Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock Analysis: Navigating Current Trends & Future Prospects
Hey there, fellow investors! Today, we’re diving deep into Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), a significant player with a $20.21 billion market capitalization in the dynamic Computer Hardware industry. The big question on everyone’s mind is always the same: Does the current stock price truly reflect its fair value, and is SMCI set for robust growth in the years to come? It’s a nuanced picture, and we’re here to break it down for you.
SMCI Stock: Key Insights for Investors Today
As of November 2025, SMCI is trading at $33.85. The stock is currently caught in a bearish trend, signaling caution as it trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It’s definitely a period where investors are watching closely.
Analysts are expressing a degree of caution, with a 1-year price target pointing to $20.50, suggesting a potential -39.4% downside from current levels. However, it’s worth noting the average analyst consensus target is higher at $48.53, indicating a potential +43.4% upside. This divergence highlights the significant volatility in SMCI, with an annualized volatility of 58.3%, meaning we can expect some wide price swings. For a comprehensive view of company filings, you can always check the SEC Edgar database.
Super Micro Computer’s fundamental story is quite interesting. On one hand, the company leverages a portfolio of established brands, which is a definite strength. On the other, it’s facing headwinds with a recent contraction in earnings, down -61.60% year-over-year. This mixed bag makes for a compelling analysis.
What This SMCI Stock Deep Dive Covers
We’re not just going to throw a bunch of numbers at you and call it a day. Our goal is to dissect SMCI’s stock from every possible angle, empowering you to make a truly informed decision, whether you’re a long-term investor or chasing quicker gains:
- Is now a good time to buy? The technical indicators whisper “bearish,” yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting pretty at a neutral 37.7. Fundamentally, things are looking solid, driven by manageable debt levels and promising growth metrics.
- Can its core operations drive future growth? Future growth will heavily depend on how well its core Computer Hardware operations perform and its ability to skillfully navigate competitive pressures.
- What are the biggest risks? The company carries a substantial debt load of $5.17 billion, which could become a notable challenge in a rising interest rate environment. Plus, competition in this sector is always fierce, coming from both established industry giants and agile new entrants.
Forget the overly complicated jargon or the simplistic “just buy” advice you often encounter. We’re here to provide clear, actionable information that genuinely benefits you. So, is Super Micro Computer, Inc. the right move to ensure your money thrives, or are there hidden issues demanding caution? Let’s get into the nitty-gritty details.
SMCI Stock: Key Metrics & Forecast Summary (Current View)
Let’s kick things off with a snapshot of Super Micro Computer’s current market standing and a quick look at what the models are forecasting.
| Metric | Value | Insight |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $33.85 | Live Market Price (November 2025) |
| 1-Month Forecast | $33.85 | 📉 -0.0% change |
| 1-Year Forecast | $20.50 | 📉 -39.4% potential downside |
| Analyst Mean Target | $48.53 | 📈 +43.4% potential upside |
| Trend | 📉 ▼ Bearish | Price < SMA 50/200 |
| RSI (14-day) | 37.7 | ⚖️ Neutral momentum |
| MACD | 0.46 | 📈 Bullish Short-Term Trend |
| Above SMA 50 | ❌ $44.12 | Currently below this key resistance |
| Above SMA 200 | ❌ $45.91 | Currently below this long-term resistance |
| 52-Week Range | 📏 $25.71 – $66.44 | Wide historical price swings |
| Volatility (30d Ann.) | 58.3% | 🌪️ High price fluctuation |
| Beta (vs. Market) | 1.48x | 🎢 High sensitivity to market movements |
| Green Days (30d) | 13/30 (43%) | 🟡 Less than half of recent days were positive |
| Institutional Ownership | 55.37% | 🏢 Significant institutional backing |
| Short % of Float | 19.46% | 😰 High bearish bets against the stock |
Right now, SMCI’s stock is trading at $33.85. The technical picture is leaning bearish because the price is holding below both its 50-day ($44.12) and 200-day ($45.91) moving averages. This suggests that recent momentum has been downward. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 37.7, meaning it’s neither overbought nor oversold, which can offer some flexibility. Interestingly, the MACD indicator shows a bullish short-term trend, hinting at potential minor pullbacks before any significant upward movement.
Looking back over the past year, SMCI’s stock has traded between $25.71 and $66.44. This wide range tells us two important things: first, the stock has retreated considerably from its peak, and second, the current price is closer to the lower end of that range. This might imply that massive swings are less probable unless a major catalyst emerges. Analysts are projecting varied outcomes, with a 1-year target of $20.50 (a potential -39.4% downside) but an average consensus target of $48.53 (a potential +43.4% upside). With 55.37% institutional ownership and a notable short interest of 19.46%, it seems a segment of investors is betting on a price decline.
SMCI Price Forecast Chart: Understanding Future Trajectories
While we can’t show you the actual chart here, imagine a visual representation where recent actual average prices are plotted alongside a forecasted price range, indicating low, average, and high projections based on sophisticated models like the Prophet model. This visual helps to quickly grasp the potential future trajectory of SMCI’s stock price.
