ORCL Stock Analysis: Unpacking Oracle Corporation’s Investment Potential (2025)
Welcome, fellow investors, to a deep dive into the world of Oracle Corporation (ORCL). If you’re pondering an investment in this tech giant, you’ve come to the right place. We’re going to meticulously dissect ORCL’s stock, peering into its financials, market performance, and future prospects, to help you make a truly informed decision.
Oracle, a colossal $566.62 billion player in the Software – Infrastructure industry, is a name synonymous with enterprise technology. The big question on every investor’s mind is whether its current stock price truly reflects its value and if the company is geared for sustainable growth. Is now the opportune moment to add Oracle to your portfolio? Let’s explore the data together.
What You Need to Know About ORCL Stock Right Now
As of November 2025, ORCL stock is trading at $198.76. Interestingly, it’s currently showing signs of a bearish trend, sitting below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This might raise a red flag for some, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle.
On the flip side, Wall Street analysts maintain a rather optimistic outlook. Their consensus 1-year price target is a robust $344.98, suggesting a potential upside of approximately +49.5%. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge the stock’s significant annualized volatility of 39.2%, which means we can expect some notable price swings.
Oracle’s financial health presents a mixed bag. The company boasts solid revenue growth, up 12.20% year-over-year, which is definitely a positive sign. Yet, it also carries a substantial debt load, with a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.53x. This is a critical factor we’ll need to scrutinize further.
What’s Inside This Comprehensive ORCL Stock Analysis?
We’re not just throwing numbers at you; our goal is to provide a clear, insightful breakdown of ORCL from every angle. This way, you can confidently decide if it aligns with your investment strategy.
- Is now a good time to buy ORCL? Our technical analysis points to a “Bearish” trend, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling oversold conditions at 19.1. Fundamentally, caution is advised, primarily due to debt levels and certain growth metrics.
- Can Oracle’s core operations drive future growth? The company’s future success will largely hinge on its performance within its core Software – Infrastructure segments and its ability to effectively navigate intense competitive pressures.
- What are the biggest risks for Oracle investors? Oracle carries $111.62 billion in debt. This could become a significant headwind, especially in a rising interest rate environment. Moreover, the industry is fiercely competitive, with both established players and emerging innovators vying for market share.
Many stock analyses either use overly complicated jargon or offer simplistic “buy now” advice without sufficient context. We aim for clarity and actionable information, whether you’re a long-term investor or a short-term trader. So, is Oracle Corporation the right investment to help your money grow? Let’s dive into the detailed data to uncover the full story.
Key Metrics and Forecast Summary for ORCL Stock
Let’s quickly recap some of the most important metrics for ORCL and what they might mean for your investment decisions.
| Metric Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | Live Market Price | $198.76 |
| Price Targets & Forecasts | 1-Month Forecast | $198.76 (0.0% change) |
| 1-Year Forecast | $297.13 (+49.5% upside) | |
| Analyst Mean Target | $344.98 (+73.6% upside) | |
| Trend & Momentum | Trend | 📉 ▼ Bearish (Price < SMA 50/200) |
| RSI (14-day) | 19.1 (Oversold) | |
| MACD | 📉 Bearish Short-Term Trend (-1.27) | |
| Key Technical Levels | Above SMA 50 | ❌ $264.28 |
| Above SMA 200 | ❌ $235.10 | |
| 52-Week Range | 📏 $118.86 – $345.72 | |
| Volatility | Volatility (30d Ann.) | 39.2% |
| Beta (vs. Market) | 1.64x (High Sensitivity) | |
| Ownership | Institutional Ownership | 45.25% |
| Short % of Float | 1.22% (Low Bearish Bets) |
Right now, ORCL’s stock is indeed trading at $198.76. Technical indicators are painting a bearish picture, as the price is currently below both its 50-day ($264.28) and 200-day ($235.10) moving averages. This suggests a lack of recent upward momentum.
However, here’s an interesting twist: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 19.1, which is firmly in “oversold” territory. This could hint at a potential rebound in the near future. On the other hand, the MACD indicator shows a bearish short-term trend, suggesting minor pullbacks might occur before any significant upward movement.
Looking back at the past year, ORCL’s stock has swung between $118.86 and $345.72. This wide range tells us that investor sentiment has been quite varied. The current price is sitting in the mid-range, which might imply that extreme swings are less probable unless a major catalyst emerges.
Analysts are forecasting pretty solid growth, with a 1-year target of $297.13 (+49.5%) and an average consensus target of $344.98 (+73.6%). What’s more, with 45.25% institutional ownership and very low short interest (just 1.22% of the float), major investors are betting on Oracle’s long-term success rather than its decline.
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Detailed Oracle Stock Forecast Table: Monthly Projections
This detailed monthly forecast table provides a model-based outlook for ORCL’s price evolution, spanning from November 2025 to November 2026. It includes projected price ranges (Minimum, Average, Maximum), the potential Return on Investment (ROI) based on the average projection against the current price, and a derived model signal for each period.
