Hey there, fellow investor! Looking into Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)? You’re in the right place. This isn’t just another dry stock report; we’re diving deep into AFRM, a significant player in the Software – Infrastructure space, to figure out if it’s currently a smart move for your portfolio.
We’ll explore its financial health, market position, and what the latest data tells us about its potential future. So, let’s cut through the noise and get to what truly matters for your investment decisions.
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Stock: Key Insights You Need to Know Today
As of late November 2025, Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is trading at $70.95. The stock is currently experiencing a short-term pullback, yet it remains within a broader uptrend, holding above its 200-day moving average despite dipping below its 50-day average. It’s a classic mixed signal that often keeps investors on their toes.
Wall Street analysts are quite optimistic about AFRM, projecting a 1-year price target of $92.83, which could mean a substantial +30.8% upside from today’s price. However, don’t forget the stock’s significant annualized volatility of 60.3%, suggesting that these potential gains come with the possibility of wide price swings. This isn’t a stock for the faint of heart!
Fundamentally, Affirm presents a nuanced picture. The company is certainly showing robust revenue growth, up 33.60% year-over-year. That’s a strong indicator of its expanding market presence. On the flip side, AFRM carries a notable debt load, with a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.41x. Managing this debt will be crucial, especially in the current interest rate environment.
What’s Inside This Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Stock Analysis?
We’re here to give you a comprehensive breakdown of AFRM, going beyond just the headlines. We want you to feel confident in your investment choices.
- Is now a good time to buy AFRM stock?Technically, the picture is “Neutral,” with the 14-day RSI sitting at 51.3. Fundamentally, we’re urging caution, primarily due to the company’s debt levels and the need for sustained growth metrics to justify its current valuation.
- Can Affirm’s core operations drive future growth?Future success will heavily depend on how well Affirm continues to perform in its core Software – Infrastructure operations. It also needs to skillfully navigate the intense competitive pressures in the fintech sector.
- What are the biggest risks for AFRM investors?The company holds approximately $7.96 billion in debt, which could become a significant headwind if interest rates continue to climb. Furthermore, competition from both established financial institutions and nimble new entrants remains a constant challenge.
Our goal is to provide you with clear, actionable insights, free from jargon, whether you’re building a long-term portfolio or looking for shorter-term trading opportunities. We’ll dig into the data together to help you decide if Affirm Holdings, Inc. is the right investment for your financial journey.
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Key Metrics & Forecast Summary
Let’s take a quick glance at the vital stats for Affirm Holdings (AFRM) as of today, November 28, 2025.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $70.95 | Live Market Price |
AFRM Price Targets & Forecasts
| Forecast Period | Price | Potential Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1-Month Forecast | $69.99 | -1.4% |
| 1-Year Forecast | $123.01 | +73.4% |
| Analyst Mean Target | $92.83 | +30.8% |
AFRM Trend & Momentum
| Indicator | Value/Status | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | Mixed Trend | ⚖️ |
| RSI (14-day) | 51.3 | Neutral |
| MACD | Bullish Short-Term Trend (0.49) | 📈 |
AFRM Key Technical Levels
| Level | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Above SMA 50 | $71.02 | ❌ |
| Above SMA 200 | $70.28 | ✅ |
| 52-Week Range | $30.90 – $100.00 | 📏 |
AFRM Volatility
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility (30d Ann.) | 60.3% | 🌪️ (High) |
| Beta (vs. Market) | 3.57x | 🎢 (High Sensitivity) |
| Green Days (30d) | 20/30 (67%) | 🟢 |
AFRM Ownership
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | 83.10% | 🏛️ |
| Short % of Float | 4.82% | 😐 (Moderate Bets) |
Right now, AFRM’s stock is trading at $70.95. The technical indicators are showing a somewhat mixed pattern; while the price is holding above its 200-day moving average ($70.28), it’s just below the 50-day average ($71.02). This suggests a recent build-up of momentum that’s currently facing a slight resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.3 is squarely in the neutral zone, indicating that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator points to a bullish short-term trend, which might imply minor pullbacks are possible before the next upward move takes hold. If you’re looking for more details on these indicators, a visit to Yahoo Finance for AFRM can provide real-time charts.
Over the past year, AFRM’s stock has seen a wide range, trading between $30.90 and $100.00. This tells us that investor sentiment has been quite varied, and the stock is currently sitting mid-range. This position suggests that extreme price swings might be less likely unless a major catalyst emerges.
Looking ahead, analysts expect notable growth, with a 1-year target of $123.01 (a potential +73.4% upside) and a consensus average target of $92.83 (a +30.8% gain). What’s more, with 83.10% institutional ownership and a relatively low short interest of 4.82%, it appears major investors are largely betting on Affirm’s long-term success rather than its decline.
Detailed AFRM Price Forecast Table: Monthly Projections
Here’s a detailed monthly forecast outlining the model’s expectations for AFRM’s price evolution, ranging from approximately $54.62 to $221.65. This table includes projected ranges (Min, Avg, Max), potential ROI based on the average projection versus the current price, and a derived model signal for each period.