Detailed SMCI Price Forecast Table (2025-2026)
Let’s break down the month-by-month forecast for SMCI, which models a potential overall range from $0.00 to $55.09. This table shows projected price bands, potential Return on Investment (ROI) against the current price, and the model’s signal for each period.
| Month (Period) | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Potential ROI vs Current ($33.85) | Model Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11 | $33.85 | $33.85 | $33.85 | ● -0.0% | Hold/Neutral |
| 2026-02 | $4.13 | $23.02 | $37.15 | ▼ -32.0% | Consider Short |
| 2026-03 | $18.49 | $36.34 | $55.09 | ▲ 7.3% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-04 | $25.77 | $36.89 | $48.60 | ▲ 9.0% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-05 | $21.74 | $34.42 | $48.30 | ▲ 1.7% | Hold/Neutral |
| 2026-06 | $22.18 | $35.58 | $49.90 | ▲ 5.1% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-07 | $25.45 | $37.25 | $53.63 | ▲ 10.0% | Consider Buy |
| 2026-08 | $15.15 | $30.07 | $46.56 | ▼ -11.2% | Consider Short |
| 2026-09 | $11.16 | $22.20 | $33.56 | ▼ -34.4% | Consider Short |
| 2026-10 | $6.62 | $20.50 | $34.30 | ▼ -39.4% | Consider Short |
Over the projected horizon from November 2025 to November 2026, SMCI’s price is modeled to fluctuate significantly, with a range between approximately $0.00 and $55.09. The projected price range does show some consistency in its uncertainty, moving from $33.85 – $33.85 initially to $0.00 – $31.62 by the end of the period.
It’s vital to remember that these forecasts are model-generated, carrying inherent uncertainty. They can shift rapidly with new data, evolving market dynamics, or unexpected company developments. Future prices are never guaranteed.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Company Profile & Business Overview
Let’s get to know the company behind the ticker. Super Micro Computer, Inc. is a prominent player in the Technology sector, specifically within the Computer Hardware industry. Headquartered in San Jose, California, and incorporated in 1993, the company boasts 6,238 employees and a robust online presence at supermicro.com.
Business Overview
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), along with its subsidiaries, is a global developer and seller of server and storage solutions. They operate across the United States, Asia, Europe, and other international markets, focusing on modular and open-standard architectures.
Their product portfolio is quite extensive. It includes advanced liquid and air-cooled AI servers, designed for both training and inferencing, featuring integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe-based architectures. They also offer a range of blade and multi-node systems like SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin, alongside SuperStorage systems.
Beyond these, SMCI provides Hyper, CloudDC, WIO, and rackmount systems, specialized embedded systems for 5G, IoT, and Edge computing, and MicroCloud server systems. Their offerings extend to workstations, networking devices, and modular server subsystems and accessories, which include server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other essential components.
SMCI also delivers comprehensive remote system management solutions. This suite encompasses Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. Furthermore, the company offers full-spectrum services, from identifying service requirements and creating project plans to conducting verification testing, providing training, and offering technical documentation. They even provide rack-level services, from design to deployment, for full rack and cluster-level implementations in AI and HPC data centers, along with help desk, on-site product support, warranties, maintenance, and technical support services.
The company strategically serves key markets such as enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing. They reach their customers through a diverse sales force, including direct sales, indirect channels, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers.
SMCI Total Valuation: Market Cap, Enterprise Value & Ratios
While the market recognizes Super Micro Computer, Inc. as a crucial player in the Computer Hardware industry with a market cap of $20.21 billion, its enterprise value (EV) tells a slightly different story. The EV stands at a higher $21.16 billion, with $950.00 million of that value attributed to debt. This suggests that while investors are confident about SMCI’s future earnings, the substantial debt load is a factor to keep in mind.
When we look at the valuation ratios, they paint an interesting picture. With an EV/Revenue (TTM) of 1.00x and an EV/EBITDA (TTM) of 21.43x, SMCI trades at a premium compared to many of its peers. This premium often reflects the company’s strong market position and the perceived value of its brand assets. However, it also means there might be less room for error, as you’re essentially paying for quality – and quality typically doesn’t come cheap.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $20.21 B |
| Enterprise Value | $21.16 B |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 1.00x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 21.43x |
SMCI Share Statistics: Ownership, Float & Short Interest
Understanding who owns a company’s shares and how many are available for trading can give us valuable insights into its stability and potential for price movements. Let’s look at SMCI’s share statistics.
Approximately 16.8% of Super Micro Computer’s shares are tightly held by insiders or strategic investors, aligning their interests closely with long-term shareholders. The remaining 497 million shares constitute the public float, which is quite high. A large float generally allows investors to trade the stock without causing significant price shifts. However, it also means the company could issue more shares, potentially diluting the value of existing stock.
Executives and major shareholders hold a substantial 16.54% stake, which is a positive sign for governance and alignment. Furthermore, institutional ownership is healthy at 55.37%, indicating a degree of stability and confidence from major investment firms.
Now, let’s consider the impact of short interest. With 88 million shares currently shorted, representing 19.46% of the float, a significant portion of the market is betting against SMCI. This high short interest suggests that a notable segment of investors perceives elevated risk. It’s crucial to monitor changes in short interest, as a sharp increase could signal growing doubt among bearish investors. Conversely, very low short interest during positive news can sometimes prevent a ‘short squeeze’ from occurring.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 597 M |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 597 M |
| Shares Float | 497 M |
| Insider Ownership | 16.54% |
| Institutional Ownership | 55.37% |
| Shares Short | 88 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 2.90x |
| Short % of Float | 19.46% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | 85 M |
| Short Date | 2025-11-14 |
SMCI Valuation Metrics: P/E, Price/Sales, EV/EBITDA Analysis
When evaluating SMCI, its valuation metrics offer a compelling narrative. The Trailing P/E ratio stands at 26.65x, while the Forward P/E is notably lower at 7.98x. This significant drop suggests that the market anticipates strong earnings growth moving forward, presenting a potentially attractive valuation opportunity if those expectations materialize. Meanwhile, the Price/Sales ratio of 0.96x and Price/Book of 3.10x indicate that the company trades at multiples that warrant attention, providing insight into its market positioning relative to its sales and book value.