Over this forecast horizon, ORCL’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate roughly between $167.28 and $336.25. The projected price range remains relatively consistent, moving from an initial $198.76 – $198.76 to $246.51 – $329.55 by the end of the period, suggesting a stable level of forecast uncertainty.
| Month (Period) | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Potential ROI vs Current ($198.76) | Model Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11 | $198.76 | $198.76 | $198.76 | -0.0% | Hold/Neutral |
| 2025-12 | $196.13 | $211.51 | $230.52 | 6.4% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-01 | $185.12 | $200.89 | $212.94 | 1.1% | Hold/Neutral |
| 2026-02 | $185.97 | $200.18 | $213.34 | 0.7% | Hold/Neutral |
| 2026-03 | $175.80 | $195.41 | $211.24 | -1.7% | Hold/Neutral |
| 2026-04 | $169.10 | $186.65 | $203.98 | -6.1% | Consider Short |
| 2026-05 | $167.28 | $185.29 | $211.67 | -6.8% | Consider Short |
| 2026-06 | $177.98 | $209.47 | $242.57 | 5.4% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-07 | $212.65 | $245.65 | $276.13 | 23.6% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-08 | $237.25 | $264.14 | $290.01 | 32.9% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-09 | $242.24 | $276.25 | $311.38 | 39.0% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-10 | $258.21 | $297.13 | $336.25 | 49.5% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-11 | $246.51 | $293.35 | $329.55 | 47.6% | Consider Buy |
It’s important to remember that these model forecasts are estimates, and they inherently carry uncertainty. They rely on current data and specific assumptions, all of which can change. We can’t guarantee actual prices will match these projections.
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Company Profile: A Tech Giant’s Business Overview
Understanding the core business is always crucial for any investment analysis. Oracle Corporation operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software – Infrastructure industry. It’s a massive enterprise with a $566.62 billion market cap and a global workforce of 162,000 employees. You can learn more about them on their official website.
Oracle offers a vast array of products and services designed to meet the complex needs of enterprise information technology environments worldwide. Their Oracle Cloud software-as-a-service (SaaS) offerings are particularly noteworthy. These include a variety of cloud software applications like Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Enterprise Performance Management (EPM), Supply Chain and Manufacturing Management (SCM), Human Capital Management (HCM), and the NetSuite applications suite. They also provide Oracle Health applications, along with Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing.
Beyond SaaS, Oracle provides cloud-based industry solutions tailored for diverse sectors. They also offer traditional Oracle cloud license and on-premise license products, along with crucial Oracle license support services. A significant part of their business involves infrastructure technologies, such as the Oracle Database and MySQL Database, and Java, a widely used software development language. Middleware, including various development tools, also falls under this umbrella.
Their cloud and license business’ infrastructure technologies extend to cloud-based compute, storage, and networking capabilities, as well as the Oracle Autonomous Database. They are heavily invested in cutting-edge technologies like AI, Internet-of-Things (IoT), machine learning, digital assistants, and blockchain. Furthermore, Oracle develops and sells hardware products and related software, including Oracle Engineered Systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, industry-specific hardware, virtualization software, operating systems, and management software. They also provide comprehensive hardware support, consulting, and advanced customer services.
Oracle markets and sells its extensive portfolio of cloud, license, hardware, support, and services directly to businesses across various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions. They also leverage indirect channels to reach a broader market. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
ORCL Total Valuation: Market Cap, Enterprise Value, and Multiples
While Oracle Corporation is undeniably a key player in the Software – Infrastructure industry with its impressive $566.62 billion market cap, its enterprise value (EV) tells an even broader story. The EV stands significantly higher at $667.24 billion, with a notable $100.62 billion of that value being attributed to debt. This indicates that while investors are confident about Oracle’s future earnings, the substantial debt load is a factor to keep in mind.
The valuation ratios for ORCL offer an interesting perspective. Trading at 11.28x revenue and 27.22x EBITDA, Oracle commands a premium compared to many of its peers. This premium valuation reflects the company’s strong market position and valuable brand assets. However, it also suggests that the stock might have less room for error if performance falters.
The upcoming earnings report, scheduled for 2025-09-09, will be critical. It will show whether Oracle’s businesses can truly grow into this valuation. Additionally, the 2025-10-09 ex-dividend date reminds us that Oracle continues to reward shareholders even as it invests for growth. Essentially, when you invest in ORCL, you’re paying for quality, but quality often comes at a higher price.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $566.62 B |
| Enterprise Value | $667.24 B |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 11.28x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 27.22x |
| Next Earnings Date | 2025-09-09 |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2025-10-09 |
ORCL Share Statistics: Ownership & Short Interest Insights
Let’s delve into ORCL’s share statistics to understand who owns the company and what bearish bets are being placed. Approximately 33.3% of Oracle’s shares are closely held by insiders or strategic investors, with the remaining 2 billion shares available for public trading. Since the float is quite high, investors can typically trade this stock without causing significant price volatility. However, it’s always worth remembering that the company could issue more shares, which might dilute the value of existing stock.
Executives and major shareholders hold a substantial stake, owning 40.91% of the company. This significant ownership helps align their interests directly with those of regular shareholders. Institutional ownership is also quite healthy, coming in at 45.25%. This level of backing from large institutions often provides a degree of stability and confidence in the stock.
Now, let’s look at short interest. Currently, about 21 million shares are shorted, representing just 1.22% of the float. This relatively low level suggests that bears aren’t expressing significant concern about Oracle’s future. It’s always wise to monitor changes in short interest, as a sharp increase could signal growing doubt among investors. Conversely, very low short interest during positive news can sometimes prevent a dramatic ‘short squeeze’.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 3 B |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 3 B |
| Shares Float | 2 B |
| Insider Ownership | 40.91% |
| Institutional Ownership | 45.25% |
| Shares Short | 21 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 1.00x |
| Short % of Float | 1.22% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | 19 M |
| Short Date | 2025-10-31 |
Oracle’s Valuation Metrics: P/E, Price/Sales, and Enterprise Value Ratios
Oracle’s valuation metrics offer a crucial lens through which to view its market positioning. The company’s Trailing P/E ratio stands at 46.12x, while its Forward P/E is 27.76x. This premium valuation suggests that the market has high expectations for Oracle’s future earnings growth, and it’s something investors should consider carefully.