Over the forecast horizon, from November 2025 to November 2026, AFRM’s price is projected to fluctuate significantly. The projected price range generally remains relatively consistent in terms of uncertainty, implying that while price targets may shift, the confidence interval for those forecasts is stable.
| Month (Period) | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Potential ROI vs Current ($70.95) | Model Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11 | $69.99 | $69.99 | $69.99 | -1.4% | Hold/Neutral |
| 2025-12 | $82.07 | $98.92 | $112.27 | 39.4% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-01 | $77.57 | $95.25 | $108.89 | 34.3% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-02 | $67.20 | $84.52 | $98.29 | 19.1% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-03 | $66.96 | $86.10 | $101.80 | 21.3% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-04 | $57.13 | $80.54 | $95.89 | 13.5% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-05 | $62.42 | $80.42 | $108.43 | 13.3% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-06 | $54.62 | $77.04 | $98.32 | 8.6% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-07 | $56.49 | $85.59 | $112.38 | 20.6% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-08 | $59.02 | $87.57 | $122.46 | 23.4% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-09 | $63.84 | $100.19 | $149.16 | 41.2% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-10 | $81.40 | $123.01 | $191.32 | 73.4% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-11 | $92.25 | $146.34 | $221.65 | 106.3% | Consider Buy |
Remember, these forecasts are model-based estimates. They are inherently uncertain and can change rapidly based on evolving market conditions and new data. They are not a guarantee of future prices, so always conduct your own research.
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Company Profile & Business Overview
To truly understand AFRM, we need to grasp what the company does at its core. Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a prominent payment network across the United States, Canada, and internationally. Its platform offers a suite of solutions including point-of-sale payment options for consumers, robust merchant commerce solutions, and a user-friendly consumer-focused app. For more official details, you can always check the latest SEC filings for AFRM.
Affirm’s innovative commerce platform works in conjunction with originating banks and capital markets partners. This structure allows consumers to pay for their purchases over time, providing flexibility that’s increasingly popular. The company boasts an impressive roster of active merchants, ranging from small businesses to large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies with a strong omni-channel presence.
Their merchant base spans a diverse array of industries, including sporting goods, home and lifestyle, travel, ticketing, electronics, fashion, beauty, equipment, auto, and general merchandise. Founded in 2012, Affirm Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in San Francisco, California, cementing its place in the heart of technological innovation.
AFRM Total Valuation: Market Cap, Enterprise Value & Key Ratios
While Affirm Holdings, Inc. is recognized as a significant player in the Software – Infrastructure industry with a market capitalization of $23.42 billion, its enterprise value (EV) paints a broader picture. The EV stands at a higher $29.90 billion, with $6.48 billion of that value attributed to debt. This difference highlights the company’s financial leverage, which investors should definitely keep in mind.
Examining the valuation ratios reveals an interesting story. AFRM trades at a premium compared to many of its peers, with an EV/Revenue (TTM) of 8.64x and an EV/EBITDA (TTM) of 75.89x. This premium suggests that the market has confidence in Affirm’s strong market position and brand strength. However, it also means the stock might have less room for error, implying you’re paying for quality that doesn’t come cheap.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $23.42 B |
| Enterprise Value | $29.90 B |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 8.64x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 75.89x |
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Share Statistics & Ownership Insights
Let’s look at who owns AFRM and how its shares are distributed. Out of the company’s 289 million shares outstanding, nearly all are publicly available as float, meaning a significant portion isn’t locked up. This high float generally allows investors to trade the stock without causing drastic price shifts. However, it’s also worth noting that the company could potentially issue more shares, which could dilute the value for existing shareholders.
Interestingly, executives and major shareholders hold a relatively small amount of the company, at 4.38%. While this helps align their interests with shareholders, it’s a modest stake. On the other hand, institutional ownership is quite significant, standing at an impressive 83.10%. This level of institutional backing often provides a degree of stability and confidence in the stock’s long-term prospects.
Now, let’s consider short interest. With approximately 14 million shares shorted, representing 4.82% of the float, there’s a notable level of bearish sentiment. It’s wise to keep an eye on changes in this figure; a sharp increase could signal growing doubt among investors. Conversely, if short interest remains low during positive news, it might reduce the chances of a sudden “short squeeze.” For real-time updates on short interest, you can often find data on platforms like MarketWatch for AFRM.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 289 M |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 330 M |
| Shares Float | 276 M |
| Insider Ownership | 4.38% |
| Institutional Ownership | 83.10% |
| Shares Short | 14 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 2.30x |
| Short % of Float | 4.82% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | 14 M |
| Short Date | 2025-11-14 |
AFRM Valuation Metrics: P/E, Price/Sales & EV Ratios Explained
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) exhibits a premium valuation that warrants careful consideration from investors. Its Trailing P/E ratio stands at 102.83x, and the Forward P/E is even higher at 150.96x. These elevated multiples suggest that the market is pricing in very strong future growth expectations, reflecting a stable earnings outlook for the company.
Beyond earnings-based metrics, AFRM’s Price/Sales ratio of 6.77x and Price/Book ratio of 7.10x also signal that the company trades at multiples that demand attention. These metrics provide additional insight into Affirm’s market positioning relative to its revenue and asset base.
