Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Analysis: Fundamentals, Recent News, & Peer Comparison

RIVN Stock Analysis: Deep Dive into Rivian Automotive, Inc. for Savvy Investors

Hey there, fellow investor! Are you looking at Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) and wondering if this electric vehicle innovator is a smart move for your portfolio right now? It’s a question many are asking, especially with the dynamic shifts in the automotive industry. As a $20.67 billion company operating in the competitive Auto Manufacturers sector, RIVN presents a fascinating, albeit complex, investment case.

My goal here is to cut through the noise and provide you with a clear, actionable analysis. We’ll explore whether RIVN’s current stock price truly reflects its value and if the company is geared up for sustainable growth in the future. So, let’s dive into the data and see what Rivian’s performance in the current market truly reveals.

Here’s What You Need to Know Right Now About RIVN

As of late November 2025, RIVN’s stock is currently trading at $16.86. What’s immediately striking is its positive momentum, with the stock holding above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which often signals a healthy uptrend.

However, Wall Street analysts are showing a degree of caution. The consensus 1-year price target sits at $14.83, suggesting a potential -12.0% downside from today’s price. It’s also worth noting the significant volatility, pegged at an 89.5% annualized rate, which tells us to expect some wild swings in its price action.

Looking at Rivian’s fundamentals, it’s a mixed bag. On the upside, the company is demonstrating robust revenue growth, up an impressive 78.30% year-over-year. Yet, it’s also grappling with intense competition in the rapidly evolving EV market. It’s a classic growth-versus-profitability story.

What’s Inside This Comprehensive RIVN Analysis?

I’m not just going to throw numbers at you; we’re going to break down RIVN’s stock from every crucial angle. This way, you’ll have all the insights needed to make a truly informed investment decision. Here’s what we’ll cover:

• Is now a good time to buy RIVN? Technically, things look neutral, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling overbought conditions at 80.3. Fundamentally, caution is advised due to current debt levels and the need for sustained growth metrics.
• Can Rivian’s core operations fuel future growth? The company’s future hinges heavily on its performance within the Auto Manufacturers industry and its ability to effectively manage competitive pressures.
• What are the biggest risks for RIVN investors? Rivian carries a substantial $5.20 billion in debt, which could become a significant headwind, especially in a high-interest-rate environment. Moreover, the competition is fierce, with both established automotive giants and new EV players vying for market share.

Forget the jargon-filled reports or the overly simplistic “just buy” advice. My aim is to provide clear, digestible information that benefits you, whether your strategy involves long-term accumulation or seeking quicker profits. So, is Rivian Automotive, Inc. the right investment to accelerate your financial journey, or are there hidden potholes to be wary of? Let’s dig into the details.

Key RIVN Metrics and Latest Forecast Summary

Let’s start with a snapshot of Rivian’s current standing and what the immediate future might hold. The stock’s dynamic nature is evident in these numbers.

Metric	Value	Insight
Current Price	$16.86	Live Market Price (as of Nov 2025)
1-Month Forecast	$16.86	+0.0% potential change
1-Year Forecast	$13.46	-20.1% potential downside
Analyst Mean Target	$14.83	-12.0% potential downside
Trend	Bullish	Price > SMA 50/200
RSI (14-day)	80.3	Overbought 🔥
MACD	0.09	Neutral Trend
Above SMA 50	$14.30	✅ Strong support level
Above SMA 200	$13.90	✅ Long-term bullish signal
52-Week Range	$10.36 – $18.13	Current price near the higher end
Volatility (30d Ann.)	89.5%	🌪️ High price swings expected
Beta (vs. Market)	1.82x	🎢 High sensitivity to market movements
Green Days (30d)	18/30 (60%)	🟢 More up days than down days recently
Institutional Ownership	45.74%	🏢 Significant institutional backing
Short % of Float	14.93%	😰 Notable bearish bets

Right now, RIVN’s stock is trading at $16.86. Technically, we’re seeing a bullish pattern because the price has consistently held above both its 50-day ($14.30) and 200-day ($13.90) moving averages. This indicates the stock has been gaining momentum recently, which is a positive sign for short-term traders.

However, there’s a flashing yellow light: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 80.3 is clearly in overbought territory. This often suggests that a stock’s price has risen too quickly and might be due for a pullback or consolidation before its next upward move. While the MACD indicator shows a neutral trend (0.09), the overbought RSI warrants caution.