Beyond earnings, Oracle’s Price/Sales ratio of 9.60x and Price/Book ratio of 23.38x also indicate that the company trades at elevated multiples. These figures provide insight into how the market values Oracle’s revenue and assets, signaling a strong market position that demands attention.
From an enterprise value perspective, the EV/Revenue ratio of 11.28x suggests a reasonable valuation when considering its revenue. However, the EV/EBITDA multiple of 27.22x could imply a potentially stretched valuation. Collectively, these metrics paint a comprehensive picture of Oracle’s current standing in the market.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 46.12x |
| Forward P/E | 27.76x |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | $9.60 |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | $23.38 |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 11.28x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 27.22x |
ORCL Financial Health: A Look at Liquidity, Debt, and Returns
When we examine Oracle’s financial data, it’s clear that the company presents a mix of strengths and weaknesses. The Return on Equity (ROE) of 69.24% and Return on Assets (ROA) of 7.15% are quite impressive. These figures reflect a highly efficient use of capital, which is a common characteristic among fast-growing firms.
However, the 4.53x Debt/Equity ratio, coupled with $111.62 billion in total debt against $11.00 billion in cash, reveals that Oracle has taken on a very high level of debt to fuel its operations and growth. Despite this, the company’s ability to generate $21.53 billion in operating cash flow (TTM) is a significant strength, proving that its core business can consistently produce cash.
On the liquidity front, the Current Ratio of 0.62x and Quick Ratio of 0.50x suggest potential short-term liquidity challenges. This means that while cash flows appear to cover its debts for now, there isn’t much room for error. that if business results decline or if interest rates are high when the company needs to refinance its debt, Oracle could face increased financial stress.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Return on Equity (ROE TTM) | 69.24% |
| Return on Assets (ROA TTM) | 7.15% |
| Debt/Equity (MRQ) | 4.53x |
| Total Cash (MRQ) | $11.00 B |
| Total Debt (MRQ) | $111.62 B |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 0.62x |
| Quick Ratio (MRQ) | 0.50x |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | $21.53 B |
| Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) | -$2.83 B |
Financial Efficiency: How Oracle Manages Its Assets and Capital
Oracle’s financial efficiency metrics offer a glimpse into how effectively the company utilizes its resources to generate revenue and profits. Its Asset Turnover of 0.35x suggests that Oracle generates about $0.35 in revenue for every dollar of assets. This indicates lower efficiency in asset utilization compared to some peers, a potential area for improvement.
Meanwhile, the Receivables Turnover of 6.90x and 52.9 Days Sales Outstanding point to adequate efficiency in collecting payments from customers. This is a positive sign, showing that Oracle isn’t letting too much capital get tied up in unpaid invoices. However, the Working Capital Turnover of -7.32x, supported by a Current Ratio of 0.62x, indicates a concerning use of short-term assets to support sales and signals potential liquidity issues.
Despite some of these challenges, Oracle’s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) stands at a solid 11.01%. This figure demonstrates how effectively the company generates returns from the capital it has invested, highlighting its strong capital efficiency. Overall, Oracle might need to focus on improving its asset utilization to further boost profitability. Investors should compare these figures with industry peers to fully assess Oracle’s competitive standing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset Turnover (TTM) | 0.35x |
| Receivables Turnover (TTM) | 6.90x |
| Working Capital Turnover (TTM) | -7.32x |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 0.62x |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 52.9 |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC TTM) | 11.01% |
Oracle’s Profitability and Growth: Margins, Revenue, and Earnings
A deep dive into Oracle’s margin performance reveals that the company generally has solid control over its costs and pricing strategies. The gross margin of 69.66% is quite robust, indicating strong control over production costs. Furthermore, the 31.38% operating margin shows that Oracle is generating healthy profits from its core operations.
An impressive 41.45% EBITDA margin highlights Oracle’s capability to generate strong cash flow from its operations before accounting for financing and tax strategies. All things considered, Oracle manages to retain around $21.080 in net profit for every dollar of revenue over the last twelve months. While the business is experiencing aggressive revenue growth at 12.20% year-over-year, investors should monitor if this pace can be sustained without eroding those healthy profit margins.
With $24.46 billion in EBITDA and $41.11 billion in gross profit, Oracle demonstrates substantial raw earning power. The $12.44 billion in net income further reveals how effectively it converts that power into bottom-line results. It appears the company is striking a balance between pursuing growth and maintaining profitability.
Despite the healthy gross margins, there’s a noticeable gap between the company’s gross and net margins (69.66% vs. 21.08%). This is likely attributable to high operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes, which are key areas for investors to monitor closely. Moving forward, maintaining steady or improving margins will be critical. Oracle needs to defend its pricing power and control operating costs, especially if revenue growth begins to moderate.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Profit Margin (TTM) | 21.08% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 31.38% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 69.66% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 41.45% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $59.02 B |
| Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY) | 12.20% |
| Gross Profit (TTM) | $41.11 B |
| EBITDA (TTM) | $24.46 B |
| Net Income (TTM) | $12.44 B |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | -1.90% |
Dividends and Shareholder Returns: What ORCL Offers Investors
For income-focused investors, Oracle currently offers a $2.00 annual dividend per share. At the current stock price, this translates to a dividend yield of 1.01%. This means that for every $100 invested, shareholders would receive $2.00 in annual dividends. It’s worth noting that this yield is below its 5-year average of 1.32%, which could suggest that the stock price has appreciated faster than dividend growth, or that dividend increases haven’t kept pace with historical trends.