From an enterprise value perspective, the EV/Revenue ratio of 8.64x indicates a reasonable revenue-based valuation. However, the EV/EBITDA multiple of 75.89x suggests a potentially stretched valuation when considering earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Together, these valuation metrics offer a comprehensive view of AFRM’s current standing in the market.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 102.83x |
| Forward P/E | 150.96x |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | $6.77 |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | $7.10 |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 8.64x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 75.89x |
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Financial Health & Liquidity Analysis
When we look at AFRM’s financial data, it’s clear that the company has both significant strengths and areas that require careful monitoring. Its Return on Equity (ROE) of 7.60% and Return on Assets (ROA) of 0.63% reflect an efficient use of capital, which is often a hallmark of fast-growing firms that reinvest heavily.
However, the 2.41x Debt/Equity ratio, coupled with $7.96 billion in total debt against $1.48 billion in cash, indicates that Affirm has taken on a substantial amount of debt to fuel its operations and expansion. Despite this leverage, the company’s ability to generate $971.61 million in operating cash flow (TTM) demonstrates that its core business can consistently produce cash, which is a significant underlying strength.
AFRM also boasts a robust liquidity position, as evidenced by its Current Ratio of 14.61x and Quick Ratio of 10.26x. These strong ratios suggest the company is well-equipped to cover its short-term liabilities. Furthermore, with $192.74 million in levered free cash flow, Affirm appears capable of generating significant cash for shareholders even after meeting its various financial obligations.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Return on Equity (ROE TTM) | 7.60% |
| Return on Assets (ROA TTM) | 0.63% |
| Debt/Equity (MRQ) | 2.41x |
| Total Cash (MRQ) | $1.48 B |
| Total Debt (MRQ) | $7.96 B |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 14.61x |
| Quick Ratio (MRQ) | 10.26x |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | $971.61 M |
| Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $192.74 M |
AFRM Financial Efficiency: Asset Turnover & Capital Returns
Looking at Affirm Holdings’ financial efficiency, we see a mixed bag. The Asset Turnover ratio of 0.31x indicates that the company generates approximately $0.31 in revenue for every dollar of assets. This suggests that there might be room for improvement in how efficiently Affirm utilizes its assets to drive sales.
On a more positive note, Affirm’s Receivables Turnover of 8.12x and 45.0 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) reflect adequate efficiency in collecting its outstanding customer payments. The Working Capital Turnover of 0.36x points to a moderate use of short-term assets to support sales, which is further bolstered by its excellent Current Ratio of 14.61x, signaling robust liquidity.
However, the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for Affirm Holdings stands at 2.14%. This figure suggests lower capital efficiency and indicates how effectively the company generates returns from the capital invested in its operations. Overall, while Affirm maintains strong liquidity, it may need to focus on improving asset utilization to boost its profitability further. Investors should compare these figures against industry peers to get a better sense of its competitive standing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset Turnover (TTM) | 0.31x |
| Receivables Turnover (TTM) | 8.12x |
| Working Capital Turnover (TTM) | 0.36x |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 14.61x |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 45.0 |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC TTM) | 2.14% |
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Profitability & Growth Prospects
An analysis of Affirm’s margin performance reveals that the company has a solid grip on its costs and pricing strategies. The gross margin of 47.76% clearly shows success in controlling production costs. Furthermore, the 6.82% operating margin indicates healthy profits from its core operations, before accounting for non-operating expenses.
The EBITDA margin of 11.39% suggests that AFRM is capable of generating strong cash flow from its operations, prior to factoring in financing and tax considerations. Overall, Affirm manages to retain approximately $6.74 in net profit for every $100 of revenue over the last twelve months. While the business is experiencing aggressive revenue growth at 33.60% year-over-year, investors should monitor whether this pace can be sustained without eroding those crucial profit margins.
AFRM’s $393.96 million in EBITDA and $1.65 billion in gross profit demonstrate its raw earning power. The $233.10 million in net income shows how effectively this power translates into bottom-line results. It appears the company is strategically balancing its pursuit of growth with the ongoing need to maintain profitability. There’s a noticeable gap between the gross margin (47.76%) and net margin (6.74%), which likely points to significant operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes – these are key areas for investors to keep a close watch on.
Going forward, sustaining or improving these margins will be critical. Affirm needs to continue defending its pricing power and controlling operating costs, especially if revenue growth eventually moderates.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Profit Margin (TTM) | 6.74% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 6.82% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 47.76% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 11.39% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.46 B |
| Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY) | 33.60% |
| Gross Profit (TTM) | $1.65 B |
| EBITDA (TTM) | $393.96 M |
| Net Income (TTM) | $233.10 M |
AFRM Dividends & Shareholder Returns: What Investors Should Know
Dividend Summary & Investor Implications
Based on the latest available information, Affirm (AFRM) does not currently pay a regular dividend. This suggests that the company is likely prioritizing reinvesting its earnings directly back into the business to fuel future growth and innovation. For growth-oriented companies like Affirm, this strategy is common, as they aim to expand their market share and develop new products rather than distribute profits to shareholders immediately.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Payout Ratio | 0.00% |
| Trailing Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Technical Analysis: Trends, Momentum & Levels
CURRENT PRICE: $70.95 | TREND: BULLISH
AFRM has experienced some downward pressure recently, losing -3.05% in the last 15 days. So, is this a dip to buy, or a sign of further declines to come? Let’s break down the technical indicators to get a clearer picture.
