly dynamic semiconductor industry. This benchmarking helps put its valuation, growth, and profitability into perspective.
| Metric | TSM | 2330.TW | 2454.TW | 3711.TW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.50T | $37.73T | $2.22T | $994.81B |
| P/E Ratio | 30.02 | 24.03 | 20.87 | 29.46 |
| Revenue Growth | 30.30% | 30.30% | 7.80% | 5.30% |
| Net Margin | 43.29% | 43.29% | 18.19% | 5.60% |
| EPS | 9.66 | 60.56 | 66.60 | 7.74 |
| ROE | 34.66% | 34.66% | 25.11% | 10.86% |
| Debt-to-Equity | 20.44 | 20.44 | 5.76 | 84.14 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.16% | 1.43% | 4.03% | 2.30% |
| 52-Week Range | 133.34 – 311.37 | 773.61 – 1525.00 | 1117.99 – 1545.00 | 110.81 – 251.50 |
TSM’s market capitalization of $1.50 trillion places it as a significant player, though it trails some of the largest companies in the sector like 2330.TW (which has a market cap of $37.73 trillion) and 2454.TW ($2.22 trillion). However, it remains substantially ahead of others like 3711.TW ($994.81 billion). This indicates TSM’s strong, but not undisputed, position at the top tier of the semiconductor industry.
With a P/E ratio of 30.02, TSM maintains a moderate valuation relative to its peers. When we look at revenue growth, TSM truly shines with a robust 30.3% expansion, matching 2330.TW’s strong momentum and significantly outpacing 2454.TW (7.80%) and 3711.TW (5.30%). This highlights TSM’s exceptional ability to grow its top line.
TSM’s profitability is also impressive, boasting a strong 43.29% net margin, on par with 2330.TW and considerably higher than 2454.TW (18.19%) and 3711.TW (5.60%). This demonstrates TSM’s effectiveness in converting revenue into profit. Furthermore, an exceptional Return on Equity (ROE) of 34.66% indicates highly efficient use of shareholder equity, again matching 2330.TW and outperforming other peers.
From a balance sheet perspective, TSM’s conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 20.44 suggests a strong financial position, on par with 2330.TW, though 2454.TW shows even lower debt levels (5.76). Finally, TSM offers a dividend yield of 1.16%, providing some income to shareholders, though lower than 2330.TW (1.43%) and 2454.TW (4.03%).
Overall, TSM stands out with its strong growth, profitability, and capital efficiency within its peer group, solidifying its position as a leading semiconductor manufacturer.
TSM Insider Transactions Activity
Insider transaction data can sometimes offer clues about a company’s prospects, as executives and major shareholders often have the most intimate knowledge of its operations. However, for TSM, there is currently no insider transaction data available for the past three months.
Key Risk Factors for TSM Investors
While TSM presents a compelling investment case, it’s crucial for potential investors to be fully aware of the inherent risks. Here are some key considerations based on current data and market dynamics:
- ⚠️ The current price of $289.96 is trading just below the 50-Day SMA of $291.21. This could indicate potential short-term weakness or a lack of strong immediate momentum, suggesting caution for short-term traders.
- ⚠️ Like all companies in the Technology sector, TSM is susceptible to general market fluctuations and broader economic conditions. Downturns in global economies or shifts in consumer spending on technology can directly impact demand for semiconductors.
- ⚠️ The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical and capital-intensive. Economic slowdowns can lead to oversupply, price erosion, and reduced capital expenditure by customers, directly impacting TSM’s revenue and profitability.
- ⚠️ Geopolitical tensions, particularly between major global powers, could significantly impact TSM’s operations, supply chain, and access to key markets, given its critical role in global technology.
- ⚠️ Intense competition from both established players and emerging foundries could pressure TSM’s pricing power and market share. Continuous innovation and significant R&D investment are required to maintain its technological lead.
- ⚠️ The company’s reliance on a few major customers, while a strength, also poses a concentration risk. Any significant reduction in orders from these key clients could have a material adverse effect on TSM’s financial performance.