Here are some key observations from Oracle’s dividend profile:
- The payout ratio of 41.67% is quite healthy. This indicates that Oracle uses only about 42% of its earnings to fund its dividends, leaving ample room for potential future increases or reinvestment back into the business for growth.
- The very low trailing yield of 1.00% implies a recent dividend initiation or a special, non-recurring payout. It’s always a good idea to check for consistency in dividend history.
- To receive the next dividend, investors must own the stock before the upcoming ex-dividend date of 2025-10-09.
- The last stock split (2:1 in 2000) is quite old and likely doesn’t have much relevance to the current valuation or investment thesis.
Investor Takeaway:
- Income Investors: The dividend appears sustainable, but it’s wise to monitor earnings and cash flow to ensure the payout remains well-supported.
- Growth Investors: Oracle seems to strike a good balance between returning capital to shareholders and reinvesting for growth, which might appeal to those pursuing a ‘growth and income’ strategy.
- Watch For: Keep an eye out for announcements of dividend hikes, which could potentially bring the yield closer to its historical average, or significant stock price changes that would naturally alter the yield.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Rate | $2.00 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.01% |
| Payout Ratio | 41.67% |
| 5 Year Average Dividend Yield | 1.32% |
| Trailing Dividend Rate | $1.90 |
| Trailing Dividend Yield | 0.01% |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2025-10-09 |
| Last Split Date | 2000-10-13 |
| Last Split Factor | 2:1 |
ORCL Technical Analysis: Decoding Price Action and Momentum
At a current price of $198.76, Oracle’s stock is currently in a bearish trend, but it appears to be oversold. The stock has experienced considerable downward pressure, losing -18.47% in the last 15 days alone. It’s crucial to analyze the technical indicators to determine if this presents a buying opportunity or a warning of further declines.
Trend Strength – Still Bearish
ORCL is firmly in a bearish trend, trading below its key moving averages, which signals a need for caution.
What This Means for Traders?
The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $232.30 is now acting as overhead resistance. As long as the price remains below this level, the bearish trend is likely to continue. A rejection from this average could lead to a test of recent lows.
Momentum Check – Potential Bounce Ahead?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 19.1, indicating oversold conditions. This often hints at a potential bounce. At the same time, the MACD histogram is negative, suggesting that any upward momentum might be starting to fade.
Trading Strategy:
This oversold reading could signal a potential bounce. Aggressive traders might consider looking for a short-term buy signal. However, conservative traders should ideally wait for the RSI to cross back above 30 to confirm a true reversal.
Bollinger Bands – Testing Key Levels
The price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, currently at $199.99. This signifies strong selling pressure and a potential breakdown. Investors should watch closely for signs of capitulation or a reversal.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $287.19 (Recent High) → A decisive breakout above this level could push ORCL significantly higher.
- Support: $232.30 (20-day SMA) → If this level breaks, expect a test of $199.99.
- Critical Support: A drop below $199.99 → Could trigger a deeper correction, potentially heading towards the 200-day SMA at $235.10.
Volume Trends – Checking for Conviction
Trading volume is currently near its recent average. This provides neutral confirmation of the current price action, neither strongly supporting a move up nor down with conviction.
Support & Resistance – The Trading Plan
Trading Plan:
- ✅ If ORCL manages to hold above $232.30 → The bullish trend could resume, with the next target being $287.19.
- ⚠️ If it breaks below $232.30 → Expect a dip towards $199.99.
- 🛑 A drop below $199.99 → This could trigger a deeper correction, potentially towards the 200-day SMA at $235.10.
Final Verdict – Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell ORCL?
- Short-Term Traders: The trend is showing signs of exhaustion. A neutral stance might be best until clearer signals emerge from the MACD or volume.
- Long-Term Investors: The long-term uptrend remains valid as long as the price holds above the 200-day SMA ($235.10). A pullback to the 50-day SMA ($264.28) area could present a safer buying opportunity.
- New Buyers: Avoid chasing the rally right now. It’s more prudent to wait for either a confirmed breakout above $287.19 with strong volume, or a pullback to the $232.30 area, which would offer a better risk/reward entry point.
Bottom Line: The technicals suggest that the rally might be running out of steam in the short term. While the long-term trend still appears bullish, a correction seems plausible before the next major move. Trade carefully and wait for confirmation at these key levels.
Historical Performance: Recent Trading Data for ORCL
In the recent trading period from November 07, 2025, to November 21, 2025, ORCL’s stock price experienced a total return of -16.93%. During this time, the price fluctuated between a high of $247.24 and a low of $193.55. The average daily trading volume during this period was approximately 26,253,280 shares. This recent downturn underscores the bearish pressure mentioned in our technical analysis.