Trend Strength: Is AFRM Still Bullish?
The good news is that AFRM is currently trading above its key moving averages, which generally confirms that the overarching uptrend is still intact. Specifically, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $69.38 is acting as an immediate dynamic support level. As long as AFRM holds above this point, the bullish momentum could very well continue.
However, remember that a rapid ascent can sometimes push a stock too far from its averages, increasing the risk of a sharp pullback. It’s always a balance between strong upward movement and the potential for a healthy correction.
Momentum Check: Is AFRM’s Rally Fading?
When we look at momentum, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 51.3 sits comfortably in the neutral zone. This indicates that momentum is currently balanced, neither showing signs of being overbought nor oversold. At the same time, the MACD histogram remains positive, which provides further confirmation that upward momentum is still present, albeit perhaps with some consolidation.
This neutral RSI offers traders flexibility. Keep an eye out for a decisive MACD crossover or a clear break of a key support or resistance level for the next strong directional clue.
Bollinger Bands Analysis: AFRM Testing Key Levels
The stock is trading comfortably in the upper half of its Bollinger Bands, specifically between the 20-day SMA and the upper band. This positioning is often interpreted as a sign of underlying strength and continued buying interest.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: The recent high of $79.38 is a critical resistance point. A decisive breakout above this level, especially on strong volume, could propel AFRM higher.
- Support: The 20-day SMA at $69.38 acts as immediate support. If this level breaks, we could see a test of the next significant support around $60.57.
Volume Trends: Is There Conviction in AFRM’s Price Action?
Current trading volume is hovering near its recent average, which provides neutral confirmation of the stock’s recent price action. This level of volume isn’t signaling overwhelming conviction in either direction.
What’s the concern here? Rallies that occur on low or average volume can be prone to sharp reversals. If we don’t see a significant surge in buying interest to confirm any upward moves, the likelihood of a pullback increases. Strong, sustained volume often indicates institutional conviction behind a move.
AFRM Support & Resistance: Your Trading Plan
Here’s a straightforward trading plan based on the key technical levels:
- ✅ If AFRM holds above $69.38: The bullish trend is likely to continue, with the next target being the recent high of $79.38.
- ⚠️ If it breaks below $69.38: Expect a potential dip toward $60.57. This would indicate a short-term weakening of the trend.
- 🛑 A drop below $60.57: This could trigger a deeper correction, potentially bringing the stock down to test its 200-day SMA, which is currently at $70.28.
AFRM Technical Verdict: Buy, Hold, or Sell?
- Short-Term Traders: The trend is positive, but signs of short-term exhaustion are appearing. A neutral stance might be best until a clearer signal emerges from the MACD or volume.
- Long-Term Investors: The long-term uptrend for AFRM remains valid as long as the price stays above the 200-day SMA ($70.28). A pullback into the 50-day SMA ($71.02) area could present a more attractive and safer buying opportunity for those with a longer time horizon.
- New Buyers: It might be wise to avoid chasing the rally at this exact moment. Instead, wait for either a confirmed breakout above $79.38 accompanied by strong volume, or a more favorable pullback to the $69.38 area, which would offer a better risk-reward entry point.
Bottom Line: The technical indicators suggest that the recent rally for AFRM might be losing some steam in the short term. While the long-term trend appears bullish, a correction seems plausible before the next significant move. Trade carefully and wait for clear confirmation at these key levels.
(Note: Charts for Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and Historical Price & Volume would typically be displayed here to visually represent these analyses. , render images, but the analysis is derived from these visual indicators.)
AFRM Historical Performance: Recent Price Action & Volume
Let’s recap AFRM’s recent trading activity. Over the last 15 trading days, from November 14, 2025, to November 28, 2025, AFRM’s stock posted a modest return of +0.62%. During this period, the stock traded within a range of $60.29 to $73.95, with an average daily trading volume of 5,126,893 shares.
AFRM Recent Trading Data: Daily Price & Volume
Here’s a detailed look at AFRM’s daily trading activity over the past few weeks, showing how the stock opened, reached its highs and lows, closed, and the volume of shares traded each day.
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | $69.35 | $71.24 | $69.00 | $70.95 | 2,148,700 |
| 2025-11-27 | $69.42 | $70.12 | $68.79 | $68.80 | 3,232,600 |
| 2025-11-26 | $69.42 | $70.12 | $68.79 | $68.80 | 3,232,600 |
| 2025-11-25 | $66.50 | $69.13 | $66.07 | $68.83 | 6,118,700 |
| 2025-11-24 | $65.00 | $67.29 | $64.28 | $66.89 | 5,744,600 |
| 2025-11-23 | $63.00 | $65.12 | $60.29 | $64.38 | 5,428,700 |
| 2025-11-22 | $63.00 | $65.12 | $60.29 | $64.38 | 5,428,700 |
| 2025-11-21 | $63.00 | $65.12 | $60.29 | $64.38 | 5,428,700 |
| 2025-11-20 | $67.65 | $68.65 | $62.45 | $62.54 | 6,111,500 |
| 2025-11-19 | $65.81 | $66.60 | $63.06 | $65.35 | 4,762,900 |
| 2025-11-18 | $66.63 | $67.46 | $65.23 | $65.69 | 5,000,800 |
| 2025-11-17 | $69.60 | $70.39 | $66.21 | $68.17 | 5,807,100 |
| 2025-11-16 | $70.04 | $73.95 | $69.56 | $70.51 | 6,152,600 |
| 2025-11-15 | $70.04 | $73.95 | $69.56 | $70.51 | 6,152,600 |
| 2025-11-14 | $70.04 | $73.95 | $69.56 | $70.51 | 6,152,600 |
AFRM Stock Price Statistics: Volatility & Moving Averages
When we examine AFRM’s price performance over the past year, we see a wide range, with a 52-week high of $100.00 and a low of $30.90. This significant fluctuation indicates that the stock has been quite volatile, likely influenced by broader market sentiment or specific company news. Currently, the 50-day moving average is at $73.49, while the 200-day moving average is at $64.70.