From an enterprise value perspective, the EV/Revenue ratio of 1.00x suggests a reasonable valuation based on its revenue. However, the EV/EBITDA multiple of 21.43x could point to a potentially stretched valuation. These valuation metrics collectively offer a comprehensive view of Super Micro Computer’s current market standing and what investors are paying for its earnings, sales, and assets.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 26.65x |
| Forward P/E | 7.98x |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | $0.96 |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | $3.10 |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 1.00x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 21.43x |
SMCI Financial Health: Liquidity, Debt, and Cash Flow Analysis
SMCI’s financial health appears quite robust, showcasing several key strengths that investors typically look for. The Return on Equity (ROE) of 12.79% and Return on Assets (ROA) of 4.59% reflect highly efficient use of capital. These figures are often seen in companies that are effectively deploying their resources to generate profits, especially in growing firms.
The Debt/Equity ratio of 0.79x, with $5.17 billion in total debt and $4.21 billion in cash, indicates that SMCI has taken on a manageable debt load to fuel its operations and growth. This balanced approach is reassuring. Even with its debt, the company’s ability to generate $333.10 million in operating cash flow (TTM) proves that its core business can steadily produce cash, which is a significant strength and a sign of operational efficiency.
Furthermore, the Current Ratio of 5.39x and Quick Ratio of 2.87x highlight a solid liquidity position. This means SMCI is well-equipped to cover its short-term liabilities with ease. For investors, this financial profile points to a resilient and well-managed company. The combination of low debt and strong liquidity provides a solid safety net and the flexibility to invest in future growth, navigate economic downturns, or potentially increase shareholder returns.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Return on Equity (ROE TTM) | 12.79% |
| Return on Assets (ROA TTM) | 4.59% |
| Debt/Equity (MRQ) | 0.79x |
| Total Cash (MRQ) | $4.21 B |
| Total Debt (MRQ) | $5.17 B |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 5.39x |
| Quick Ratio (MRQ) | 2.87x |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | $333.10 M |
SMCI Financial Efficiency: Asset, Inventory, and Cash Conversion
Super Micro Computer’s operational efficiency is quite noteworthy. Its Asset Turnover of 1.50x suggests that for every dollar of assets, the company generates $1.50 in revenue. This indicates a solid ability to utilize its asset base effectively. The Inventory Turnover of 4.18x shows that SMCI sells and replaces its inventory roughly 4.2 times annually, translating to approximately 87.3 Days Inventory Outstanding.
Meanwhile, a Receivables Turnover of 9.55x and 38.2 Days Sales Outstanding reflect strong collections processes, meaning customers are paying their invoices relatively quickly. The Working Capital Turnover of 2.11x points to efficient use of short-term assets to support sales, further bolstered by a Current Ratio of 5.39x, which signals excellent liquidity. These are all positive signs for operational management.
The Cash Conversion Cycle, estimated at approximately 125.5 days (partial), suggests it takes about 4.2 months to convert inventory and receivables into cash. This extended cycle could potentially put some strain on working capital, an area investors might want to monitor. Super Micro Computer’s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.17% indicates moderate capital efficiency, showing how effectively the company generates returns from its invested capital. Overall, SMCI demonstrates effective asset management that supports strong profitability, but comparing these figures with industry peers is essential to fully assess its competitive positioning.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset Turnover (TTM) | 1.50x |
| Inventory Turnover (TTM) | 4.18x |
| Receivables Turnover (TTM) | 9.55x |
| Working Capital Turnover (TTM) | 2.11x |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 5.39x |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 38.2 |
| Days Inventory Outstanding | 87.3 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | ~125.5 days (partial) |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC TTM) | 7.17% |
SMCI Profitability & Growth: Margins, Revenue, and Earnings Trends
A closer look at SMCI’s margin performance reveals that the company has a solid grip on its costs and pricing strategies. The gross margin of 10.08% indicates effective control over production costs. Furthermore, the operating margin of 3.63% shows strong profitability from its core operations. An EBITDA margin of 4.69% suggests SMCI is capable of generating healthy cash flow before accounting for financing and tax strategies.
All things considered, SMCI manages to retain approximately $3.770 in net profit for every dollar of its revenue over the last twelve months. While the business’s revenue is currently decreasing at a rate of -15.50% year-over-year, investors should carefully monitor if this trend can be reversed without eroding these healthy profit margins.
SMCI’s $987.36 million in EBITDA and $2.12 billion in gross profit highlight its raw earning power. The $792.81 million in net income demonstrates how effectively it converts that power into bottom-line results. These indicators suggest the company is currently prioritizing strong profitability, even if top-line growth has moderated. There’s a noticeable difference between the gross and net margins (10.08% vs. 3.77%), likely due to operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes, which are key areas for investors to watch.
Moving forward, maintaining and improving these margins will be crucial. SMCI needs to defend its pricing power and control operating costs, especially if revenue growth remains subdued.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Profit Margin (TTM) | 3.77% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 3.63% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 10.08% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 4.69% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $21.05 B |
| Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY) | -15.50% |
| Gross Profit (TTM) | $2.12 B |
| EBITDA (TTM) | $987.36 M |
| Net Income (TTM) | $792.81 M |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | -61.60% |
SMCI Dividends & Shareholder Returns: What Investors Need to Know
For those of you focused on income generation, it’s important to note that based on the latest available data, SMCI does not currently pay a regular dividend. This often suggests that the company is prioritizing the reinvestment of its earnings back into the business, aiming to fuel growth and expansion rather than distributing profits directly to shareholders. This strategy can be appealing to growth-oriented investors.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Payout Ratio | 0.00% |
| Trailing Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Last Split Date | 2024-10-01 |
| Last Split Factor | 10:1 |
SMCI Technical Analysis: Price Action, Trends & Trading Signals
The current price for SMCI stands at $33.85, and the trend is unequivocally bearish and continues to weaken. The stock has experienced downward pressure, losing -3.53% in just the last 15 days. So, is this a potential buying opportunity, or is it a warning sign for further declines? Let’s dissect the technical indicators to find out.