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | $207.08 | $208.31 | $193.55 | $198.76 | 44,759,400 |
| 2025-11-20 | $231.16 | $234.00 | $210.30 | $210.69 | 27,459,600 |
| 2025-11-19 | $219.06 | $228.15 | $217.31 | $225.53 | 21,679,500 |
| 2025-11-18 | $216.21 | $223.70 | $214.50 | $220.49 | 21,098,300 |
| 2025-11-17 | $218.21 | $222.80 | $215.56 | $219.86 | 16,143,800 |
| 2025-11-16 | $210.83 | $227.05 | $210.77 | $222.85 | 36,053,800 |
| 2025-11-15 | $210.83 | $227.05 | $210.77 | $222.85 | 36,053,800 |
| 2025-11-14 | $210.83 | $227.05 | $210.77 | $222.85 | 36,053,800 |
| 2025-11-13 | $224.99 | $225.16 | $215.22 | $217.57 | 30,009,000 |
| 2025-11-12 | $236.74 | $236.81 | $226.17 | $226.99 | 24,195,000 |
| 2025-11-11 | $236.23 | $237.45 | $228.89 | $236.15 | 20,686,600 |
| 2025-11-10 | $245.95 | $247.24 | $237.07 | $240.83 | 16,698,700 |
| 2025-11-09 | $239.00 | $240.40 | $232.35 | $239.26 | 20,969,300 |
| 2025-11-08 | $239.00 | $240.40 | $232.35 | $239.26 | 20,969,300 |
| 2025-11-07 | $239.00 | $240.40 | $232.35 | $239.26 | 20,969,300 |
ORCL Stock Price Statistics: Volatility, Beta, and Moving Averages
When we zoom out to look at Oracle’s price action over the past year, we see a significant range. The stock has hit a high of $345.72 and a low of $118.86. This wide gap tells us that ORCL has experienced substantial fluctuations, likely driven by shifts in market sentiment or company-specific news.
Currently, the 50-day moving average sits at $272.85, while the 200-day moving average is at $210.58. This configuration, where the shorter-term average is above the longer-term one, is often referred to as a ‘golden cross’. Historically, this setup is viewed as a bullish signal, indicating positive long-term momentum.
Oracle’s stock carries a beta of 1.64x, which means it tends to be more volatile than the broader market – about 64% more volatile, to be precise. Combined with a moderate 30-day annualized volatility of 39.2%, it’s clear that ORCL experiences frequent price swings. For investors, this implies the potential for higher gains, but also a higher level of downside risk. These indicators are particularly important when deciding on position sizing or entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that aims to balance stability with growth exposure.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week High | $345.72 |
| 52 Week Low | $118.86 |
| 50 Day MA | $272.85 |
| 200 Day MA | $210.58 |
| Beta | 1.64x |
| Volatility (30d Ann.) | 39.2% |
Quarterly Earnings Performance: Oracle’s Recent Financial Results
Let’s review Oracle’s recent quarterly performance to understand its operational trajectory. In the latest reported quarter (2025-Q3), the company posted revenues of $14.93 billion and a net income of $2.93 billion.
Comparing this to previous periods, Oracle saw a quarter-over-quarter revenue change of -6.1%. However, on a year-over-year basis, revenue growth stands at a more positive +12.2%, indicating overall expansion despite recent sequential dips.
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS | Gross Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q3 | $14.93 B | $2.93 B | 1.01x | 67.3% |
| 2025-Q2 | $15.90 B | $3.43 B | 70.2% | |
| 2025-Q1 | $14.13 B | $2.94 B | 1.02x | 70.3% |
| 2024-Q4 | $14.06 B | $3.15 B | 1.10x | 70.9% |
Growth Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| QoQ Revenue Growth | -6.1% |
| QoQ Net Income Growth | -14.6% |
| YoY Revenue Growth | +12.2% |
Upcoming Earnings
| Event | Date/Time |
|---|---|
| Next Report | September 10, 2025 |
| Earnings Call | September 10, 2025 at 02:30 AM ET |
Short Selling Information: Bearish Bets on ORCL
Currently, there’s 21 million shares worth of short interest in Oracle (ORCL). The short ratio, or “days to cover,” stands at 1.0x. This means that, at the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take approximately one day for all short positions to be covered. This low level suggests that short sellers don’t currently exert significant control over the stock’s price, and the risk of a prolonged ‘short squeeze’ is relatively minimal.
With just 1.22% of the public float sold short, a very small percentage of available shares are being bet against. This indicates a general lack of strong bearish sentiment among investors. While this level has recently increased from 19 million shares in the prior month, suggesting a slight shift in bearish sentiment, the overall amount remains low. Because the number of investors shorting the stock is generally low, the market tends to feel more confident, and the risks of sharp price swings from sudden short-covering activities are reduced.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Short | 21 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 1.00x |
| Short % of Float | 1.22% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | 19 M |
| Short Date | 2025-10-31 |
ORCL Risk Analysis: Assessing Investment Risks and Returns
Understanding the risk profile of any investment is paramount. Oracle’s risk profile reveals a moderate level of volatility, with an annualized volatility of 27.1%. This indicates that while the stock can see price movements, they are generally within a moderate range.
The Sharpe ratio of 0.53x suggests mixed risk-adjusted returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is generally preferred, indicating better returns for the amount of risk taken. The maximum drawdown of -40.36% is a significant figure, highlighting that the stock has experienced substantial downside risk during adverse market conditions. This is a critical point for investors to consider regarding their potential capital at risk.
Furthermore, the Value at Risk (VaR) at a 5% confidence level shows a potential loss of -2.14% in the worst 5% of scenarios. This metric helps quantify the potential loss over a specific timeframe under normal market conditions. The Sortino ratio of 0.75x, which specifically focuses on downside risk, provides additional insight into its risk-adjusted performance. Investors should carefully consider these risk metrics in conjunction with their own risk tolerance and investment objectives.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Volatility (Annualized) | 27.1% |
| Value at Risk (5%) | -2.14% |
| Value at Risk (1%) | -4.84% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.53x |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.75x |
| Maximum Drawdown | -40.36% |
| Skewness | 3.18x |
| Kurtosis | 71.28x |
Sentiment Analysis for Oracle (ORCL): News, Analysts, and Options Market
Current market sentiment for Oracle (ORCL) reveals a cautiously positive outlook, reflected in a composite sentiment score of 0.22x with a confidence level of 38.0%. This positive sentiment isn’t derived from a single source; rather, it’s a blend of insights from news coverage, analyst recommendations, and activity in the options market.