The fact that the 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA forms what’s known as a ‘golden cross.’ This setup is often considered a bullish signal, suggesting positive long-term momentum is building. However, it’s essential to remember that moving averages are lagging indicators and should be used in conjunction with other metrics.
AFRM carries a beta of 3.57x, which implies that the stock tends to move significantly more sharply than the broader market—roughly 257% more volatile, to be precise. Coupled with a high 30-day annualized volatility of 60.3%, it’s clear that this stock experiences frequent and substantial price swings. For investors, this volatility presents both the potential for higher gains and, importantly, higher downside risk. These indicators are crucial when you’re deciding on position sizing or entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that aims to balance stability with growth exposure.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week High | $100.00 |
| 52 Week Low | $30.90 |
| 50 Day MA | $73.49 |
| 200 Day MA | $64.70 |
| Beta | 3.57x |
| Volatility (30d Ann.) | 60.3% |
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Quarterly Earnings Performance
Let’s take a closer look at Affirm’s recent quarterly performance to understand its operational trajectory. In its latest reported quarter, AFRM achieved revenue of $933.34 million and a net income of $80.69 million. This performance shows continued growth in its top and bottom lines.
Breaking down the growth, the quarter-over-quarter revenue change was a solid +6.5%. Even more impressively, the year-over-year revenue growth stands at a robust +33.6%. These figures highlight Affirm’s ability to significantly expand its operations and revenue base compared to the previous year, demonstrating strong market adoption and execution.
AFRM Recent Quarterly Results: Revenue, Net Income & EPS
Here’s a snapshot of Affirm’s performance over the last four quarters, detailing key financial metrics.
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS | Gross Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q3 | $933.34 M | $80.69 M | 0.23x | 67.7% |
| 2025-Q2 | $876.42 M | $69.24 M | 0.20x | 67.7% |
| 2025-Q1 | $783.13 M | $2.80 M | 0.01x | 65.4% |
| 2024-Q4 | $866.38 M | $80.36 M | 0.23x | 69.5% |
AFRM Growth Metrics: Quarterly & Yearly Changes
These growth metrics provide a clear view of Affirm’s recent expansion rates.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| QoQ Revenue Growth | +6.5% |
| QoQ Net Income Growth | +16.5% |
| YoY Revenue Growth | +33.6% |
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Short Selling Information & Bearish Sentiment
Understanding short interest can offer valuable insights into market sentiment. Currently, there is 14 million worth of short interest in AFRM. The short ratio, or “days to cover,” stands at 2.3x. This means that, based on the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take approximately 2 days for all short positions to be covered. This relatively low level suggests that short sellers do not currently hold significant control over the stock’s price, and the risk of a prolonged “short squeeze” (where short sellers are forced to buy back shares, driving prices up) is considered low.
With 4.82% of the public float sold short, a moderate percentage of the stock is being shorted. This indicates some bearish sentiment, but it’s not at an extreme level that would typically raise major alarm bells. This level has remained relatively stable compared to the prior month’s value of 14 million shares short, suggesting that bearish sentiment hasn’t significantly intensified. Generally, when the amount of short interest is low, the market tends to feel more confident, and the risks of sharp price swings from sudden short-covering activities are reduced.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Short | 14 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 2.30x |
| Short % of Float | 4.82% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | 14 M |
| Short Date | 2025-11-14 |
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AFRM Risk Analysis: Volatility, Drawdown & Value at Risk
When considering an investment in AFRM, it’s crucial to understand its risk profile. The stock demonstrates high volatility, with an annualized volatility of 81.7%. This figure clearly indicates a high level of investment risk, meaning the stock’s price can fluctuate significantly in a short period.
The Sharpe ratio of 0.31x suggests mixed risk-adjusted returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is generally preferred, indicating better returns for the amount of risk taken. Furthermore, the maximum drawdown of -94.71% highlights that AFRM has experienced substantial downside risk during adverse market conditions in the past, emphasizing its potential for significant losses.
Looking at the Value at Risk (VaR), at a 5% confidence level, it shows a potential loss of -7.86% in the worst 5% of scenarios over a given period. This metric provides an estimate of how much an investment could lose with a certain probability. The Sortino ratio of 0.47x focuses specifically on downside risk, offering additional insight into performance relative to harmful volatility. Meanwhile, the Skewness of 1.20x and Kurtosis of 9.61x further characterize the distribution of returns, suggesting a higher probability of extreme positive (skewness) and extreme (kurtosis) outcomes.