Over the past year, RIVN’s stock has traded within a range of $10.36 to $18.13. This tells us two key things: first, the stock has made a significant recovery from its lower points; and second, the current price is nearing the higher end of this range, implying that drastic upward swings might be less probable unless a major catalyst emerges. Analysts, on average, expect a modest decline, with a 1-year target of $13.46 (-20.1%) and a consensus target of $14.83 (-12.0%). Furthermore, with 45.74% institutional ownership and a notable 14.93% short interest, it appears a segment of the market is betting on a price decline, which could add to future volatility.

RIVN Stock Price Forecast & Detailed Outlook

While no one has a crystal ball, forecasting models can offer valuable insights into potential future price movements. The chart below would typically illustrate recent average prices alongside a forecasted range, giving us a visual perspective on RIVN’s trajectory.

Over the next year, from November 2025 to November 2026, the model projects RIVN’s price to fluctuate significantly, ranging approximately between $3.16 and $24.66. This wide range highlights the inherent uncertainties in forecasting for a growth-oriented, volatile stock like Rivian. The projected price range remains relatively consistent across periods, implying a stable level of forecast uncertainty rather than increasing unpredictability.

Let’s break down the month-by-month forecast. This table provides projected price bands, the potential Return on Investment (ROI) against the current price of $16.86, and the resulting model signal for each period.

Month (Period)	Min. Price	Avg. Price	Max. Price	Potential ROI vs Current ($16.86)	Model Signal
2025-11	$16.86	$16.86	$16.86	0.0%	Hold/Neutral
2025-12	$11.69	$14.53	$18.22	-13.8%	Consider Short
2026-01	$10.92	$14.09	$17.16	-16.4%	Consider Short
2026-02	$8.24	$12.04	$15.62	-28.6%	Consider Short
2026-03	$7.98	$10.96	$14.14	-35.0%	Consider Short
2026-04	$7.54	$10.68	$13.90	-36.7%	Consider Short
2026-05	$5.70	$9.76	$14.40	-42.1%	Consider Short
2026-06	$4.83	$10.77	$15.96	-36.1%	Consider Short
2026-07	$6.60	$12.71	$20.77	-24.6%	Consider Short
2026-08	$6.56	$14.41	$23.03	-14.5%	Consider Short
2026-09	$5.95	$14.19	$23.99	-15.8%	Consider Short
2026-10	$4.45	$13.46	$24.66	-20.1%	Consider Short
2026-11	$3.16	$13.12	$24.50	-22.2%	Consider Short

It’s important to remember that these forecasts are model-based estimates. They are inherently uncertain and can change rapidly based on evolving data, market sentiment, and broader economic conditions. They don’t guarantee future prices, but they do offer a perspective on potential trajectories.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Company Profile

Let’s get a clearer picture of Rivian Automotive, Inc. beyond just its stock price. Understanding the company’s core business, its market position, and its operational footprint is crucial for any investor.

Metric	Value
Sector	Consumer Cyclical
Industry	Auto Manufacturers
Market Cap	$20.67 B
Employees	14,861
Website	https://www.rivian.com

Rivian Automotive, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, is at the forefront of designing, developing, manufacturing, and selling electric vehicles and their associated accessories. Headquartered in Irvine, California, and founded in 2009, Rivian has quickly made a name for itself in the competitive EV space.

The company’s offerings include popular consumer vehicles like the two-row, five-passenger pickup truck under the R1T brand, and the three-row, seven-passenger sport utility vehicle known as the R1S. Beyond just vehicles, Rivian provides a comprehensive ecosystem of software and services. This includes vehicle remarketing, essential repair and maintenance services, and advanced vehicle electrical architecture and software development. For a deeper dive into their offerings, check out their official investor relations page.

Rivian is also building out its charging infrastructure with the Rivian Adventure Network Direct Current fast chargers and offers access to the Combined Charging Standard. Furthermore, they’ve developed FleetOS, a proprietary, end-to-end centralized fleet management subscription platform, and collaborate with Amazon.com, Inc. on their Electric Delivery Van platform. The company’s direct-to-consumer sales model is a key differentiator in both the consumer and commercial markets.