SMCI Trend Strength: Is the Bearish Momentum Persistent?
SMCI is clearly in a bearish trend, trading below its key moving averages. This is a classic signal for caution among technical traders. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $34.86 is now acting as overhead resistance. As long as the price remains below this level, the bearish trend is likely to persist. A rejection from this average could very well lead to a re-test of recent lows.
SMCI Momentum Check: RSI, MACD & Price Action
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 37.7, placing it in a neutral zone. This indicates a balanced momentum, meaning the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. However, what’s interesting is that the MACD histogram is positive, suggesting that some upward momentum is still in play, possibly hinting at minor pullbacks before the next move.
For traders, this neutral RSI offers flexibility. Keep a close eye on a decisive MACD crossover or a clear break of a key support or resistance level for the next directional clue. These signals can often precede significant price movements.
SMCI Bollinger Bands: Identifying Key Support & Resistance
Looking at the Bollinger Bands, SMCI is currently trading near the middle of its bands, with the 20-day SMA at $34.86. The lower band, positioned at $29.51, offers the next crucial level of support. This setup suggests the stock is currently in a consolidation phase, testing important boundaries.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $53.01 (Recent High) → A decisive breakout above this level, especially with strong volume, could propel SMCI significantly higher.
- Support: $34.86 (20-day SMA) → If the price breaks below this level, expect a test of $29.51.
- Critical Support: $29.51 (Lower Bollinger Band) → A drop below this point could trigger a deeper correction, potentially towards the 200-day SMA at $45.91 (note: this is higher than current price, indicating significant distance from long-term average).
SMCI Volume Trends: Is Trading Conviction Strong?
Trading volume for SMCI is currently near its recent average, providing a neutral confirmation of the current price action. While not overtly strong, it also doesn’t suggest a lack of interest.
The concern here is that rallies occurring on low volume are often prone to sharp reversals. If we don’t see a significant surge in buying interest to confirm any upward move, a pullback becomes more likely. High conviction moves usually come with increased volume.
SMCI Support & Resistance Levels: Your Trading Roadmap
Here’s a straightforward trading plan based on the key support and resistance levels:
- ✅ If SMCI holds above $34.86 → The bullish trend could resume, with the next target being $53.01.
- ⚠️ If it breaks below $34.86 → Expect a dip towards $29.51.
- 🛑 A drop below $29.51 → This could trigger a much deeper correction, potentially heading towards the 200-day SMA at $45.91 (which is an interesting dynamic given current price is below this).
SMCI Stock: Buy, Hold, or Sell? A Technical Verdict
Let’s sum up what the technicals are telling us for different types of investors:
- Short-Term Traders: The trend, while showing some positive MACD, has underlying bearishness. Monitor closely for signs of exhaustion. A neutral stance might be the best approach until a clearer signal emerges from the MACD or significant volume changes.
- Long-Term Investors: The long-term uptrend technically remains valid as long as the price holds above the 200-day SMA ($45.91). A pullback to the 50-day SMA ($44.12) area could present a safer buying opportunity, offering a better entry point within the broader trend.
- New Buyers: It might be wise to avoid chasing any rallies right now. Instead, wait for either a confirmed breakout above $53.01 with strong accompanying volume, or patiently await a pullback to the $34.86 area, which would offer a more favorable risk/reward entry point.
Bottom Line: The technical indicators suggest that any short-term rally might be running out of steam. While the long-term trend still holds a bullish bias (relative to its moving averages, despite current price), a correction seems plausible before the next major move. Exercise caution and wait for clear confirmation at these critical key levels.
(Charts for Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and Historical Price & Volume would typically be displayed here to visually represent the analysis.)
SMCI Historical Performance: Recent Price Action & Volume Trends
Let’s take a closer look at SMCI’s recent trading history. In the period from November 14, 2025, to November 28, 2025, SMCI’s stock price experienced a total return of -7.06%. During these recent days, the price fluctuated between a high of $37.35 and a low of $31.03. The average daily trading volume during this two-week span was approximately 28,564,893 shares.