TSM Analyst Insights & Wall Street Consensus
What are the experts on Wall Street saying about TSM? Getting a consensus from professional analysts can provide valuable perspective on the stock’s future potential and expected performance.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | Buy |
| Mean Target Price | $341.91 |
| High Target Price | $450.00 |
| Low Target Price | $210.00 |
| Number of Analyst Opinions | 15 |
The overall consensus from Wall Street analysts on TSM is a strong ‘Buy’. This recommendation is based on the opinions of 15 analysts who cover the stock. Their average price target is $341.91, with a range extending from a low of $210.00 to a high of $450.00. This indicates a broad agreement that TSM has significant upside potential.
The average target price of $341.91 suggests a potential upside of roughly 17.9% compared to the current price of $289.96. This reflects a generally positive analyst sentiment regarding TSM’s future outlook and its position within the semiconductor industry. While analysts’ targets should always be taken with a grain of salt, this strong consensus ‘Buy’ rating suggests confidence in the company’s long-term growth trajectory and market leadership.
Latest TSM News & Recent Developments
Staying updated on the latest news and developments is paramount for any investor, as current events can significantly impact a stock’s performance. Here’s a roundup of recent headlines related to TSM:
- Dow Jones Futures Rise After Market Holiday; ASML Leads 5 Stocks Flashing Buy Signals
Publisher: Investor’s Business Daily
Published: 2025-11-28T03:02:46Z
This news highlights a broader positive market sentiment in the tech sector, with key players like ASML (a critical supplier to TSM) showing strong signals, which can indirectly benefit TSM. - TSMC Sues Ex-Executive Over Move to Join Intel
Publisher: Bloomberg
Published: 2025-11-28T00:35:40Z
This development points to TSM’s commitment to protecting its intellectual property and maintaining its competitive edge against rivals like Intel. Such legal actions underscore the fierce competition in the high-stakes semiconductor industry. - Could This Be the Best Way to Invest in AI Without Buying a Single Chip Stock?
Publisher: Motley Fool
Published: 2025-11-27T20:03:00Z
While not directly about TSM, this article reflects the intense investor interest in AI and the broader semiconductor ecosystem. TSM, as a primary manufacturer of AI chips, is central to this narrative, even if the article suggests alternative investment approaches. - Taiwan-US semiconductor investment talks may expand chip production and training
Publisher: Investment Monitor
Published: 2025-11-27T15:14:19Z
This news indicates ongoing geopolitical and economic collaborations that could boost TSM’s global footprint and production capabilities, particularly in the critical U.S. market, addressing supply chain diversification. - Taiwan raids former TSMC exec’s homes in trade secrets probe
Publisher: Reuters Videos
Published: 2025-11-27T13:11:09Z
Similar to the Bloomberg report, this highlights the ongoing efforts to safeguard TSM’s proprietary technology. It underscores the value of their innovations and the measures taken to prevent industrial espionage.
These recent headlines underscore TSM’s strategic importance, its role in global technology and AI, and the ongoing efforts to protect its competitive advantages in a highly dynamic and competitive industry landscape. Investors should monitor these and other news sources for continued developments.
TSM Stock Conclusion & Investment Outlook
Synthesizing all the data, TSM presents a fascinating picture for investors. We’ve seen a blend of strong fundamentals, promising growth, and some mixed signals from the technical side, all within a highly competitive yet essential industry.
Short-Term Technical Snapshot
- ▲ Overall Technical Sentiment: Strong Bullish
- ● Price Trend vs MAs: Mixed (currently below SMA50, but holding above SMA200)
- ● Momentum (RSI): Neutral (at 49.3, indicating balanced forces)
- 📊 Support / Resistance (30d): ~$266.82 (strong support) / ~$310.12 (key resistance)
The short-term technicals suggest a temporary pause in momentum, with the price dipping below the 50-day SMA. However, the overall long-term bullish trend remains intact, supported by the price staying above the 200-day SMA.
Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook
- ▲ 1-Year Avg. Forecast: Around +12.4% average change, targeting approximately $325.97.