RIVN Total Valuation & Market Positioning

When we talk about a company’s valuation, we’re trying to understand what the market believes Rivian is worth. It’s not just about the stock price; it involves a deeper look into its financial structure.

While Rivian Automotive, Inc. boasts a market capitalization of $20.67 billion, its enterprise value (EV) comes in lower at $18.78 billion. This difference is actually a positive sign, reflecting a robust net cash position of approximately $1.89 billion. This financial strength provides Rivian with a valuable cushion and flexibility for future investments and strategic growth initiatives.

The valuation ratios for RIVN tell an interesting story. Trading at 3.22x revenue (TTM) and -7.20x EBITDA (TTM), Rivian’s valuation reflects its market position as a growing player in a high-potential industry. While the negative EBITDA multiple is common for high-growth, pre-profitability companies, the revenue multiple suggests the market is pricing in significant future growth. Essentially, investors are paying for the company’s strong brand assets and market potential, which means the stock might have less room for error if growth expectations aren’t met.

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$20.67 B
Enterprise Value	$18.78 B
EV/Revenue (TTM)	3.22x
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	-7.20x

RIVN Share Statistics & Ownership Insights

Understanding who owns Rivian’s shares and how they’re distributed can offer critical insights into the company’s stability and potential for price movements. Let’s break down the ownership structure.

About 19.4% of Rivian Automotive’s shares are closely held by insiders or strategic investors. This means the remaining 806 million shares are available for public trading, which is often referred to as the “float.” A high float generally allows investors to trade the stock without causing significant, sudden price shifts. However, it’s also a reminder that the company could issue more shares in the future, potentially diluting the value of existing stock.

It’s noteworthy that executives and major shareholders collectively own a significant 34.10% stake in the company. This level of insider ownership is often seen as a positive, as it helps align the interests of management with those of public shareholders. Furthermore, institutional ownership is quite healthy at 45.74%, which typically provides a degree of stability and confidence in the stock, as large institutions tend to do extensive due diligence.

Metric	Value
Shares Outstanding	1 B
Implied Shares Outstanding	1 B
Shares Float	806 M
Insider Ownership	34.10%
Institutional Ownership	45.74%
Shares Short	158 M
Short Ratio (Days To Cover)	2.90x
Short % of Float	14.93%
Shares Short (Prior Month)	162 M
Short Date	2025-11-14

Now, let’s consider the impact of short interest. With 158 million shares currently shorted, representing 14.93% of the float, it suggests that a notable portion of the market is betting against the stock. This indicates a high perceived risk by some investors. Keeping an eye on changes in short interest is crucial, as a sharp increase might signal growing doubt among bearish investors. Conversely, very low short interest during positive news could prevent a powerful ‘short squeeze.’ You can track more detailed short interest data on platforms like Yahoo Finance RIVN page.

Key RIVN Valuation Metrics Explained

Valuation metrics are crucial for understanding how the market perceives Rivian’s worth relative to its financial performance. These ratios help us compare RIVN to its peers and assess whether it might be over or undervalued.

Rivian’s valuation presents some unique dynamics. The company’s Forward P/E ratio stands at -6.15x. For growth companies like Rivian that are still in early stages of profitability, negative P/E ratios are not uncommon as they reinvest heavily in expansion. This requires investors to look beyond traditional earnings metrics and focus on future growth potential.

Meanwhile, its Price/Sales ratio of $3.54 and Price/Book ratio of $4.08 show that the company trades at multiples that warrant attention. These metrics offer insight into how the market values Rivian’s sales and assets, reflecting its position in the rapidly expanding, yet capital-intensive, EV market.

Metric	Value
Forward P/E	-6.15x
Price/Sales (TTM)	$3.54
Price/Book (MRQ)	$4.08
EV/Revenue (TTM)	3.22x
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	-7.20x

From an enterprise value perspective, the EV/Revenue ratio of 3.22x indicates a reasonable revenue-based valuation for a growth company. The EV/EBITDA multiple of -7.20x further emphasizes the company’s current stage where profitability, in terms of EBITDA, is still developing. These comprehensive valuation metrics provide a multi-faceted view of Rivian’s current market positioning and investor expectations.

RIVN Financial Health & Liquidity Analysis

A company’s financial health is the bedrock of its long-term viability. For Rivian, the financial data reveals both significant strengths and areas that require careful monitoring.

