Hey there, fellow investors! If you’re eyeing the airline sector, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is definitely a name that pops up. As of early December 2025, this $9.21 billion giant, a key player in the Airlines industry, is showing some interesting dynamics. The big question on everyone’s mind is whether AAL’s current stock price truly reflects its value and if it’s set for smooth sailing or more turbulence ahead.
Right now, AAL is trading at $13.96, and what’s caught my eye is its positive momentum. The stock is comfortably above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is often a good sign for bullish trends. However, it’s not all clear skies. Analysts are projecting a 1-year price target of $12.53, which surprisingly suggests a potential downside. Plus, with annualized volatility hovering around 40.7%, expect some significant price swings.
American Airlines has a compelling story, benefiting from a portfolio of well-known brands. Yet, it’s also up against intense competition and carries a substantial debt load of $36.06 billion. These are critical factors to consider, especially in today’s interest rate environment.
What’s Inside This Comprehensive AAL Stock Report?
We’re diving deep into AAL’s performance, giving you the full picture to help you make an informed investment decision. Here’s what we’ll cover:
- Is now a good time to buy AAL stock? The technical indicators offer a “Neutral” stance, though the RSI is screaming “overbought.” Fundamentally, caution is advised due to debt and growth metrics.
- Can American Airlines drive future growth? Its ability to grow will largely depend on its core operations and how it manages the fierce competitive landscape.
- What are the biggest risks for AAL investors? The company’s significant debt could be a major headwind, and competition remains a constant challenge.
Forget the complex jargon or overly simplistic “buy now” advice. My goal is to provide clear, actionable insights, whether you’re a long-term investor or chasing short-term gains. Let’s dig into the data and uncover whether American Airlines Group Inc. is the right choice for your portfolio.
Key Metrics and Forecast Summary for AAL
Let’s start with a quick snapshot of where American Airlines (AAL) stands right now. This table summarizes its current market status and what the immediate future might hold.
| Metric Category | Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | Live Market Price | $13.96 | As of December 2025 |
| Price Targets & Forecasts | 1-Month Forecast | $13.96 | +0.0% |
| 1-Year Forecast | $12.53 | -10.3% (Potential Downside) | |
| Analyst Mean Target | $14.97 | +7.2% (Potential Upside) | |
| Trend & Momentum | Trend | Bullish | Price > SMA 50/200 |
| RSI (14-day) | 89.7 | Overbought 🔥 | |
| MACD | 0.12 | Bullish Short-Term Trend | |
| Key Technical Levels | Above SMA 50 | $12.98 | ✅ Current Support |
| Above SMA 200 | $12.19 | ✅ Long-Term Support | |
| 52-Week Range | $8.50 – $19.10 | Wide Fluctuation | |
| Volatility | Volatility (30d Ann.) | 40.7% | 🌪️ High Volatility |
| Beta (vs. Market) | 1.27 | 🎢 High Sensitivity | |
| Green Days (30d) | 19/30 (63%) | 🟢 Mostly Positive Days | |
| Ownership | Institutional Ownership | 70.28% | 🏛️ Significant Institutional Backing |
| Short % of Float | 9.03% | 😰 Moderate Bearish Bets |
Currently, AAL’s stock is trading at $13.96, and technically, it’s flashing a bullish pattern. The price is holding strong relative to both its 50-day ($12.98) and 200-day ($12.19) moving averages, suggesting good recent momentum. However, here’s where we need to be cautious: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 89.7, firmly in overbought territory. While the MACD indicator does show a bullish short-term trend, that high RSI could signal a potential pullback before the next significant upward move.
Over the past year, AAL’s stock has seen quite a ride, trading between $8.50 and $19.10. This wide range tells us that investor sentiment has been quite mixed. The current price sits mid-range, which might mean fewer extreme swings unless there’s a major market catalyst. Looking ahead, analysts are forecasting a 1-year target of $12.53, indicating a potential -10.3% decline, but the average consensus target is a more optimistic $14.97, suggesting a +7.2% upside. It’s a bit of a mixed bag! With 70.28% institutional ownership and a moderate 9.03% short interest, it seems a notable portion of the market is betting on a price decline, yet institutions hold significant sway.
Detailed Forecast Table for AAL Stock Price
Understanding the potential future price movements for AAL is crucial for any investor. Our model projects a price range between approximately $3.85 and $19.88 over the next year.