Breaking down these sentiment components offers a more nuanced view: news analysis shows a Neutral sentiment (-0.03x), suggesting balanced or non-committal reporting. However, analyst consensus leans Positive (0.40x), indicating a generally optimistic view from Wall Street professionals. Conversely, options market sentiment reflects a Negative bias (-0.11x), which could point to hedging or bearish bets among options traders. This overall weak sentiment signal should be considered alongside our fundamental and technical analyses for a truly comprehensive investment perspective.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Sentiment Score | 0.22x |
| Sentiment Classification | Positive |
| Sentiment Confidence | 38.0% |
| News Sentiment | Neutral (-0.03x) |
| Analyst Sentiment | Positive (0.40x) |
| Options Sentiment | Negative (-0.11x) |
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.55x |
ORCL Peer Comparison: How Oracle Stacks Up Against Competitors
To truly understand Oracle’s position, it’s helpful to compare it against key competitors in the Software – Infrastructure space. Here’s a look at how ORCL measures up against industry giants like Microsoft (MSFT), ServiceNow (NOW), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW).
Oracle’s $566.62 billion market cap places it firmly in the middle tier, significantly trailing Microsoft’s colossal $3.51 trillion but comfortably ahead of ServiceNow ($169.32 billion) and Palo Alto Networks ($127.48 billion). In terms of valuation, ORCL’s P/E ratio of 46.12x represents a moderate premium, but it’s important to note that peers like NOW (P/E 98.00x) and PANW (P/E 116.50x) also trade at even higher multiples, reflecting the market’s high growth expectations in this sector.
When it comes to revenue growth, Oracle’s 12.20% expansion is respectable. However, it’s outpaced by MSFT (18.40%) and NOW (21.80%), which demonstrate even stronger momentum. Where Oracle truly shines is in its profitability, boasting a robust 21.08% net margin, which is quite strong when compared to MSFT (35.71%) and NOW (13.66%).
Oracle’s Return on Equity (ROE) is exceptional at 69.24%, indicating highly efficient use of shareholder equity, and it significantly outperforms its peers in this metric. However, its high debt-to-equity ratio of 453x suggests significant financial leverage, especially when compared to NOW (21.25x) and PANW (4.95x), which maintain much lower debt levels. Finally, ORCL provides a 1.01% dividend yield, offering some income to shareholders, although MSFT’s yield (77.00%) appears unusually high, which might warrant further investigation to ensure it’s not a special payout or data anomaly.
| Metric | ORCL | MSFT | NOW | PANW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $566.62B | $3.51T | $169.32B | $127.48B |
| P/E Ratio | 46.12 | 33.56 | 98.00 | 116.50 |
| Revenue Growth | 12.20% | 18.40% | 21.80% | 15.70% |
| Net Margin | 21.08% | 35.71% | 13.66% | 11.69% |
| EPS | 4.31 | 14.07 | 8.30 | 1.57 |
| ROE | 69.24% | 32.24% | 16.81% | 15.32% |
| Debt-to-Equity | 453 | 33.15 | 21.25 | 4.95 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.01% | 77.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 52-Week Range | 117.98 – 345.12 | 342.95 – 553.50 | 678.66 – 1198.09 | 144.15 – 223.61 |
Insider Transactions (Last 3 Months) for ORCL
Looking at insider transaction data for Oracle over the last three months, we see a mixed pattern, with 25 buys and 42 sells out of a total of 67 transactions. This suggests a somewhat balanced insider sentiment, although 20 of these transactions had estimated pricing. When we focus specifically on discretionary open-market activity, there were 13 market sales compared to 0 market purchases. This indicates that insiders are actively reducing their positions in the open market.
Additionally, 28 option exercises occurred. These can signal either confidence in future price appreciation (as insiders exercise options to buy shares) or simply routine portfolio management. Transaction prices show consistency, with sales averaging $295.36 and purchases averaging $280.07, indicating that insiders are transacting around current market levels. However, recent market transactions lean towards selling, with insiders continuing to reduce their exposure in the near term. The scale of discretionary market selling activity should give investors pause; when insiders, who often have the best visibility into company operations, are reducing their exposure, it warrants careful evaluation of the near-term risk/reward dynamics.