Investors should carefully consider these comprehensive risk metrics alongside their personal risk tolerance and overarching investment objectives before making any decisions regarding Affirm Holdings.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Volatility (Annualized) | 81.7% |
| Value at Risk (5%) | -7.86% |
| Value at Risk (1%) | -13.66% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.31x |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.47x |
| Maximum Drawdown | -94.71% |
| Skewness | 1.20x |
| Kurtosis | 9.61x |
AFRM Sentiment Analysis: News, Analysts & Options Market
Current market sentiment surrounding Affirm (AFRM) reveals a cautiously positive outlook, reflected in a composite sentiment score of 0.44x with a confidence level of 39.1%. This generally positive sentiment is aggregated from various data sources, including recent news coverage, analyst recommendations, and activity in the options market.
Breaking down the individual components provides more detail: news analysis currently shows a Neutral sentiment (-0.04x), suggesting balanced or non-conclusive media coverage. However, analyst consensus indicates a Positive sentiment (0.40x), highlighting their optimism. The options market sentiment is also notably Positive (0.63x), often reflecting the expectations of sophisticated traders regarding future price movements, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.18x indicating more call options (bullish bets) than put options (bearish bets.
While this sentiment signal is positive, its confidence level of 39.1% suggests it’s not an overwhelmingly strong signal. Therefore, it’s crucial to consider this sentiment alongside a thorough fundamental and technical analysis for a truly comprehensive investment perspective on AFRM.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Sentiment Score | 0.44x |
| Sentiment Classification | Positive |
| Sentiment Confidence | 39.1% |
| News Sentiment | Neutral (-0.04x) |
| Analyst Sentiment | Positive (0.40x) |
| Options Sentiment | Positive (0.63x) |
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.18x |
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Peer Comparison: MA, PYPL & XYZ
To truly understand Affirm’s position, it’s helpful to compare it against its industry peers. AFRM, with its $23.42 billion market cap, stands as the smallest among its listed competitors, which include Mastercard (MA) at $497.69 billion, PayPal (PYPL) at $59.89 billion, and XYZ (fictitious for comparison) at $40.72 billion. This size difference is a key factor in assessing growth potential and market influence.
AFRM’s high P/E ratio of 102.83x suggests investors are pricing in extremely high future growth expectations. In stark contrast, PYPL (P/E 12.59x) and XYZ (P/E 13.44x) trade at much lower multiples, which typically reflects more mature or slower-growth businesses. When it comes to revenue growth, AFRM shines with a strong 33.60% expansion, while MA demonstrates even stronger momentum at 16.70%. Affirm’s net margin of 6.74% shows positive but modest profitability compared to MA (45.28%) and PYPL (14.96%).
Regarding return on equity, AFRM’s 7.60% indicates modest returns. The company’s high debt-to-equity ratio of 241 signals significant financial leverage, with MA also showing high leverage at 240. Dividend policies vary widely; while MA (55.00%) and PYPL (89.00%) reward shareholders with payouts, AFRM currently reinvests all its cash back into growth, which is typical for a rapidly expanding company.
| Metric | AFRM | MA | PYPL | XYZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $23.42B | $497.69B | $59.89B | $40.72B |
| P/E Ratio | 102.83 | 35.20 | 12.59 | 13.44 |
| Revenue Growth | 33.60% | 16.70% | 7.30% | 2.30% |
| Net Margin | 6.74% | 45.28% | 14.96% | 13.08% |
| EPS | 0.69 | 15.64 | 4.98 | 4.97 |
| ROE | 7.60% | 1.85% | 24.36% | 14.69% |
| Debt-to-Equity | 241 | 240 | 60.24 | 36.05 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% | 55.00% | 89.00% | 0.00% |
| 52-Week Range | 30.90 – 100.00 | 463.61 – 600.98 | 55.72 – 93.44 | 44.27 – 99.26 |
AFRM Insider Transactions: Buys, Sells & Ownership Changes
Analyzing insider transaction data for AFRM over the last three months reveals a mixed but generally cautious pattern. We’ve seen a total of 52 transactions, comprising 18 buys and 34 sells. This suggests a somewhat balanced insider sentiment, though with a leaning towards selling activity, especially when considering discretionary open-market moves.
Focusing on those discretionary open-market transactions, there were 10 market sales compared to 0 market purchases. This indicates that insiders are actively reducing their positions through direct market sales, which is often a signal for investors to pause and consider. Additionally, 31 option exercises occurred, which can signify either confidence in future price appreciation (as they exercise options to buy at a lower price) or a routine part of portfolio management and compensation.
Price analysis from the 16 transactions where pricing data was available shows that sales typically occurred at elevated levels, averaging $81.79. In contrast, purchases (from the 8 transactions with priced data) averaged $27.29, suggesting strategic profit-taking by insiders. It’s important to note that much of the recent insider activity appears to be compensation-related rather than purely discretionary market moves.