The projected price range appears relatively consistent month-to-month, from the current $13.96 to a future range of $6.65 – $17.73, which implies stable forecast uncertainty. However, the model signal for most months indicates “Consider Short,” suggesting potential downside according to this specific projection.
| Month (Period) | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Potential ROI vs Current ($13.96) | Model Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12 | $13.96 | $13.96 | $13.96 | 0.0% | Hold/Neutral |
| 2026-01 | $9.15 | $13.12 | $17.60 | -6.0% | Consider Short |
| 2026-02 | $9.51 | $13.24 | $17.26 | -5.2% | Consider Short |
| 2026-03 | $8.06 | $12.94 | $16.17 | -7.3% | Consider Short |
| 2026-04 | $8.32 | $12.66 | $16.69 | -9.3% | Consider Short |
| 2026-05 | $6.25 | $12.28 | $17.51 | -12.1% | Consider Short |
| 2026-06 | $4.94 | $12.09 | $18.18 | -13.4% | Consider Short |
| 2026-07 | $5.57 | $12.01 | $18.35 | -14.0% | Consider Short |
| 2026-08 | $4.64 | $12.12 | $17.94 | -13.2% | Consider Short |
| 2026-09 | $3.97 | $12.02 | $18.38 | -13.9% | Consider Short |
| 2026-10 | $3.91 | $12.07 | $18.43 | -13.5% | Consider Short |
| 2026-11 | $3.85 | $12.53 | $19.88 | -10.3% | Consider Short |
| 2026-12 | $6.65 | $12.69 | $17.73 | -9.1% | Consider Short |
Keep in mind that these model forecasts are estimates based on current data and assumptions, which can change rapidly. Actual prices are never guaranteed.
Company Profile: American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
To truly understand AAL’s stock performance, we need to know what makes American Airlines tick. It’s a major player in the global airline industry, connecting people and cargo across continents.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Industrials |
| Industry | Airlines |
| Market Cap | $9.21 B |
| Employees | 136,900 |
| Website | https://www.aa.com |
American Airlines Group Inc. operates as a network air carrier across the United States, Latin America, the Atlantic, and the Pacific regions. They provide scheduled air transportation services for both passengers and cargo, utilizing major hubs in cities like Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Miami. They also extend their reach through partner gateways in key international cities such as London, Doha, and Tokyo. The company boasts a substantial mainline fleet of 977 aircraft.
Founded in 1926, the company was formerly known as AMR Corporation before changing its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. Its headquarters are located in Fort Worth, Texas. For more detailed company information, you can always check out their official investor relations page or their SEC filings.
Total Valuation of AAL: What’s the Real Price Tag?
While American Airlines is a significant presence in the Airlines industry with a $9.21 billion market cap, its enterprise value (EV) tells a different story. The EV stands much higher at $37.89 billion, with a substantial $28.68 billion of that value attributed to debt. This indicates that while investors are confident in AAL’s future earnings potential, the sheer volume of debt introduces a notable risk factor.
Looking at the valuation ratios, we see American Airlines trades at 0.70x revenue and 8.21x EBITDA. These multiples reflect its strong market position and established brand assets. However, it also suggests that the stock may have limited upside if the company encounters unexpected challenges. In essence, you’re paying for a quality, established player, but that quality comes at a premium.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $9.21 B |
| Enterprise Value | $37.89 B |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 0.70x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 8.21x |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2020-02-04 |
AAL Share Statistics: Who Owns American Airlines?
Let’s look at the ownership structure of American Airlines. Nearly all of the company’s 660 million shares are publicly available as float, meaning a significant portion isn’t locked up. A high float generally allows investors to trade the stock without causing drastic price swings. However, it’s also worth noting the potential for dilution if the company decides to issue more shares in the future.
Executives and major shareholders collectively own a relatively small portion of the company at 1.50%. This level of insider ownership helps to align their interests with those of public shareholders. What’s particularly significant is the institutional backing, with 70.28% institutional ownership, which often provides a degree of stability and confidence in the stock.
Now, let’s talk about short interest. There are currently 59 million shares shorted, representing 9.03% of the float. This indicates a moderate level of bearish sentiment. It’s crucial to monitor changes in this figure; a sharp increase could signal growing doubt among investors, while a low short interest during positive news might limit the chances of a ‘short squeeze.’
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 660 M |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 660 M |
| Shares Float | 650 M |
| Insider Ownership | 1.50% |
| Institutional Ownership | 70.28% |
| Shares Short | 59 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 1.10x |
| Short % of Float | 9.03% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | 71 M |
| Short Date | 2025-11-14 |
AAL Valuation Metrics: Is American Airlines Fairly Priced?