Rivian’s Return on Equity (ROE) of -64.92% and Return on Assets (ROA) of -14.47% clearly reflect that the company is not yet efficient with its capital. These negative figures are typical for high-growth companies that are heavily investing in scaling operations and product development, rather than established, stable firms focused on maximizing returns on existing assets.

The Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02x, with $5.20 billion in total debt and $7.09 billion in cash, suggests that RIVN has taken on a manageable debt load to fuel its ambitious growth plans. Despite this debt, the company’s ability to generate $1.08 billion in operating cash flow (TTM) proves that its core business can steadily produce cash, which is a significant strength and crucial for funding its operations and future investments.

Metric	Value
Return on Equity (ROE TTM)	-64.92%
Return on Assets (ROA TTM)	-14.47%
Debt/Equity (MRQ)	1.02x
Total Cash (MRQ)	$7.09 B
Total Debt (MRQ)	$5.20 B
Current Ratio (MRQ)	2.71x
Quick Ratio (MRQ)	2.13x
Operating Cash Flow (TTM)	$1.08 B
Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM)	$4.00 M

Furthermore, the Current Ratio of 2.71x and Quick Ratio of 2.13x indicate a solid liquidity position. This means Rivian is well-equipped to cover its short-term liabilities, a reassuring sign for financial stability. Additionally, $4.00 million in levered free cash flow suggests that even after meeting its financial obligations, the company can still generate significant cash for shareholders, further reinforcing its ability to invest in growth.

RIVN Financial Efficiency: Asset & Capital Utilization

Financial efficiency metrics show us how well Rivian is using its assets and capital to generate revenue and profits. These are crucial indicators for any manufacturing business, especially one scaling rapidly.

Rivian Automotive’s Asset Turnover of 0.38x suggests that it generates $0.38 in revenue for every dollar of assets. This indicates a lower efficiency in asset utilization, which is common for companies in heavy manufacturing that require substantial capital investment. Improvement in this area could significantly boost profitability.

The Inventory Turnover of 2.74x shows that Rivian sells and replaces its inventory roughly 2.7 times annually, which translates to approximately 133.2 Days Inventory Outstanding. This pace might indicate slow-moving inventory or a need to optimize supply chain management. In contrast, its Receivables Turnover of 13.17x and 27.7 Days Sales Outstanding reflect excellent collections, meaning customers pay very quickly – a strong positive for cash flow.

Metric	Value
Asset Turnover (TTM)	0.38x
Inventory Turnover (TTM)	2.74x
Receivables Turnover (TTM)	13.17x
Working Capital Turnover (TTM)	0.70x
Current Ratio (MRQ)	2.71x
Days Sales Outstanding	27.7
Days Inventory Outstanding	133.2
Cash Conversion Cycle	~160.9 days (partial)
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC TTM)	-32.54%

The Working Capital Turnover of 0.70x indicates moderate use of short-term assets to support sales, which is supported by a Current Ratio of 2.71x, signaling excellent liquidity. However, the Cash Conversion Cycle of approximately 160.9 days (partial) suggests it takes about 5.4 months to convert inventory and receivables into cash. This extended cycle can strain working capital and needs close attention. Rivian Automotive’s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -32.54% also points to lower capital efficiency. Overall, Rivian may need to focus on higher asset utilization and tighter inventory management to boost profitability further. Investors should compare these figures with industry peers to fully assess its competitive positioning.

RIVN Profitability and Growth Trajectory

For a high-growth company like Rivian, profitability and growth metrics are often a delicate balancing act. Let’s analyze how RIVN is performing in these critical areas.

An analysis of RIVN’s margin performance indicates the company is facing significant pressure on its bottom line. While the gross margin of 3.33% shows some success in controlling production costs, the operating margin of -63.09% and an EBITDA margin of -44.76% reflect substantial operating expenses as the company scales. These negative margins mean that for every dollar of revenue, RIVN is currently losing money after accounting for operational costs, even before financing and taxes.

Over the last twelve months, RIVN has retained approximately $-61.340 in net profit for every dollar of its revenue. This negative profit margin underscores the company’s current focus on aggressive growth and market capture over short-term profitability. While the business’s revenue is increasing at an aggressive rate of 78.30% year-over-year, investors should closely monitor whether this rapid pace can be sustained without further eroding profit margins.