However, the scale of discretionary market selling should give investors pause. When individuals with the best internal visibility into company operations are reducing their exposure, it warrants careful evaluation of the near-term risk-reward dynamics for AFRM. You can typically find these filings on the SEC Edgar database.
| Insider Name | Type | Shares Changed | Price | Shares After | Transaction Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michalek Libor | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -1,186 | $71.88 | 198,533 | 2025-11-01 | 2025-11-04 |
| Adkins Katherine | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -772 | $71.88 | 124,419 | 2025-11-01 | 2025-11-04 |
| Linford Michael | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -983 | $71.88 | 49,935 | 2025-11-01 | 2025-11-04 |
| Michalek Libor | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -2,336 | ~$74.42 | 25,693 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-03 |
| Michalek Libor | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -1,187 | $74.42 | 197,384 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-03 |
| Michalek Libor | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +2,336 | ~$74.42 | 198,571 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-03 |
| Adkins Katherine | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -1,401 | ~$74.42 | 15,416 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-03 |
| Adkins Katherine | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -305 | ~$74.42 | 915 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-03 |
| Adkins Katherine | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -773 | $74.42 | 123,486 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-03 |
| Adkins Katherine | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +1,706 | ~$74.42 | 124,259 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-03 |
| Linford Michael | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -2,336 | ~$74.42 | 25,693 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-03 |
| Linford Michael | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -985 | $74.42 | 48,583 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-03 |
| Linford Michael | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +2,336 | ~$74.42 | 49,568 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-03 |
| Levchin Max R | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -651,713 | ~$90.12 | 11,166,668 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-24 |
| Levchin Max R | SELL (Sale) [S] | -202,582 | $90.02 | 3,594 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-24 |
| Levchin Max R | SELL (Sale) [S] | -259,705 | $89.23 | 206,176 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-24 |
| Levchin Max R | SELL (Sale) [S] | -185,832 | $88.46 | 465,881 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-24 |
| Levchin Max R | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +651,713 | $49.00 | 651,713 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-24 |
| Jiyane Siphelele | SELL (Sale) [S] | -12,500 | $85.42 | 213,967 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-15 |
| Jiyane Siphelele | SELL (Sale) [S] | -25,533 | $90.71 | 226,467 | 2025-09-04 | 2025-09-08 |
| Jiyane Siphelele | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +11,166 | $5.39 | 252,000 | 2025-09-04 | 2025-09-08 |
| Jiyane Siphelele | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +14,367 | $1.68 | 240,834 | 2025-09-04 | 2025-09-08 |
| O’Hare Robert | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -626 | ~$82.22 | 23,800 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -2,427 | ~$82.22 | 58,230 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -1,280 | ~$82.22 | 15,357 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -2,837 | ~$82.22 | 28,370 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -933 | ~$82.22 | 5,596 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -11,988 | ~$82.22 | 35,965 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | SELL (Sale) [S] | -6,700 | $84.09 | 3,951 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | SELL (Sale) [S] | -8,582 | $83.27 | 10,651 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | SELL (Sale) [S] | -12,190 | $82.24 | 19,233 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +626 | $57.59 | 31,423 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +2,427 | $23.35 | 30,797 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +1,280 | $22.30 | 28,370 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +2,837 | $17.19 | 27,090 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
| O’Hare Robert | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +933 | $41.80 | 24,253 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-03 |
Key Risk Factors for Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Investors
Prospective investors in Affirm Holdings (AFRM) should be acutely aware of several key risk factors that could impact their investment. While this list highlights critical considerations based on current data and market dynamics, it’s important to remember that it may not encompass every possible risk.
- ⚠️ Price below 50-Day SMA: The current price of $70.95 is slightly below the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $71.02. This technical indicator suggests potential short-term weakness, which could lead to further price declines in the near future.
- ⚠️ High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Affirm carries a significant financial leverage risk, highlighted by its high Debt-to-Equity ratio of 2.41x. A substantial debt load can make a company vulnerable to rising interest rates or economic downturns, potentially impacting its ability to fund operations or service its debt obligations.
- ⚠️ Sector Volatility: As a company in the Technology sector, particularly Software – Infrastructure, AFRM is susceptible to general market fluctuations and broader economic conditions. Technology stocks can be highly sensitive to changes in investor sentiment, economic growth forecasts, and regulatory shifts, leading to increased price volatility.
AFRM Analyst Insights & Consensus: Price Targets & Recommendations
Let’s check in with Wall Street. The consensus from analysts covering Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is a collective ‘Buy’ recommendation. This strong positive sentiment is derived from the opinions of 23 analysts who have contributed to this consensus view.
The average target price set by these analysts is $92.83, with individual targets ranging from a low of $53.00 to a high of $115.00. Based on this mean target of $92.83, there’s a potential upside of approximately +30.8% from the current price of $70.95. This figure broadly reflects the overall analyst sentiment regarding the stock’s future outlook and growth potential.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | Buy |
| Mean Target Price | $92.83 |
| High Target Price | $115.00 |
| Low Target Price | $53.00 |
| Number of Analyst Opinions | 23 |
Latest News & Developments for Affirm Holdings (AFRM)
Staying current with the latest news is always essential for understanding potential catalysts and market sentiment affecting AFRM. Here are some of the most recent headlines and developments:
- A Look at Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Valuation as European Expansion and AI Growth Drive Investor Interest
- Publisher: Simply Wall St.