When we look at American Airlines’ valuation, the numbers tell an interesting story. With a Trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 16.05x and a Forward P/E of 6.91x, the stock appears to offer an attractive valuation opportunity, hinting at potential earnings growth ahead. These figures suggest that investors are paying a reasonable amount for AAL’s current and projected earnings.
Additionally, a Price/Sales ratio of $0.17 and a Price/Book of $-2.33 highlight that the company trades at multiples that warrant close attention. While a negative Price/Book can be a red flag, it’s not uncommon in capital-intensive industries with significant debt. These metrics collectively provide deeper insight into AAL’s market positioning.
From an enterprise value perspective, the EV/Revenue ratio of 0.70x suggests a reasonable revenue-based valuation, and the EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.21x points to a sensible earnings-based valuation. Together, these metrics offer a comprehensive view of American Airlines’ current market standing and how it’s valued by investors.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 16.05x |
| Forward P/E | 6.91x |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | $0.17 |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | $-2.33 |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 0.70x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 8.21x |
Financial Health of AAL: Balancing Cash Flow and Debt
American Airlines’ financial data reveals a mix of strengths and weaknesses. Despite its significant debt load of $36.06 billion, the company’s ability to generate $3.77 billion in operating cash flow over the trailing twelve months (TTM) is a major positive. This robust cash flow from its core business operations demonstrates a strong underlying capacity to produce funds.
However, a Current Ratio of 0.54x and a Quick Ratio of 0.38x point to potential short-term liquidity challenges. These ratios, both below 1.0, suggest that AAL might struggle to cover its immediate liabilities if its cash conversion cycle were to lengthen unexpectedly. On a brighter note, the company’s $422.50 million in levered free cash flow indicates it can still generate substantial cash for shareholders even after meeting all its financial obligations, including debt service.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets (ROA TTM) | 2.35% |
| Total Cash (MRQ) | $7.39 B |
| Total Debt (MRQ) | $36.06 B |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 0.54x |
| Quick Ratio (MRQ) | 0.38x |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | $3.77 B |
| Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $422.50 M |
Financial Efficiency of American Airlines
Let’s break down how efficiently American Airlines is running its operations. An Asset Turnover of 0.88x (TTM) tells us that for every dollar in assets, AAL generates $0.88 in revenue. This indicates moderate efficiency in utilizing its asset base, a crucial factor in a capital-intensive industry like airlines.
The Inventory Turnover of 16.20x suggests American Airlines is quite efficient at selling and replacing its inventory, doing so roughly 16.2 times annually. This translates to about 22.5 Days Inventory Outstanding, which is a good sign. Furthermore, a Receivables Turnover of 27.07x and 13.5 Days Sales Outstanding highlight excellent collection practices, meaning customers are paying their bills very quickly.
However, the Working Capital Turnover of -4.87x is a concerning indicator regarding the use of short-term assets to support sales, especially when coupled with a Current Ratio of 0.54x, which signals potential liquidity concerns. The Cash Conversion Cycle, estimated at approximately 36.0 days (partial), suggests it takes about 1.2 months to convert inventory and receivables into cash, indicating generally good cash flow efficiency. American Airlines’ Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) stands at 2.27%, which points to lower capital efficiency that could use improvement. Investors should compare these figures with industry peers, like those on Yahoo Finance, to gauge AAL’s competitive standing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset Turnover (TTM) | 0.88x |
| Inventory Turnover (TTM) | 16.20x |
| Receivables Turnover (TTM) | 27.07x |
| Working Capital Turnover (TTM) | -4.87x |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 0.54x |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 13.5 |
| Days Inventory Outstanding | 22.5 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | ~36.0 days (partial) |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC TTM) | 2.27% |
AAL Profitability and Growth: Are Margins Sustainable?
When we examine AAL’s margin performance, it’s clear the company has a decent grip on its costs and pricing strategies. A gross margin of 23.73% indicates effective control over production costs, while the 1.28% operating margin shows solid profitability from its core operations. An EBITDA margin of 8.50% further highlights AAL’s capacity to generate strong cash flow before financing and tax considerations.
Overall, American Airlines retains approximately 1.11% in net profit for every dollar of revenue over the last twelve months. While the business is seeing modest revenue growth at 0.30% year-over-year, investors should keep a close eye on whether this pace can be sustained without eroding those hard-won profit margins.