SMCI Recent Trading Data: Daily Price & Volume Snapshot
Here’s a detailed look at the daily trading activity for SMCI over the past couple of weeks:
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | $33.33 | $33.86 | $32.88 | $33.85 | 10,755,800 |
| 2025-11-27 | $33.19 | $33.42 | $32.45 | $32.83 | 21,642,400 |
| 2025-11-26 | $33.19 | $33.42 | $32.45 | $32.83 | 21,642,400 |
| 2025-11-25 | $32.16 | $32.63 | $31.17 | $32.48 | 22,199,800 |
| 2025-11-24 | $32.39 | $33.54 | $31.98 | $33.32 | 27,885,100 |
| 2025-11-23 | $32.14 | $32.57 | $31.03 | $32.19 | 28,321,200 |
| 2025-11-22 | $32.14 | $32.57 | $31.03 | $32.19 | 28,321,200 |
| 2025-11-21 | $32.14 | $32.57 | $31.03 | $32.19 | 28,321,200 |
| 2025-11-20 | $35.53 | $35.54 | $31.45 | $31.56 | 37,801,500 |
| 2025-11-19 | $34.55 | $34.97 | $33.20 | $33.73 | 28,892,800 |
| 2025-11-18 | $34.31 | $35.78 | $33.55 | $34.90 | 28,024,900 |
| 2025-11-17 | $35.58 | $35.82 | $33.64 | $34.10 | 32,689,500 |
| 2025-11-16 | $34.24 | $37.35 | $33.69 | $36.42 | 37,325,200 |
| 2025-11-15 | $34.24 | $37.35 | $33.69 | $36.42 | 37,325,200 |
| 2025-11-14 | $34.24 | $37.35 | $33.69 | $36.42 | 37,325,200 |
SMCI Stock Price Statistics: Volatility, Beta & Moving Averages
When you look at SMCI’s price action over the past year, it’s clear the stock has seen its share of drama. It hit a high of $66.44 and dipped to a low of $25.71. This wide range tells us the stock has been subject to significant fluctuations, likely driven by shifting market sentiment or specific company news. Currently, the 50-day moving average sits at $46.27, which is slightly above the 200-day moving average of $43.75.
This configuration – with the shorter-term average above the longer-term one – often signals a potential short-term pullback or a consolidation phase, especially for technical traders who track momentum and trend direction. The stock also carries a beta of 1.48x, meaning it tends to move more sharply than the broader market; it’s about 48% more volatile. Coupled with a high 30-day annualized volatility of 58.3%, it’s evident that this stock experiences frequent and substantial price swings. For investors, this indicates both the potential for significant gains and a higher degree of downside risk. These indicators are crucial when you’re deciding on position sizing or optimal entry timing, particularly if you’re managing a portfolio that balances stability with growth exposure.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week High | $66.44 |
| 52 Week Low | $25.71 |
| 50 Day MA | $46.27 |
| 200 Day MA | $43.75 |
| Beta | 1.48x |
| Volatility (30d Ann.) | 58.3% |
SMCI Quarterly Earnings Performance: Revenue & Net Income Insights
Let’s unpack SMCI’s recent quarterly performance to understand its operational trajectory. In the latest reported quarter (2025-Q3), the company posted revenue of $5.02 billion and a net income of $168.28 million. This gives us a concrete look at their recent financial output.
Analyzing the growth trends, the quarter-over-quarter revenue change was -12.8%, indicating a recent deceleration in top-line performance. The year-over-year revenue growth also stands at -15.5%, highlighting a continued contraction compared to the same period last year. These figures suggest that SMCI is currently navigating a challenging period for revenue expansion.
SMCI Growth Metrics: Quarter-over-Quarter & Year-over-Year
Here’s a snapshot of SMCI’s recent quarterly results, providing a clearer picture of its financial trends:
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS | Gross Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q3 | $5.02 B | $168.28 M | $0.26x | 9.3% |
| 2025-Q2 | $5.76 B | $195.15 M | 9.5% | |
| 2025-Q1 | $4.60 B | $108.78 M | $0.17x | 9.6% |
| 2024-Q4 | $5.68 B | $320.60 M | $0.51x | 11.8% |
And here are the key growth metrics:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| QoQ Revenue Growth | -12.8% |
| QoQ Net Income Growth | -13.8% |
| YoY Revenue Growth | -15.5% |
SMCI Short Selling Information: Short Interest & Bearish Sentiment
Understanding short interest can provide valuable clues about market sentiment. Currently, there’s $88 million worth of short interest in SMCI, and the short ratio, or days to cover, stands at 2.9x. What does this mean? At the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take approximately three days for all short positions to be covered. This relatively low figure suggests that short sellers don’t currently exert significant control over the stock’s price, and the risk of a prolonged ‘short squeeze’ is relatively low.
However, with 19.46% of the public float sold short, a high percentage of shares are indeed being bet against. This signals significant bearish conviction from a segment of the market. This level has remained relatively stable compared to last month’s figure of 85 million shares short, suggesting a consistent bearish sentiment. With such notable short interest, of potential volatility spikes, which could be triggered by news events that force short sellers to cover their positions, leading to rapid upward price movements.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Short | 88 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 2.90x |
| Short % of Float | 19.46% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | 85 M |
| Short Date | 2025-11-14 |
SMCI Risk Analysis: Volatility, Drawdown & VaR
Investing in SMCI comes with a distinct risk profile. The stock’s annualized volatility stands at a high 57.2%, which clearly indicates a significant level of investment risk due to frequent and substantial price movements. This is a stock that can move sharply, both up and down.
The Sharpe ratio of 0.57x suggests mixed risk-adjusted returns, meaning the returns generated might not be fully compensating for the level of risk taken. Furthermore, a maximum drawdown of -84.84% is a stark reminder of the significant downside risk SMCI has experienced during adverse market conditions.
To quantify potential losses, the Value at Risk (VaR) at a 5% confidence level shows a potential loss of -4.21% in the worst 5% of scenarios. This means that, under normal market conditions, there’s a 5% chance the stock could lose 4.21% or more in a single day. The Sortino ratio of 0.77x, which specifically focuses on downside risk, provides additional insight into its risk-adjusted performance by penalizing only negative volatility. Investors should always consider these detailed risk metrics in conjunction with their own risk tolerance and overarching investment objectives.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Volatility (Annualized) | 57.2% |
| Value at Risk (5%) | -4.21% |
| Value at Risk (1%) | -9.34% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.57x |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.77x |
| Maximum Drawdown | -84.84% |
| Skewness | 0.61x |
| Kurtosis | 24.67x |
SMCI Sentiment Analysis: News, Analyst & Options Market Insights
Current market sentiment surrounding SMCI reveals a cautiously positive outlook, indicated by a composite sentiment score of 0.14x and a confidence level of 51.9%. This overall positive sentiment is derived from a blend of data sources, including recent news coverage, analyst recommendations, and activity in the options market.