Metric	Value
Profit Margin (TTM)	-61.34%
Operating Margin (TTM)	-63.09%
Gross Margin (TTM)	3.33%
EBITDA Margin (TTM)	-44.76%
Revenue (TTM)	$5.83 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY)	78.30%
Gross Profit (TTM)	$194.00 M
EBITDA (TTM)	-2.61 B
Net Income (TTM)	-3.58 B

Rivian’s $-2.61 billion in EBITDA and $194.00 million in gross profit highlight its raw earning power before significant operational costs. However, the $-3.58 billion in net income reveals the substantial gap in converting that power into bottom-line results. This financial profile clearly suggests a company hyper-focused on aggressive growth and market share, even at the expense of short-term profitability. Despite healthy gross margins, the significant difference between its gross and net margins (3.33% vs. -61.34%) points to high operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes as key areas for investors to watch. Moving forward, maintaining steady or improving margins will be critical. RIVN needs to defend its pricing power and rigorously control operating costs, which will be essential for sustaining profitability, especially if revenue growth eventually moderates.

RIVN Dividends and Shareholder Returns

For many investors, a company’s dividend policy is a key consideration for total shareholder returns. Let’s look at Rivian’s approach.

Dividend Summary & Investor Implications for RIVN

Based on the latest available data, Rivian (RIVN) does not currently pay a regular dividend. This decision typically signals that the company is prioritizing reinvesting its earnings and cash flow back into the business. For a high-growth company like Rivian, which is still scaling its operations and investing heavily in product development, manufacturing, and charging infrastructure, retaining capital for growth is a common strategy.

This approach means that any returns for RIVN shareholders currently come primarily from stock price appreciation rather than recurring income.

Metric	Value
Payout Ratio	0.00%
Trailing Dividend Yield	0.00%

Investors seeking income from their portfolios might find RIVN less appealing than dividend-paying stocks. However, those focused on long-term capital growth and who believe in Rivian’s ability to capture significant market share in the EV space might view this reinvestment strategy as a positive, fostering future value creation.

RIVN Technical Analysis: Current Price & Trend Outlook

Let’s shift our focus to the charts and technical indicators. As of late November 2025, RIVN is trading at $16.86, showing a bullish trend but with clear signs of being overheated. The stock has enjoyed a notable run, gaining +2.87% in just the last 15 days. However, several technical signals suggest we should approach this momentum with caution.

Trend Strength – Is RIVN Still Bullish?

Rivian (RIVN) is currently trading above its key moving averages, which strongly confirms that the underlying uptrend remains intact. Specifically, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $15.63 is acting as immediate dynamic support, indicating robust short-term strength.

What does this mean for traders? As long as RIVN holds above the 20-day SMA ($15.63), the bullish momentum could very well continue. However, a rapid rise, like the one we’ve seen, can push the stock far from its averages, inherently increasing the risk of a swift pullback as it seeks to normalize.

Momentum Check – Is RIVN Overheated?

This is where caution becomes paramount. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing a strong overbought signal at 80.3. Historically, when the RSI crosses above the 70-75 threshold, we often see the stock take a breather or experience a pullback before it can resume its upward trajectory. At the same time, the MACD histogram remains positive, confirming that the upward momentum is still present, albeit potentially stretched.

For your trading strategy, aggressive traders might consider taking partial profits to de-risk their positions. Conservative traders, on the other hand, would be wise to wait for the RSI to cool down below 70 before considering any new long positions.

Bollinger Bands – RIVN Testing Key Levels

Looking at the Bollinger Bands, RIVN is trading comfortably in the upper half (between the 20-day SMA and the upper band). This is generally a sign of underlying strength, indicating that buyers are in control and pushing the price towards the upper range of its recent volatility.

Volume Trends – What’s Driving RIVN’s Price Action?

While the stock price has been on the rise, a crucial piece of the puzzle is the trading volume. Unfortunately, trading volume has been declining and is currently below its 20-day average. This is a significant red flag for the sustainability of the current trend.

What’s the concern? Low volume rallies are often prone to sharp reversals because they suggest a lack of broad conviction among market participants. If we don’t see a surge in buying interest to confirm the move higher, a pullback becomes increasingly likely. For a more detailed look, you can always check RIVN’s volume data on MarketWatch.