AAL’s $4.61 billion in EBITDA and $12.88 billion in gross profit underscore its substantial earning power. Meanwhile, $602.00 million in net income demonstrates how effectively that power translates into bottom-line results. The company appears to be trying to balance growth initiatives with the crucial need to maintain profitability. It’s worth noting the significant gap between the gross and net margins (23.73% vs. 1.11%), which likely points to high operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes—areas that investors should carefully monitor. Moving forward, defending pricing power and controlling operating costs will be paramount for sustaining profitability, especially if revenue growth moderates.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Profit Margin (TTM) | 1.11% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 1.28% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 23.73% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 8.50% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $54.29 B |
| Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY) | 0.30% |
| Gross Profit (TTM) | $12.88 B |
| EBITDA (TTM) | $4.61 B |
| Net Income (TTM) | $602.00 M |
Dividends and Shareholder Returns for AAL
When it comes to returning capital to shareholders through dividends, American Airlines (AAL) currently takes a different approach.
Based on the available data, AAL does not currently pay a regular dividend. This suggests that the company is likely prioritizing reinvesting its earnings back into the business, aiming for growth and strengthening its operations rather than distributing profits directly to shareholders as cash dividends. For many investors, especially those focused on growth, this strategy can be appealing, as reinvested earnings can fuel expansion and potentially lead to greater capital appreciation over time.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Payout Ratio | 0.00% |
| 5 Year Average Dividend Yield | 1.27% |
| Trailing Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2020-02-04 |
Technical Analysis: Decoding AAL’s Current Price Action
CURRENT PRICE: $13.96 | TREND: BULLISH BUT OVERHEATED
American Airlines stock has been on a strong upward trajectory, gaining an impressive +9.40% in just 15 days. While this momentum is certainly eye-catching, several technical indicators suggest that caution is warranted before chasing this rally. Let’s break down what the charts are telling us.
Trend Strength – Still Bullish
AAL is trading above its key moving averages, which is a clear confirmation that the underlying uptrend remains intact. Specifically, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $13.16 is currently acting as a dynamic support level.
What This Means for Traders: As long as AAL holds above the 20-day SMA ($13.16), the bullish momentum could continue. However, a rapid ascent can push the stock significantly far from its averages, increasing the risk of a swift pullback.
Momentum Check – Time to Be Cautious
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 89.7 is flashing a strong overbought signal. Historically, when the RSI climbs above the 70-75 threshold, we often see a cooling-off period or a pullback before the next leg up. Simultaneously, the MACD histogram remains positive, confirming that the upward momentum is still present in the short term.
Trading Strategy: Aggressive traders might consider taking partial profits to de-risk. For conservative investors, it would be prudent to wait for the RSI to cool down below 70 before contemplating new positions.
Bollinger Bands – Testing Key Levels
The stock is trading comfortably in the upper half of its Bollinger Bands, specifically between the 20-day SMA and the upper band. This positioning typically signals underlying strength and continued buying pressure.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: The recent high of $14.12 is a critical resistance level. A confirmed breakout above this point could propel AAL even higher.
- Support: The 20-day SMA at $13.16 is immediate support. If this level breaks, we should expect a test of $11.87.
Volume Trends – Checking for Conviction
Trading volume is currently near its recent average. This provides a neutral confirmation of the current price action, meaning there isn’t exceptionally strong conviction supporting either the bulls or the bears at this precise moment.
Support & Resistance – The Trading Plan
Here’s a practical trading plan based on these technical levels:
- ✅ If AAL holds above $13.16: The bullish trend is likely to continue, with the next target at $14.12.
- ⚠️ If it breaks below $13.16: Expect a dip toward $11.87.
- 🛑 A drop below $11.87: This could trigger a deeper correction, potentially heading towards the 200-day SMA at $12.19.
Final Verdict – Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell AAL?
Let’s summarize the technical outlook for different types of investors:
- Short-Term Traders: Exercise caution. The RSI is overbought at 89.7, and volume lacks strong conviction. Consider locking in partial profits near $14.12 and waiting for a more favorable entry point closer to the 20-day SMA ($13.16).
- Long-Term Investors: The long-term uptrend remains valid as long as the price stays above the 200-day SMA ($12.19). A pullback to the 50-day SMA ($12.98) area could present a safer buying opportunity.
- New Buyers: Avoid chasing the rally at current levels. It would be wiser to wait for either a confirmed breakout above $14.12 with strong volume, or a pullback to the $13.16 area, which would offer a more attractive risk/reward entry.
Bottom Line: The technical indicators suggest that the current rally might be losing short-term steam. While the long-term trend remains bullish, a correction seems plausible before the next significant upward move. Trade carefully and wait for clear confirmation at these key technical levels.
Historical Performance of AAL Stock
Looking back at recent trading activity provides valuable context for American Airlines’ current market position. In the period from November 17, 2025, to December 01, 2025, AAL’s stock price delivered a total return of +13.13%. During this time, the price fluctuated between a high of $14.12 and a low of $12.11. The average daily trading volume during this window was approximately 55,407,360 shares, indicating active investor interest.