| Insider Name | Type | Shares Changed | Price | Shares After | Transaction Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BERG JEFFREY | SELL (Sale) [S] | -4,226 | $284.31 | 151,999 | 2025-10-28 | 2025-10-30 |
| BERG JEFFREY | SELL (Sale) [S] | -22,724 | $283.63 | 156,225 | 2025-10-28 | 2025-10-30 |
| BERG JEFFREY | SELL (Sale) [S] | -13,373 | $282.56 | 178,949 | 2025-10-28 | 2025-10-30 |
| BERG JEFFREY | SELL (Sale) [S] | -9,042 | $281.58 | 192,322 | 2025-10-28 | 2025-10-30 |
| Levey Stuart | BUY (Award) [A] | +143 | $280.07 | 159,157 | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-27 |
| Smith Maria | SELL (Sale) [S] | -5,000 | $280.62 | 47,083 | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-23 |
| Smith Maria | SELL (Sale) [S] | -5,000 | $280.00 | 52,083 | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-23 |
| Magouyrk Clayton M. | SELL (Sale) [S] | -40,000 | $276.64 | 154,030 | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-23 |
| Levey Stuart | SELL (Sale) [S] | -19,758 | $300.00 | 18,429 | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-14 |
| SELIGMAN NAOMI O | SELL (Sale) [S] | -2,222 | $288.91 | 29,225 | 2025-09-26 | 2025-09-30 |
| Sicilia Michael D. | SELL (Sale) [S] | -33,845 | $321.16 | 132,656 | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-23 |
| Sicilia Michael D. | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -35,495 | $308.66 | 166,501 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-23 |
| Smith Maria | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -2,869 | $308.66 | 57,083 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-23 |
| Magouyrk Clayton M. | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -34,665 | $308.66 | 194,030 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-23 |
| HENLEY JEFFREY | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -14,464 | $308.66 | 1,001,839 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-23 |
| Sicilia Michael D. | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -35,801 | ~$308.13 | 107,406 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Sicilia Michael D. | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -17,310 | $296.62 | 128,585 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Sicilia Michael D. | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +35,801 | ~$308.13 | 145,895 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Smith Maria | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -11,934 | ~$308.13 | 35,802 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Smith Maria | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -6,218 | $296.62 | 54,446 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Smith Maria | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +11,934 | ~$308.13 | 60,664 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Magouyrk Clayton M. | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -41,768 | ~$308.13 | 125,307 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Magouyrk Clayton M. | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -16,436 | $296.62 | 140,602 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Magouyrk Clayton M. | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +41,768 | ~$308.13 | 157,038 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Levey Stuart | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -20,884 | ~$308.13 | 62,654 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Levey Stuart | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -10,244 | $296.62 | 38,187 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Levey Stuart | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +20,884 | ~$308.13 | 48,431 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| HENLEY JEFFREY | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -13,425 | ~$308.13 | 40,278 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| HENLEY JEFFREY | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -5,891 | $296.62 | 983,268 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| HENLEY JEFFREY | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +13,425 | ~$308.13 | 989,159 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-23 |
| Sicilia Michael D. | SELL (Sale) [S] | -16,323 | $313.60 | 110,094 | 2025-09-16 | 2025-09-17 |
| Smith Maria | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -13,169 | ~$301.62 | 26,337 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| Smith Maria | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -6,862 | $292.18 | 48,730 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| Smith Maria | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +13,169 | ~$301.62 | 55,592 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| Sicilia Michael D. | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -52,673 | ~$301.62 | 105,347 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| Sicilia Michael D. | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -25,468 | $292.18 | 126,417 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| Sicilia Michael D. | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +52,673 | ~$301.62 | 151,885 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| Levey Stuart | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -26,337 | ~$301.62 | 52,674 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| Levey Stuart | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -12,405 | $292.18 | 27,547 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| Levey Stuart | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +26,337 | ~$301.62 | 39,952 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| HENLEY JEFFREY | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -19,753 | ~$301.62 | 39,505 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| HENLEY JEFFREY | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -8,629 | $292.18 | 975,734 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| HENLEY JEFFREY | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +19,753 | ~$301.62 | 984,363 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| Magouyrk Clayton M. | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -61,452 | ~$301.62 | 122,905 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-16 |
| Magouyrk Clayton M. | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -24,182 | $292.18 | 115,270 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-16 |
| Magouyrk Clayton M. | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +61,452 | ~$301.62 | 139,452 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-16 |
| Parrett William G | SELL (Sale) [S] | -11,500 | $306.00 | 17,764 | 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-16 |
| Magouyrk Clayton M. | SELL (Sale) [S] | -21,241 | $297.11 | 78,000 | 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-16 |
Key Risk Factors for Oracle (ORCL) Investors
Potential investors considering ORCL should be fully aware of several inherent risk factors. The following list highlights key considerations based on available data and current market dynamics. It’s important to remember that this list may not encompass every possible risk.
- ⚠️ Price below 50-Day SMA: At $198.76, the stock price is trading below its 50-Day Simple Moving Average of $264.28, which indicates potential short-term weakness.
- ⚠️ Price below 200-Day SMA: The current price of $198.76 is also below the 200-Day Simple Moving Average of $235.10, suggesting potential long-term weakness in the trend.
- ⚠️ Oversold RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 19.1, which is below 30. This indicates oversold conditions, which could precede either further downside or a potential rebound.
- ⚠️ High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: With a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 4.53x, Oracle carries significant financial leverage, posing a higher risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment.
- ⚠️ Liquidity Concerns: The Current Ratio of 0.62x is below 1.0, suggesting potential short-term liquidity challenges that could affect the company’s ability to meet immediate obligations.
- ⚠️ Negative Earnings Growth: A year-over-year earnings growth of -1.90% raises concerns about the company’s recent profitability trends and its ability to grow its bottom line.
- ⚠️ Market Fluctuations: General market fluctuations and broader economic conditions can significantly impact stocks within the Technology sector, adding another layer of risk beyond company-specific factors.
Analyst Insights and Consensus for ORCL Stock
Let’s turn our attention to what Wall Street analysts are saying about Oracle. The consensus recommendation for ORCL is a confident ‘Buy’. This view is compiled from the opinions of 37 analysts who cover the stock.