Breaking down these components, news analysis shows a positive sentiment score of 0.20x, while the analyst consensus leans neutral at 0.00x. The options market, however, reflects a more positive sentiment at 0.35x, suggesting that options traders might be anticipating some upward movement. This weak, yet positive, sentiment signal should always be considered alongside a thorough fundamental and technical analysis to form a truly comprehensive investment perspective for SMCI.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Sentiment Score | 0.14x |
| Sentiment Classification | Positive |
| Sentiment Confidence | 51.9% |
| News Sentiment | Positive (0.20x) |
| Analyst Sentiment | Neutral (0.00x) |
| Options Sentiment | Positive (0.35x) |
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.33x |
SMCI Peer Comparison: How Super Micro Computer Stacks Up
It’s always insightful to see how a company performs against its direct competitors. SMCI, with its $20.21 billion market cap, currently stands as the smallest among its listed peers: SNDK ($32.72B), PSTG ($29.24B), and HPE ($28.86B). This size difference can impact market influence and resource availability.
When it comes to valuation, SMCI’s P/E ratio of 26.65x represents a moderate valuation, while PSTG (P/E 216.98x) trades at significantly higher multiples, suggesting high growth expectations or a premium. In contrast, SNDK (P/E 11.05x) trades at much lower multiples, often indicative of more mature or slower-growth businesses. Regarding growth, SMCI saw a revenue decline of -15.50%. Meanwhile, SNDK (22.60%) and HPE (18.50%) demonstrated stronger revenue momentum, indicating a challenging period for SMCI’s top-line expansion.
Profitability is another key differentiator: SMCI’s 3.77% net margin shows modest but positive profitability, while SNDK (-22.36%) faces significant losses. PSTG and HPE also show healthy net margins.
In terms of capital efficiency, SMCI’s solid 12.79% ROE demonstrates good performance. Looking at leverage, SMCI’s debt-to-equity ratio of 79.18x suggests moderate leverage, positioned between the lower debt levels of SNDK (16.66x) and PSTG (17.11x) and the higher leverage of HPE (96.97x). Lastly, dividend policies vary significantly across the group. HPE (2.38%) actively rewards shareholders with payouts, whereas SMCI, SNDK, and PSTG currently reinvest all cash back into growth initiatives.
| Metric | SMCI | SNDK | PSTG | HPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $20.21B | $32.72B | $29.24B | $28.86B |
| P/E Ratio | 26.65 | 11.05 | 216.98 | 25.73 |
| Revenue Growth | -15.50% | 22.60% | 12.70% | 18.50% |
| Net Margin | 3.77% | -22.36% | 4.16% | 3.77% |
| EPS | 1.27 | -12.03 | 0.41 | 0.85 |
| ROE | 12.79% | -16.18% | 10.04% | 5.36% |
| Debt-to-Equity | 79.18 | 16.66 | 17.11 | 96.97 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.38% |
| 52-Week Range | 25.71 – 66.44 | 27.89 – 284.76 | 34.51 – 100.59 | 11.82 – 26.44 |
SMCI Insider Transactions: Buys, Sells & Ownership Changes
Insider transaction data offers a fascinating glimpse into how those closest to the company are behaving with their own stock. Over the last three months, SMCI’s insider activity shows a mixed pattern, with 25 buys and 47 sells, suggesting a relatively balanced insider sentiment overall. However, when we focus purely on discretionary open-market activity, there were 4 market sales compared to 0 market purchases, indicating that insiders are actively reducing their direct holdings.
Additionally, there were 50 option exercises. These exercises can be interpreted in two ways: either insiders are confident in future price appreciation and converting options to shares, or it’s simply part of routine portfolio management and compensation. Price analysis shows that sales generally occurred at elevated levels, averaging $42.89 across 22 priced transactions, while purchases averaged $7.13 across 7 transactions. This suggests strategic profit-taking by insiders.
In the near term, recent market transactions lean towards selling, with insiders continuing to reduce their positions. While this selling activity is notable, its modest scale suggests it’s more likely routine profit-taking or tax-related selling rather than a fundamental concern about the company’s long-term prospects. For detailed filings, you can always refer to the SEC’s website.