Recent Trading Data for AAL
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | $13.77 | $14.12 | $13.56 | $13.96 | 75,390,600 |
| 2025-11-30 | $13.99 | $14.09 | $13.87 | $14.05 | 37,355,400 |
| 2025-11-29 | $13.99 | $14.09 | $13.87 | $14.05 | 37,355,400 |
| 2025-11-28 | $13.99 | $14.09 | $13.87 | $14.05 | 37,355,400 |
| 2025-11-27 | $13.53 | $14.11 | $13.45 | $13.93 | 64,271,200 |
| 2025-11-26 | $13.53 | $14.11 | $13.45 | $13.93 | 64,271,200 |
| 2025-11-25 | $13.10 | $13.79 | $13.10 | $13.46 | 67,325,800 |
| 2025-11-24 | $13.00 | $13.21 | $12.81 | $13.10 | 51,235,000 |
| 2025-11-23 | $12.34 | $13.06 | $12.32 | $12.87 | 64,957,100 |
| 2025-11-22 | $12.34 | $13.06 | $12.32 | $12.87 | 64,957,100 |
| 2025-11-21 | $12.34 | $13.06 | $12.32 | $12.87 | 64,957,100 |
| 2025-11-20 | $12.51 | $12.82 | $12.23 | $12.24 | 58,148,600 |
| 2025-11-19 | $12.58 | $12.66 | $12.15 | $12.33 | 53,959,800 |
| 2025-11-18 | $12.22 | $12.46 | $12.11 | $12.36 | 46,515,100 |
| 2025-11-17 | $12.76 | $12.78 | $12.25 | $12.34 | 43,055,600 |
AAL Stock Price Statistics & Volatility Insights
When examining American Airlines’ stock price statistics, a few key figures jump out. Over the past year, the stock has traded within a wide range, hitting a high of $19.10 and a low of $8.50. This significant spread indicates that AAL has experienced considerable volatility, likely influenced by broader market sentiment or specific company news.
Currently, the 50-day moving average sits at $12.51, which is above the 200-day moving average of $11.98. This configuration, often referred to as a ‘golden cross,’ is typically seen as a bullish signal, suggesting positive long-term momentum is building.
The stock also carries a Beta of 1.27x, meaning it tends to move with greater intensity than the overall market—approximately 27% more volatile. Combined with a high 30-day annualized volatility of 40.7%, it’s clear that AAL experiences frequent and sometimes sharp price swings. For investors, this translates to the potential for higher gains, but it also comes with increased downside risk. These indicators are crucial for deciding position sizing and entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that balances stability with growth exposure. You can often find similar statistics and real-time updates on platforms like MarketWatch.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week High | $19.10 |
| 52 Week Low | $8.50 |
| 50 Day MA | $12.51 |
| 200 Day MA | $11.98 |
| Beta | 1.27x |
| Volatility (30d Ann.) | 40.7% |
AAL Quarterly Earnings Performance and Growth Metrics
Let’s take a look at American Airlines’ recent quarterly financial performance to understand its operational trajectory. The company’s latest reported quarter showed revenue of $13.69 billion, though it recorded a net income of -$114.00 million.
While the quarter-over-quarter revenue change was -4.9%, reflecting a slight dip, the year-over-year revenue growth stands at a positive +0.3%, indicating a relatively stable top-line performance over a longer period.
Recent Quarterly Results (Last 4 Quarters)
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS | Gross Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q3 | $13.69 B | -$114.00 M | -0.17x | 17.3% |
| 2025-Q2 | $14.39 B | $599.00 M | 0.91x | 23.7% |
| 2025-Q1 | $12.55 B | -$473.00 M | -0.72x | 15.0% |
| 2024-Q4 | $13.66 B | $590.00 M | 0.84x | 23.3% |
Growth Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| QoQ Revenue Growth | -4.9% |
| QoQ Net Income Growth | -119.0% |
| YoY Revenue Growth | +0.3% |
Short Selling Information for AAL Stock
Understanding short interest can give us a peek into bearish sentiment surrounding a stock. Currently, there are 59 million shares of AAL sold short, and the short ratio (or days to cover) stands at 1.1x. This means that, at the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take approximately just over one day for all short positions to be covered. This relatively low figure suggests that short sellers don’t currently exert significant control over the stock’s price, and the risk of a prolonged ‘short squeeze’ is relatively low.