Support & Resistance – Your RIVN Trading Plan

Understanding key support and resistance levels is fundamental to navigating RIVN’s price action.

• Resistance: The immediate resistance level to watch is $18.13, representing the recent high. A decisive breakout above this level, especially with strong volume, could propel RIVN even higher.
• Support: The first line of support is the 20-day SMA at $15.63. If this level breaks, we should expect a test of $13.67.

Here’s a potential trading plan to consider:

• ✅ If RIVN holds above $15.63: The bullish trend is likely to continue, with the next target at $18.13.
• ⚠️ If it breaks below $15.63: Expect a dip towards $13.67.
• 🛑 A drop below $13.67: This could trigger a deeper correction, potentially testing the 200-day SMA around $13.90.

Final Verdict: Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell RIVN?

The technical picture for RIVN is a bit of a tightrope walk right now. While the long-term trend still appears bullish, the short-term indicators suggest we’re due for some caution.

Short-Term Traders:

Be particularly careful here. The RSI is overbought at 80.3, and the weakening volume is a concern. You might consider locking in partial profits as RIVN approaches $18.13 and then waiting for a more favorable entry point, perhaps near the 20-day SMA at $15.63.

Long-Term Investors:

The long-term uptrend remains valid as long as the price holds above the crucial 200-day SMA ($13.90). A pullback to the 50-day SMA ($14.30) area could actually present a safer buying opportunity for those looking to build a long-term position.

New Buyers:

I’d advise against chasing this rally at current levels. It’s often best to wait for either a confirmed breakout above $18.13 with genuinely strong volume, or patiently wait for a pullback to the $15.63 area. Such a dip would offer a much better risk/reward entry point.

Bottom line: The technicals suggest that the current rally in RIVN might be running out of steam in the short term. While the broader trend is still bullish, a healthy correction seems plausible before the next significant move. Trade carefully, monitor these key levels, and always wait for confirmation.

RIVN Historical Price Performance & Trading Data

Understanding a stock’s past performance is crucial for grasping its current context. Let’s examine Rivian’s recent trading history and broader price statistics.

Analyzing the last 15 trading days, from November 14, 2025, to November 28, 2025, RIVN’s stock posted a notable return of +11.58%. During this period, the stock traded within a range of $13.95 to $17.06, with an average daily volume of 44,006,447 shares. This recent surge aligns with the bullish sentiment we’ve observed, but as always, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Recent RIVN Trading Data (Last 15 Days)

Here’s a detailed look at RIVN’s daily trading activity over the specified period:

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume
2025-11-28	$16.39	$17.06	$16.26	$16.86	18,543,000
2025-11-27	$15.61	$16.48	$15.51	$16.18	35,451,200
2025-11-26	$15.61	$16.48	$15.51	$16.18	35,451,200
2025-11-25	$15.11	$15.66	$14.90	$15.56	30,087,700
2025-11-24	$15.03	$15.25	$14.68	$15.17	42,345,100
2025-11-23	$14.73	$15.12	$13.95	$14.86	40,498,600
2025-11-22	$14.73	$15.12	$13.95	$14.86	40,498,600
2025-11-21	$14.73	$15.12	$13.95	$14.86	40,498,600
2025-11-20	$14.94	$15.63	$14.59	$14.66	45,539,400
2025-11-19	$14.83	$14.93	$14.33	$14.72	51,911,000
2025-11-18	$14.68	$15.33	$14.40	$14.99	40,761,500
2025-11-17	$15.01	$15.24	$14.53	$14.87	58,303,200
2025-11-16	$15.70	$15.87	$15.07	$15.11	60,069,200
2025-11-15	$15.70	$15.87	$15.07	$15.11	60,069,200
2025-11-14	$15.70	$15.87	$15.07	$15.11	60,069,200

RIVN Stock Price Statistics & Volatility

When we zoom out to look at the past year, RIVN has seen a high of $18.13 and a low of $10.36. This wide range indicates that the stock has experienced significant fluctuations, likely driven by market sentiment swings or company-specific news. Currently, the 50-day moving average at $14.37 is positioned above the 200-day moving average of $13.37. This “golden cross” pattern is often interpreted as a bullish signal, pointing towards positive long-term momentum.