The average target price among these analysts is $344.98. This target falls within a range from a low of $175.14 to a high of $430.00. Based on this mean target of $344.98, it implies a potential upside of approximately +73.6% from the current price of $198.76. This robust target reflects the overall positive sentiment among analysts regarding Oracle’s future outlook.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | Buy |
| Mean Target Price | $344.98 |
| High Target Price | $430.00 |
| Low Target Price | $175.14 |
| Number of Analyst Opinions | 37 |
Recent News and Developments Affecting Oracle (ORCL)
Keeping up with recent headlines is vital for any investor. Here’s a snapshot of recent news related to Oracle (ORCL), offering insights into current events and market sentiment:
- SoftBank reports: Debt issuance, OpenAI data center investment
- Publisher: Yahoo Finance Video
- Published: 2025-11-21T17:15:32Z
- 3 analysts on why AI debt isn’t a bubble
- Publisher: Quartz
- Published: 2025-11-22T10:00:00Z
- Investing.com’s stocks of the week
- Publisher: Investing.com
- Published: 2025-11-22T09:17:16Z
- Investors Are Acting Like the “OpenAI Bubble” Is Popping As SoftBank and Oracle Stock Continue Slide
- Publisher: TheStreet
- Published: 2025-11-22T01:18:08Z
- Review & Preview: The Rally Returns
- Publisher: Barrons.com
- Published: 2025-11-22T00:25:00Z
Conclusion and Outlook for ORCL Stock
Synthesizing all the data, Oracle (ORCL) presents a nuanced picture for investors. Let’s break down the key takeaways.
Short-Term Technical Snapshot
- Overall Technical Sentiment: Neutral
- Price Trend vs MAs: Bearish (currently below SMA50/200)
- Momentum (RSI): Oversold (at 19.1, suggesting potential for a bounce)
- Support / Resistance (30d): Approximately $193.55 / $287.19
Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook
- 1-Year Average Forecast: Approximately +49.5% average change to around $297.13
- Fundamental Health: Assessment Incomplete (strong ROE at 69.24% but high Debt/Equity at 4.53x)
- Valuation Snapshot: Appears Moderate (Forward P/E: 27.76x)
- Recent Growth (YoY): Mixed (Revenue growth 12.20%, but Earnings growth -1.90%)
- Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy (Target: $344.98)
Overall Assessment & Outlook
When we bring everything together, ORCL currently shows a neutral technical outlook coupled with moderate fundamentals. From a valuation perspective, it appears moderately priced with a Forward P/E of 27.76x. Looking out over the next year, the forecast implies a substantial potential upside of +49.5%, with an average target price near $297.13.
However, investors must carefully consider these points in relation to the identified risks, particularly the high debt load and potential short-term liquidity challenges. Your investment decision should align with your individual investment horizon and risk tolerance. Always conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions about ORCL Stock
Here are some common questions investors have about Oracle (ORCL) stock, based on our comprehensive analysis.
What is the ORCL stock price prediction for the next year (2025-2026)?
Based on current models, the average 1-year price forecast for ORCL is approximately $297.13. This represents a potential +49.5% change from the recent price of $198.76. Remember, this is a model-driven estimate, not a guarantee, and actual prices will fluctuate based on numerous market factors.
Will ORCL stock go up or down?
The 1-year forecast model suggests the price might significantly increase on average (+49.5% potential). However, the short-term direction is highly uncertain and heavily influenced by prevailing market sentiment (currently ‘Neutral’), breaking news, and overall economic conditions. Technical indicators, such as the oversold RSI, could provide clues for near-term direction.
Is ORCL stock a good investment right now?
Determining if ORCL is a ‘good buy’ requires evaluating multiple factors. Technical sentiment is ‘Neutral’, while the 1-year forecast suggests significant upside potential. Technically, the RSI indicates oversold conditions (RSI: 19.1), potentially signaling a rebound opportunity. You should consider the valuation, financial health, and growth prospects.
However, note that 7 potentially significant risk factors specific to ORCL were identified, including high debt and liquidity concerns. Align these factors with your personal investment strategy and risk tolerance.
How volatile is ORCL stock?
Based on recent 30-day price action, ORCL’s annualized volatility is approximately 39.2%. This level is considered moderate, indicating a noticeable degree of recent price fluctuation. This aligns with its Beta of 1.64x, suggesting it tends to move more sharply than the broader market. Higher volatility means larger potential price swings, both up and down.
What is ORCL’s P/E ratio and what does it mean?
ORCL’s Trailing P/E ratio (based on past earnings) is 46.12x, which is considered relatively high, implying the market expects strong future growth or a potential overvaluation. The Forward P/E (based on expected earnings) is 27.76x. A P/E ratio indicates how much investors are paying per dollar of earnings. It’s crucial to compare this to industry peers and historical levels. A high P/E isn’t necessarily bad if strong growth justifies it.
What are the key upcoming events for ORCL?
Key upcoming events for ORCL include the ex-dividend date on 2025-10-09 for income investors, and its next earnings report on September 10, 2025. Beyond these, investors should closely monitor macroeconomic shifts, competitive actions within the Software – Infrastructure industry, and major corporate announcements from Oracle.
What does ORCL’s liquidity position reveal about its financial health?
ORCL’s financial health includes a Current Ratio of 0.62x, which is below 1.0 and suggests potential short-term liquidity challenges. However, its robust operating cash flow of $21.53 billion and its levered free cash flow of -$2.83 billion are critical factors. While the negative levered free cash flow bears watching, the strong operating cash flow provides a significant buffer for funding operations and managing debt obligations.