- Published: 2025-11-30T02:09:44Z
- Retail Stocks Usually Rise the Week After Black Friday. This BNPL Play Stands Out.
- Publisher: Barrons.com
- Published: 2025-11-29T18:31:00Z
- Pre-Markets in Green to Close a Volatile November
- Publisher: Zacks
- Published: 2025-11-28T15:54:00Z
- Black Friday Shows Mixed Signals Ahead of Holiday Shopping
- Publisher: Zacks
- Published: 2025-11-28T15:22:00Z
- Do Unusual Options Bets on AFRM Reveal Shifting Views on Profitability and Growth Momentum?
- Publisher: Simply Wall St.
- Published: 2025-11-25T12:11:59Z
AFRM Stock: Conclusion & Investment Outlook
So, where does that leave us with Affirm Holdings (AFRM)? It’s a fascinating company with a compelling growth story, but like any investment, it comes with its own set of dynamics to navigate. Let’s wrap up with a quick snapshot of both the short-term technicals and the longer-term fundamental outlook.
Short-Term Technical Snapshot for AFRM
- ▲ Overall Technical Sentiment: Strong Bullish. Despite recent pullbacks, the underlying technical strength remains.
- ● Price Trend vs MAs: Mixed. The price is currently below its 50-day SMA but holding above the 200-day SMA, indicating a short-term dip within a longer uptrend.
- ● Momentum (RSI): Neutral (51.3). Momentum is balanced, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions currently.
- 📊 Support / Resistance (30d): Key levels to watch are approximately ~$60.29 for support and ~$79.38 for resistance.
Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook for AFRM
- ▲ 1-Year Avg. Forecast: The model projects a significant potential upside of approximately +73.4%, targeting around $123.01.
- ● Fundamental Health: The assessment is moderate. While Affirm shows solid ROE (7.60%), its high Debt/Equity ratio (2.41x) requires careful monitoring.
- ⚠️ Valuation Snapshot: The stock appears to be trading at an elevated valuation, particularly with a Forward P/E of 150.96x, suggesting high growth expectations are already baked into the price.
- ▲ Recent Growth (YoY): Affirm demonstrates strong revenue growth of 33.60% year-over-year.
- ▲ Analyst Consensus: Wall Street analysts maintain a ‘Buy’ rating, with a mean target price of $92.83.
AFRM Overall Assessment & Outlook
In summation, AFRM presents a technical picture that leans towards Strong Bullish, despite recent consolidation. This is paired with a fundamental health assessment that we consider moderate, given its impressive growth but also its notable debt load. The current valuation does appear elevated, signaling that investors are paying a premium for its growth prospects.
However, the 1-year forecast model suggests substantial potential upside, with an average change towards approximately $123.01. As always, investors should carefully weigh these diverse factors against their personal risk tolerance, investment timeline, and broader market conditions. Affirm is certainly a company to keep on your radar, but a measured approach is key.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About AFRM Stock
What is the AFRM stock price prediction for the next year (2025-2026)?
Based on our current models, the average 1-year price forecast for AFRM is approximately $123.01. This represents a potential +73.4% change from the recent price of $70.95. Please remember, this is a model-driven estimate and not a guarantee; actual prices will fluctuate based on numerous market factors.
Will AFRM stock go up or down in the short term?
While the 1-year forecast model suggests a significant potential increase, the short-term direction for AFRM is highly uncertain. It will be heavily influenced by prevailing market sentiment (currently ‘Strong Bullish’), breaking news, and overall economic conditions. Technical indicators like the RSI (currently 51.3, indicating neutral momentum) provide clues for near-term movements, but volatility is a key characteristic of this stock.
Is AFRM stock a good investment right now?
Determining if AFRM is a ‘good buy’ depends on your individual investment strategy and risk tolerance. Technical sentiment is ‘Strong Bullish,’ and the 1-year forecast suggests a substantial +73.4% potential upside. However, the stock’s valuation appears elevated, and there are 3 potentially significant risk factors identified (e.g., high debt, short-term technical weakness). It’s crucial to align these factors with your personal investment objectives and consult a financial advisor.
How volatile is AFRM stock?
AFRM stock is considered highly volatile. Based on recent 30-day price action, its annualized volatility is approximately 60.3%. This level aligns with its Beta of 3.57x, indicating that AFRM tends to experience larger price swings (both up and down) compared to the broader market.
What is AFRM’s P/E ratio and what does it mean?
AFRM’s Trailing P/E ratio (based on past earnings) is 102.83x, and its Forward P/E (based on expected earnings) is 150.96x. These are considered relatively high, implying that the market expects very strong future growth or that the stock might be overvalued. A P/E ratio indicates how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings. You should compare these figures to industry peers and historical levels to put them into context.
What does AFRM’s liquidity position reveal about its financial health?
AFRM’s financial health shows a strong liquidity position, with a Current Ratio of 14.61x. This suggests the company can comfortably cover its short-term liabilities. Furthermore, its robust operating cash flow of $971.61 million and levered free cash flow of $192.74 million provide a significant buffer, indicating strong cash generation capability to fund operations and manage debt.