| Insider Name | Type | Shares Changed | Price | Shares After | Transaction Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAO GEORGE | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -8,154 | ~$33.32 | 24,475 | 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-26 |
| KAO GEORGE | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -48,750 | ~$33.32 | 16,250 | 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-26 |
| KAO GEORGE | SELL (Sale) [S] | -56,904 | $32.83 | 134,691 | 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-26 |
| KAO GEORGE | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +8,154 | $24.52 | 191,595 | 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-26 |
| KAO GEORGE | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +48,750 | $7.66 | 183,441 | 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-26 |
| KAO GEORGE | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +80,000 | $2.69 | 134,691 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-17 |
| KAO GEORGE | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +12,100 | $2.37 | 54,691 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-17 |
| KAO GEORGE | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +15,600 | $2.04 | 42,591 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-17 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -3,394 | ~$40.19 | 10,185 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -4,380 | ~$40.19 | 17,500 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -4,370 | ~$40.19 | 13,130 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -1,724 | $40.19 | 86,398 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +3,394 | ~$40.19 | 88,122 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -2,225 | $40.19 | 84,728 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +4,380 | ~$40.19 | 86,953 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -2,220 | $40.19 | 82,573 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +4,370 | ~$40.19 | 84,793 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -1,490 | ~$40.19 | 14,860 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -2,680 | ~$40.19 | 5,350 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -757 | $40.19 | 108,638 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +1,490 | ~$40.19 | 109,395 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -1,361 | $40.19 | 107,905 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +2,680 | ~$40.19 | 109,266 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| KAO GEORGE | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -3,670 | ~$40.19 | 11,013 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| KAO GEORGE | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -1,840 | ~$40.19 | 7,330 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| KAO GEORGE | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -1,864 | $40.19 | 26,991 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| KAO GEORGE | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +3,670 | ~$40.19 | 28,855 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| KAO GEORGE | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -935 | $40.19 | 25,185 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| KAO GEORGE | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +1,840 | ~$40.19 | 26,120 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| CLEGG DON W | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -1,290 | ~$40.19 | 12,880 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| CLEGG DON W | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -1,020 | ~$40.19 | 2,040 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| CLEGG DON W | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -656 | $40.19 | 46,668 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| CLEGG DON W | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +1,290 | ~$40.19 | 47,324 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| CLEGG DON W | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -518 | $40.19 | 46,034 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| CLEGG DON W | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +1,020 | ~$40.19 | 46,552 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Cheung Kenneth | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -1,250 | ~$40.19 | 8,750 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Cheung Kenneth | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -635 | $40.19 | 56,472 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Cheung Kenneth | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +1,250 | ~$40.19 | 57,107 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liang Charles | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -2,110 | ~$40.19 | 12,680 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liang Charles | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -1,137 | $40.19 | 607,399 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liang Charles | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +2,110 | ~$40.19 | 608,536 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -2,110 | ~$40.19 | 12,680 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -1,137 | $40.19 | 607,399 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +2,110 | ~$40.19 | 608,536 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -6,602 | $50.37 | 106,586 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +13,000 | ~$50.37 | 113,188 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| KAO GEORGE | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -2,540 | $50.37 | 24,280 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| KAO GEORGE | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +5,000 | ~$50.37 | 26,820 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| CLEGG DON W | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -3,047 | $50.37 | 45,532 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| CLEGG DON W | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +6,000 | ~$50.37 | 48,579 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| Liang Charles | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -3,231 | $50.37 | 606,426 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| Liang Charles | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +6,000 | ~$50.37 | 609,657 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -3,231 | $50.37 | 606,426 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +6,000 | ~$50.37 | 609,657 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | SELL (Tax Payment) [F] | -2,540 | $50.37 | 80,423 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| Liaw Yih-Shyan Wally | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +5,000 | ~$50.37 | 82,963 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -25,000 | ~$45.38 | 25,000 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | SELL (Sale) [S] | -25,000 | $45.14 | 100,188 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +25,000 | $5.30 | 125,188 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | SELL (Exercise) [M] | -25,000 | ~$40.10 | 50,000 | 2025-09-03 | 2025-09-05 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | SELL (Sale) [S] | -300 | $40.85 | 100,188 | 2025-09-03 | 2025-09-05 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | SELL (Sale) [S] | -24,700 | $40.28 | 100,488 | 2025-09-03 | 2025-09-05 |
| WEIGAND DAVID E | BUY (Exercise) [M] | +25,000 | $5.30 | 125,188 | 2025-09-03 | 2025-09-05 |
SMCI Stock Risk Factors: What Investors Should Monitor
Investing in SMCI, like any equity, comes with inherent risks. This section highlights several potential factors identified through both our data analysis and general market considerations. This list is not exhaustive, but it covers key areas to monitor.
- ⚠️ Overall technical sentiment for SMCI is Strong Bearish, suggesting a need for significant caution among investors.
- ⚠️ The current price of $33.85 is trading below the 50-Day SMA ($44.12), indicating potential short-term weakness and a lack of positive momentum.
- ⚠️ The price of $33.85 is also below the 200-Day SMA ($45.91), signaling potential long-term weakness and a bearish trend.
- ⚠️ The negative year-over-year revenue growth of -15.50% poses a significant risk to future performance and suggests challenges in top-line expansion.
- ⚠️ A negative year-over-year earnings growth of -61.60% raises concerns about the company’s profitability trends and its ability to deliver consistent earnings.
- ⚠️ General market fluctuations and broader economic conditions can significantly impact stocks within the Technology sector, adding an external layer of risk.
SMCI Analyst Insights: Wall Street Consensus & Price Targets
Let’s turn our attention to what Wall Street analysts are saying about SMCI. The current average recommendation is a ‘Hold,’ reflecting a cautious but not overtly negative stance. This consensus view is based on the opinions of 17 analysts who have contributed their insights.
The analysts’ price targets average out to $48.53, with a wide range spanning from a low of $15.00 to a high of $93.00. This broad range highlights the differing opinions and uncertainties surrounding SMCI’s future trajectory. However, the average target of $48.53 suggests a potential upside of approximately 43.4% compared to the current price of $33.85. This potential upside reflects the overall analyst sentiment on the stock’s future outlook, despite the ‘Hold’ recommendation.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | Hold |
| Mean Target Price | $48.53 |
| High Target Price | $93.00 |
| Low Target Price | $15.00 |
| Number of Analyst Opinions | 17 |
SMCI Latest News & Developments: Key Headlines Impacting the Stock
Staying current with the news is paramount in the fast-moving world of stock markets. Here are some of the most recent headlines concerning Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), published within the last few days, which could be influencing investor sentiment and price action:
- Top Growth Companies With Strong Insider Ownership November 2025
Publisher: Simply Wall St.