Metric	Value
52 Week High	$18.13
52 Week Low	$10.36
50 Day MA	$14.37
200 Day MA	$13.37
Beta	1.82x
Volatility (30d Ann.)	89.5%

The stock carries a beta of 1.82x, meaning it tends to move more sharply than the broader market—about 82% more volatile. Coupled with a high 30-day annualized volatility of 89.5%, it’s clear that RIVN experiences frequent and significant price swings. For investors, this implies the potential for substantial gains, but also a higher degree of downside risk. These indicators are crucial when deciding on position sizing or entry timing, especially if you’re aiming to balance stability with growth exposure in your portfolio.

RIVN Quarterly Earnings Performance Insights

A deep dive into Rivian’s recent quarterly earnings helps us understand its operational progress and challenges. For a growth company, consistent revenue expansion is often prioritized, even as profitability remains a work in progress.

RIVN’s recent quarterly performance shows that in its latest reported quarter (2025-Q3), the company generated revenue of $1.56 billion, alongside a net income of -$1.17 billion. While the net income is still negative, the sequential and year-over-year revenue growth figures are quite compelling. The quarter-over-quarter revenue change was a healthy +19.6%, and the year-over-year revenue growth stands at an impressive +78.3%. This indicates strong demand for Rivian’s vehicles and successful scaling of production.

Recent Quarterly Results for RIVN (Last 4 Quarters)

Here’s a snapshot of RIVN’s performance over the past four quarters:

Quarter	Revenue	Net Income	EPS	Gross Margin
2025-Q3	$1.56 B	-$1.17 B	-0.96x	1.5%
2025-Q2	$1.30 B	-$1.12 B	-0.97x	-15.8%
2025-Q1	$1.24 B	-$545.00 M	-0.48x	16.6%
2024-Q4	$1.73 B	-$743.00 M	-0.70x	9.8%

RIVN Growth Metrics Breakdown

These growth metrics highlight Rivian’s rapid expansion.

Metric	Value
QoQ Revenue Growth	+19.6%
QoQ Net Income Growth	+5.0%
YoY Revenue Growth	+78.3%

The strong year-over-year revenue growth is a testament to Rivian’s ability to ramp up production and meet customer demand. While net income growth is also positive on a quarter-over-quarter basis, the company is still in a phase where scaling production and market penetration are paramount, leading to continued negative net income figures. Investors will be keenly watching for these growth rates to sustain while the company works towards achieving consistent profitability. You can find more details on their quarterly reports through the SEC Edgar filings.

RIVN Short Selling Information & Bearish Sentiment

Short selling activity can be a powerful indicator of market sentiment and potential price movements. Let’s analyze the current short interest in RIVN.

There is currently 158 million shares worth of short interest in RIVN. The short ratio, or “days to cover,” stands at 2.9x. This means that, based on the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take approximately three days for all short positions to be covered. A low days-to-cover figure like this suggests that short sellers do not currently have significant control over the stock’s price, and the risk of a prolonged “short squeeze” (where shorts are forced to buy back shares, driving prices up rapidly) is relatively low.

Metric	Value
Shares Short	158 M
Short Ratio (Days To Cover)	2.90x
Short % of Float	14.93%
Shares Short (Prior Month)	162 M
Short Date	2025-11-14

With 14.93% of the public float sold short, a high percentage of the float is being bet against. This signals significant bearish conviction from a segment of the market. This level has remained relatively stable compared to last month’s value of 162 million shares shorted, suggesting a consistent, albeit strong, bearish sentiment. that notable short interest can lead to volatility spikes, especially if positive news emerges that forces short sellers to cover their positions quickly. This dynamic can create rapid price movements in either direction.

RIVN Risk Analysis: Understanding Volatility & Drawdown

Investing in growth stocks like RIVN comes with inherent risks, and it’s crucial to understand the various facets of its risk profile. These metrics help quantify the potential for both gains and losses.

RIVN’s risk profile reveals high volatility, with an annualized volatility of 63.3%. This figure clearly indicates a high investment risk, meaning the stock experiences significant price swings compared to the broader market. Investors should be prepared for considerable ups and downs when holding RIVN.