With 9.03% of the public float sold short, a moderate percentage of the stock is being targeted by bears. This indicates some negative sentiment, but it’s not an extreme level that might signal deep-seated issues. Interestingly, this level has recently decreased from 71 million shares shorted in the prior month, suggesting a slight shift in bearish sentiment. While the short interest isn’t alarmingly high, investors should still be aware of potential volatility spikes, which could be triggered if significant news forces short sellers to cover their positions quickly.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Short | 59 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 1.10x |
| Short % of Float | 9.03% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | 71 M |
| Short Date | 2025-11-14 |
Risk Analysis for American Airlines (AAL)
Investing in American Airlines (AAL) comes with a clear set of risks that potential investors should carefully consider. AAL’s risk profile indicates high volatility, with an annualized volatility of 43.6%. This elevated figure suggests a significant level of investment risk, meaning the stock’s price can fluctuate widely and rapidly.
The Sharpe ratio, at -0.01x, suggests poor risk-adjusted returns. In simple terms, for the level of risk taken, the returns generated have not been favorable. Furthermore, a maximum drawdown of -84.14% indicates that the stock has experienced significant declines from its peak value during adverse market conditions, highlighting substantial downside risk.
The Value at Risk (VaR) at a 5% confidence level points to a potential loss of -3.97% in the worst 5% of scenarios. This metric helps quantify the potential financial loss within a specific timeframe and probability. The Sortino ratio, also at -0.01x, specifically focuses on downside risk, providing additional insight into how well the stock’s returns compensate for negative volatility.
Investors should weigh these risk metrics carefully against their own risk tolerance and overall investment objectives.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Volatility (Annualized) | 43.6% |
| Value at Risk (5%) | -3.97% |
| Value at Risk (1%) | -7.58% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.01x |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.01x |
| Maximum Drawdown | -84.14% |
| Skewness | 1.62x |
| Kurtosis | 29.67x |
Sentiment Analysis: What’s the Market Saying About AAL?
Current market sentiment regarding American Airlines (AAL) reveals a cautiously positive outlook. The composite sentiment score stands at 0.21x, with a confidence level of 39.4%. This positive sentiment is derived from various data sources, including recent news coverage, analyst recommendations, and activity in the options market.
Breaking down these components, news analysis shows a “Neutral” sentiment at 0.04x, indicating no strong positive or negative bias from recent headlines. Analyst consensus, however, leans “Positive” at 0.40x, suggesting that professional analysts are generally optimistic about AAL’s prospects. Interestingly, options market sentiment reflects a “Negative” view at -0.11x, which could signal hedging activity or a belief among some traders that the stock may face downward pressure.
This overall weak sentiment signal should be considered alongside AAL’s fundamental and technical analysis to form a comprehensive investment perspective.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Sentiment Score | 0.21x |
| Sentiment Classification | Positive |
| Sentiment Confidence | 39.4% |
| News Sentiment | Neutral (0.04x) |
| Analyst Sentiment | Positive (0.40x) |
| Options Sentiment | Negative (-0.11x) |
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.56x |
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AAL Peer Comparison: How Does it Stack Up?
Let’s see how American Airlines (AAL) measures up against its major competitors in the airline industry, such as Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV).
AAL’s $9.21 billion market cap positions it as the smallest among this group. Delta (DAL) leads with a $41.89 billion market cap, followed by United (UAL) at $32.74 billion, and Southwest (LUV) at $18.26 billion.
In terms of valuation, AAL’s conservative P/E ratio of 16.05x suggests a value-oriented pricing compared to LUV, which trades at a premium P/E of 55.19x. In contrast, DAL (P/E 9.05x) and UAL (P/E 10.13x) trade at much lower multiples, reflecting potentially more mature or slower-growth business outlooks. AAL’s revenue growth of 0.30% shows modest expansion, while its 1.11% net margin indicates positive but modest profitability. This is notably lower than DAL (7.36%) and UAL (5.64%), though comparable to LUV (1.38%).
Dividend policies vary significantly across these airlines. Delta (1.17% yield) and Southwest (2.07% yield) reward shareholders with payouts, whereas American Airlines (0.00% yield) currently prioritizes reinvesting all cash back into growth initiatives.
| Metric | AAL | DAL | UAL | LUV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $9.21B | $41.89B | $32.74B | $18.26B |
| P/E Ratio | 16.05 | 9.05 | 10.13 | 55.19 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.30% | 6.40% | 2.60% | 1.20% |
| Net Margin | 1.11% | 7.36% | 5.64% | 1.38% |
| EPS | 0.87 | 7.09 | 9.98 | 0.63 |
| ROE | 28.51% | 25.59% | 4.17% | |
| Debt-to-Equity | 117 | 219 | 67.62 | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% | 1.17% | 0.00% | 2.07% |
| 52-Week Range | 8.50 – 19.10 | 34.41 – 69.15 | 52.00 – 116.00 | 23.55 – 37.75 |
Insider Transactions (Last 3 Months) for AAL
Examining insider activity can sometimes offer clues about a company’s health and future prospects. Over the last three months, there have been 5 insider transactions involving AAL stock. What’s interesting is that all 5 of these transactions were stock awards or tax-related dispositions, rather than discretionary market buys or sells by executives.