Published: 2025-11-28T17:35:50Z - These Were the S&P 500’s Best and Worst Stocks in November
Publisher: Barrons.com
Published: 2025-11-28T16:21:00Z - Top Growth Companies With Strong Insider Confidence November 2025
Publisher: Simply Wall St.
Published: 2025-11-28T11:35:34Z - Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financials Look Strong: Should Prospective Shareholders Make The Leap?
Publisher: Simply Wall St.
Published: 2025-11-27T17:31:08Z - SMCI Aims for $36B in FY26 Revenues: Is the Growth Target Realistic?
Publisher: Zacks
Published: 2025-11-27T15:06:00Z
These recent articles highlight a mix of investor interest in growth, market performance comparisons, and analyses of the company’s financial health and ambitious revenue targets. Monitoring these and other financial news outlets like MarketWatch can help investors track how evolving narratives impact SMCI.
SMCI Stock Conclusion & Investment Outlook
Alright, let’s bring all these pieces together for a cohesive view of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI). We’ve covered a lot of ground, from technical indicators to fundamental health and analyst sentiment.
SMCI Short-Term Technical Snapshot
- ▼ Overall Technical Sentiment: Strong Bearish
- ▼ Price Trend vs MAs: Bearish (below SMA50/200)
- ● Momentum (RSI): Neutral (37.7)
- 📊 Support / Resistance (30d): ~$31.03 / ~$53.01
In the short term, the technical picture for SMCI is clearly bearish. The stock is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling weakness. While the RSI is neutral, indicating no immediate overbought or oversold conditions, the overall trend suggests caution. Key support and resistance levels will be critical to watch for any shifts.
SMCI Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook
- ▼ 1-Year Avg. Forecast: ~-39.4% avg. change to ≈$20.50
- ● Fundamental Health: Assessment Incomplete (ROE: 12.79%, D/E: 0.79x)
- ➕ Valuation Snapshot: Potentially Attractive (Fwd P/E: 7.98x)
- ➖ Recent Growth (YoY): Negative (Rev: -15.50%, Earn: -61.60%)
- ● Analyst Consensus: Hold (Target: $48.53)
Looking at the longer term, the 1-year forecast model suggests a significant potential downside, targeting approximately $20.50. However, the fundamental health, while showing a decent ROE and manageable debt, has been impacted by negative year-over-year revenue and earnings growth. The forward P/E of 7.98x does make the valuation look potentially attractive, but this is tempered by the mixed analyst consensus of ‘Hold’ and a wide range of price targets.
Overall SMCI Assessment & Investment Outlook
Synthesizing both the short-term technical signals and the longer-term fundamental outlook, SMCI currently exhibits a Strong Bearish technical sentiment, coupled with what we’ve assessed as moderate fundamental health. From a valuation standpoint, it appears potentially attractive, especially when looking at its Forward P/E. However, the 1-year forecast model points to a potential downside, suggesting a bumpy road ahead.
For investors, decision-making should carefully weigh these elements against the various risk factors we outlined earlier, such as high volatility, declining growth rates, and significant short interest. Aligning these insights with your personal investment strategy and risk tolerance is absolutely crucial before making any moves.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about SMCI Stock
What is the SMCI stock price prediction for the next year (2025-2026)?
Based on current models, the average 1-year price forecast for SMCI is approximately $20.50. This represents a potential -39.4% change from the recent price of $33.85. Please remember, this is a model-driven estimate, not a guarantee, and actual prices will fluctuate significantly based on numerous market and company-specific factors.
Will SMCI stock go up or down?
The 1-year forecast model suggests the price might experience sharp losses on average (-39.4% potential). However, the short-term direction is highly uncertain and heavily influenced by prevailing market sentiment (currently ‘Strong Bearish’), breaking news, and overall economic conditions. Technical indicators provide clues for near-term direction, but no outcome is guaranteed.
Is SMCI stock a good investment right now?
Determining if SMCI is a ‘good buy’ requires evaluating multiple factors. Technical sentiment is ‘Strong Bearish,’ while the 1-year forecast suggests a -39.4% potential downside. Technically, the RSI indicates neutral conditions (RSI: 37.7), pointing to balanced momentum. You should consider the valuation, financial health, and growth prospects.
However, note that several potentially significant risk factors specific to SMCI were identified in our analysis. Align these factors with your personal investment strategy and risk tolerance.
How volatile is SMCI stock?
Based on the recent 30-day price action, SMCI’s annualized volatility is approximately 58.3%. This level is currently considered high, indicating a significant degree of recent price fluctuation. This aligns with its Beta of 1.48x, suggesting it moves more sharply than the broader market. Higher volatility means larger potential price swings, both up and down.
What is SMCI’s P/E ratio and what does it mean?
SMCI’s Trailing P/E ratio (based on past earnings) is 26.65x, which is considered relatively high, implying the market expects strong growth or potential overvaluation. The Forward P/E (based on expected earnings) is 7.98x. A P/E ratio indicates how much investors are paying per dollar of earnings. It’s crucial to compare this to industry peers and historical levels. A high P/E isn’t necessarily bad if strong growth prospects justify it.
What does SMCI’s liquidity position reveal about its financial health?
SMCI’s financial health includes a strong Current Ratio of 5.39x, suggesting it can comfortably cover its short-term liabilities. Additionally, its robust operating cash flow of $333.10 million provides a significant buffer and is a critical factor in its ability to fund operations and manage debt effectively.
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