- ● Fundamental Health: Assessed as strong, highlighted by an impressive ROE of 34.66% and a very manageable Debt/Equity ratio of 0.20x.
- ⚠️ Valuation Snapshot: Appears elevated, particularly with a Forward P/E of 35.89x, suggesting the market is pricing in significant future growth.
- 📈 Recent Growth (YoY): Highly positive, with Revenue up 30.30% and Earnings up 39.10%.
- ▲ Analyst Consensus: A strong ‘Buy’ rating with a mean target of $341.91.
Fundamentally, TSM is a powerhouse with excellent profitability, efficient capital use, and robust growth. The analyst community strongly believes in its future, projecting solid upside. However, its current valuation metrics suggest it’s not a cheap stock, reflecting its quality and market position.
Also Read – PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Stock Analysis: Technical Analysis, Forecast, & Recent News
Overall Assessment & Outlook
Synthesizing all the data, TSM currently displays strong long-term bullish technicals, despite some short-term mixed signals. This is coupled with robust fundamentals that underscore its industry leadership and operational efficiency. While its valuation appears elevated, it’s largely justified by its impressive growth rates and critical role in the global technology ecosystem.
The 1-year forecast model suggests a potential upside of +12.4% towards $325.97, aligning with positive analyst sentiment. Investors should carefully weigh these compelling factors against the potential risks outlined earlier, such as market volatility and intense competition, and align them with their own strategic investment goals and risk tolerance.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About TSM Stock
What is the TSM stock price prediction for the next year (2025-2026)?
Based on current models, the average 1-year price forecast for TSM is approximately $325.97. This represents a potential +12.4% change from the recent price of $289.96. Remember, this is a model-driven estimate, not a guarantee, and actual prices will fluctuate based on numerous market factors.
Will TSM stock go up or down?
The 1-year forecast model suggests the price might show strong gains on average (+12.4% potential). However, the short-term direction is highly uncertain and heavily influenced by prevailing market sentiment (currently ‘Strong Bullish’), breaking news, and overall economic conditions. Technical indicators, such as the neutral RSI at 49.3, provide clues for near-term direction, indicating balanced momentum.
Is TSM stock a good investment right now?
Whether TSM is a ‘good buy’ now involves balancing various elements: ‘Strong Bullish’ technicals, a +12.4% forecast potential, and solid fundamentals. Technically, the RSI indicates neutral conditions (RSI: 49.3), indicating balanced momentum. You should weigh the company’s valuation, stability, and growth against your own investment goals and risk profile. This report is informational; consult a financial advisor before investing.
How volatile is TSM stock?
Based on the recent 30-day price action, TSM’s annualized volatility is approximately 24.3%. This level is currently considered average, indicating a moderate degree of recent price fluctuation. This aligns with its Beta of 1.26x, which means it tends to move about 26% more than the broader market. Higher volatility implies larger potential price swings, both up and down.
What is TSM’s P/E ratio and what does it mean?
TSM’s Trailing P/E ratio (based on past earnings) is 30.02x, which is considered relatively high, implying the market expects strong growth or sees it as a premium-quality stock. The Forward P/E (based on expected earnings) is 35.89x. A P/E ratio indicates how much investors are paying per dollar of earnings. You should compare this to industry peers and TSM’s historical levels. A high P/E isn’t necessarily bad if strong growth prospects justify it.
What are the key upcoming events for TSM?
A key upcoming event for income investors is the ex-dividend date on 2025-12-11. Beyond this, investors should closely monitor macroeconomic shifts, competitive actions within the semiconductor industry, and any major corporate announcements, especially regarding expansion plans or technological advancements.
What does TSM’s liquidity position reveal about its financial health?
TSM’s financial health includes a strong Current Ratio of 2.69x, suggesting it can comfortably cover its short-term liabilities. Furthermore, its robust operating cash flow of 2.17 T and levered free cash flow of 628.51 B provide a significant buffer. These strong cash flow metrics are critical factors in its ability to fund operations, invest in growth, and manage debt effectively.