Specifically, there was 1 ‘Buy’ transaction (an award) and 4 ‘Sell’ transactions (all tax payments). The predominance of award-related transactions suggests these are routine equity compensation activities. They are less likely to be strong directional signals about the company’s immediate prospects or a reflection of insiders’ personal conviction regarding the stock price. It’s important to differentiate these from direct market purchases or sales, which often carry more weight in interpreting insider sentiment.
| Insider Name | Type | Shares Changed | Price | Shares After | Transaction Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson Stephen L | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -22,392 | $12.45 | 1,822,924 | 2025-09-20 | 2025-09-23 |
| Johnson Stephen L | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -17,701 | $12.45 | 1,845,316 | 2025-09-20 | 2025-09-23 |
| Isom Robert D Jr | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -27,620 | $12.45 | 3,469,311 | 2025-09-20 | 2025-09-23 |
| Isom Robert D Jr | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -57,625 | $12.45 | 3,496,951 | 2025-09-20 | 2025-09-23 |
Key Risk Factors for AAL Investors
Potential investors in American Airlines (AAL) should be keenly aware of several significant risk factors. While this list highlights key considerations based on available data and market dynamics, it’s not exhaustive and may not cover all possible risks.
- ⚠️ Overbought Conditions: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AAL is currently at 89.7, which is significantly above the 70-mark. This suggests that the stock may be in overbought territory, indicating a potential for a near-term price pullback or correction.
- ⚠️ Liquidity Challenges: AAL’s Current Ratio stands at 0.54x, which is below the ideal 1.0 threshold. This suggests potential short-term liquidity challenges, meaning the company might face difficulties in covering its immediate liabilities with its current assets.
- ⚠️ Market Fluctuations: Like all stocks, AAL is susceptible to general market fluctuations and broader economic conditions. Given its position in the Industrials sector, factors such as fuel prices, geopolitical events, and consumer spending habits can significantly impact its performance.
Analyst Insights and Consensus for AAL Stock
What are the professionals on Wall Street saying about American Airlines (AAL)? This section summarizes the collective view of the analysts who actively cover the stock.
The overwhelming consensus recommendation for AAL is a ‘Buy’. This strong sentiment is based on the opinions of 20 contributing analysts. The mean price target set by these analysts is $14.97, with individual targets ranging from a low of $10.00 to a high of $20.00. This average target suggests a potential upside of approximately 7.2% compared to the current price of $13.96. This consensus provides a valuable gauge of Wall Street’s sentiment regarding AAL’s future potential.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | Buy |
| Mean Target Price | $14.97 |
| High Target Price | $20.00 |
| Low Target Price | $10.00 |
| Number of Analyst Opinions | 20 |
Recent News and Developments Affecting AAL
Staying up-to-date with the latest news is crucial for any investor, as recent developments can significantly impact a company’s stock performance. Here are some of the key headlines affecting American Airlines (AAL) in the last few days:
- American Airlines (AAL): Evaluating Valuation After Resolving Major A320 Software Issue
Publisher: Simply Wall St. | Published: 2025-12-01T21:13:31Z
This report suggests that the resolution of a critical software issue for Airbus A320 planes could positively impact AAL’s valuation, as it addresses a potential operational bottleneck.
- Thanksgiving Sunday Sets New U.S. Air Travel Record. Why Airline Stocks Are Falling.
Publisher: Barrons.com | Published: 2025-12-01T16:10:00Z
Despite record-breaking travel numbers, this article explores the paradox of falling airline stock prices, hinting at broader market concerns or profit-taking despite strong demand.
- BC-Most Active Stocks
Publisher: Associated Press Finance | Published: 2025-12-01T15:30:35Z
AAL was listed among the most active stocks, indicating significant trading interest and potentially higher volatility.
- ‘Significant Number’ of Airbus Planes Require Critical Software Fix Before They Can Fly
Publisher: The Wall Street Journal | Published: 2025-11-29T15:20:00Z
This earlier report from The Wall Street Journal highlighted the software issue that American Airlines has since addressed, underscoring the operational challenges airlines can face.
- Vacations won’t be priority for low-end travelers in 2026: Analyst
Publisher: Yahoo Finance Video | Published: 2025-11-27T12:00:13Z
This analytical piece suggests a potential shift in consumer spending habits, which could impact future demand for airline services, particularly from budget-conscious travelers.
Conclusion and Investment Outlook for AAL
Wrapping up our deep dive into American Airlines (AAL), let’s summarize the key takeaways for your investment decision-making.
Short-Term Technical Snapshot
- Overall Technical Sentiment: Neutral
- Price Trend vs MAs: Bullish (currently trading above both 50-day and 200-day SMAs)
- Momentum (RSI): Overbought (RSI at 89.7), signaling potential for a near-term pullback.
- Support / Resistance (30d): Key levels to watch are ~$12.11 (support) and ~$14.12 (resistance).
Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook
- 1-Year Avg. Forecast: Model projects approximately -10.3% average change, targeting around $12.53.
- Fundamental Health: Assessment is nuanced, with strong operating cash flow balanced against significant debt and liquidity ratios below 1.0.
- Valuation Snapshot: Appears Potentially Attractive with a Forward P/E of 6.91x.
- Recent Growth (YoY): Revenue growth stands at +0.30%.
- Analyst Consensus: A strong ‘Buy’ recommendation with a mean target price of $14.97.
Overall Assessment & Outlook
Considering both the technical momentum and underlying fundamental drivers, AAL exhibits a Neutral technical sentiment, primarily due to the overbought RSI despite a bullish trend. Fundamentally, the company demonstrates moderate health, characterized by strong cash generation capabilities but offset by notable debt levels and short-term liquidity concerns. Its valuation appears Potentially Attractive, particularly when looking at its Forward P/E ratio.
However, our models project a 1-year path indicating potential downside, with an average change of approximately -10.3%, targeting around $12.53. It’s crucial for investors to factor in these elements alongside the specific risks outlined earlier and align them with their personal strategic goals and risk tolerance.
Frequently Asked Questions About AAL Stock
What is the AAL stock price prediction for the next year (2025-2026)?
Based on current models, the average 1-year price forecast for American Airlines (AAL) is approximately $12.53. This represents a potential -10.3% change from the recent price of $13.96. Remember, this is a model-driven estimate and not a guarantee; actual prices will fluctuate based on numerous market and company-specific factors.
Will AAL stock go up or down?
The 1-year forecast model suggests the price might decrease significantly on average (-10.3% potential). However, the short-term direction is highly uncertain and heavily influenced by prevailing market sentiment (currently ‘Neutral’), breaking news, and overall economic conditions. Technical indicators, such as the overbought RSI (89.7), provide clues for near-term direction, suggesting caution or a potential pullback before any sustained upward movement.
Is AAL stock a good investment right now?
Deciding if AAL is a ‘good buy’ right now involves balancing various elements. Technically, the RSI indicates overbought conditions (RSI: 89.7), suggesting caution or potential for a pullback. While the 1-year forecast model points to a potential -10.3% downside, analyst consensus is a ‘Buy’ with a target of $14.97. You should weigh the company’s valuation, stability, and growth prospects against the 3 potentially significant risk factors specific to AAL that were identified (see Risk Factors section). Always align any investment with your own investment goals and risk profile.
How volatile is AAL stock?
Based on recent 30-day price action, AAL’s annualized volatility is approximately 40.7%. This level is considered elevated, indicating a significant degree of recent price fluctuation. This aligns with its Beta of 1.27x, meaning it tends to be more volatile than the broader market. Higher volatility means larger potential price swings, both up and down.
What is AAL’s P/E ratio and what does it mean?
AAL’s Trailing P/E ratio (based on past earnings) is 16.05x, which is considered moderate. The Forward P/E (based on expected earnings) is 6.91x. A P/E ratio indicates how much investors are paying per dollar of earnings. You should compare this to industry peers and historical levels. A high P/E isn’t necessarily bad if strong growth justifies it, but a moderate or lower P/E can sometimes suggest an attractive valuation.
What does AAL’s liquidity position reveal about its financial health?
AAL’s financial health includes a Current Ratio of 0.54x, which is below 1.0 and suggests potential short-term liquidity challenges. This means it might struggle to cover its immediate liabilities with current assets. However, its robust operating cash flow ($3.77 billion) and levered free cash flow ($422.50 million) provide a significant buffer and are critical factors in its ability to fund operations and service its debt obligations.
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