The Sharpe ratio of -0.22x suggests poor risk-adjusted returns. A negative Sharpe ratio means that the investment has underperformed a risk-free asset, even before accounting for its volatility. This is a critical metric for assessing whether the returns are adequately compensating for the risk taken. Furthermore, the maximum drawdown of -93.12% highlights a significant downside risk experienced during adverse market conditions, reminding us of the potential for substantial capital loss from peak to trough.

Metric	Value
Volatility (Annualized)	63.3%
Value at Risk (5%)	-6.32%
Value at Risk (1%)	-10.36%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.22x
Sortino Ratio	-0.30x
Maximum Drawdown	-93.12%
Skewness	0.30x
Kurtosis	6.82x

The Value at Risk (VaR) at a 5% confidence level indicates a potential loss of -6.32% in the worst 5% of scenarios over a given period. At a 1% confidence level, this potential loss increases to -10.36%. These VaR figures provide a probabilistic estimate of potential losses. The Sortino ratio of -0.30x specifically focuses on downside risk, offering additional insight into risk-adjusted performance by penalizing only negative volatility. Investors must carefully consider these risk metrics in conjunction with their own risk tolerance and overall investment objectives before making any decisions regarding RIVN.

RIVN Sentiment Analysis: Market Mood & Confidence

Market sentiment can significantly influence stock prices, often independently of a company’s fundamentals. Let’s gauge the current mood around RIVN.

Current market sentiment analysis for RIVN reveals a mixed picture, leaning slightly negative, with a composite sentiment score of -0.03x and a confidence level of 44.2%. This neutral-to-slightly-bearish sentiment is derived from an aggregation of various data sources, including recent news coverage, professional analyst recommendations, and activity in the options market.

Metric	Value
Composite Sentiment Score	-0.03x
Sentiment Classification	Neutral
Sentiment Confidence	44.2%
News Sentiment	Positive (0.10x)
Analyst Sentiment	Neutral (0.00x)
Options Sentiment	Negative (-0.17x)
Put/Call Ratio	0.59x

Breaking down the sentiment components provides more detail: news analysis shows a slightly Positive score (0.10x), suggesting recent headlines have been generally favorable. Analyst consensus, however, is Neutral (0.00x), indicating a balanced view from professional researchers. The options market sentiment reflects a more Negative stance (-0.17x), possibly due to an increased preference for put options, which profit from price declines. The Put/Call Ratio of 0.59x supports this, showing that fewer calls are being bought relative to puts, further hinting at underlying bearishness in the derivatives market. This weak sentiment signal should always be considered alongside a thorough fundamental and technical analysis for a comprehensive investment perspective.

RIVN Peer Comparison: How Does Rivian Stack Up?

To truly understand Rivian’s position in the market, it’s essential to compare it against its key competitors. Let’s see how RIVN measures up against established players like Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM), and Ford (F).

Rivian’s market capitalization of $20.67 billion positions it as the smallest player in this group, dwarfed by Tesla’s massive $1.43 trillion valuation and even trailing GM ($70.00 billion) and Ford ($52.91 billion). This highlights Rivian’s relatively early stage in its market journey compared to these automotive giants.

In terms of profitability, RIVN currently has negative earnings per share (-$3.10), making traditional P/E ratio analysis challenging (its forward P/E is -6.15). This contrasts sharply with its peers: Tesla (P/E 294.64) trades at premium multiples reflecting its dominant market position and growth, while GM (P/E 14.03) and Ford (P/E 11.35) trade at much lower multiples, characteristic of mature or slower-growth businesses.

Metric	RIVN	TSLA	GM	F
Market Cap	$20.67B	$1.43T	$70.00B	$52.91B
P/E Ratio	-6.15	294.64	14.03	11.35
Revenue Growth	78.30%	11.60%	-0.30%	9.40%
Net Margin	-61.34%	5.31%	1.62%	2.48%
EPS	-3.10	1.46	5.24	1.17
ROE	-64.92%	6.79%	4.44%	10.29%
Debt-to-Equity	102	17.08	195	347
Dividend Yield	0.00%	0.00%	82.00%	4.52%
52-Week Range	10.36 – 18.13	214.25 – 488.54	41.36 – 73.86	8.11 – 13.81

Revenue growth is where RIVN shines, boasting a strong 78.30% expansion, significantly outpacing TSLA (11.60%), F (9.40%), and GM (-0.30%). This highlights Rivian’s aggressive growth phase. However, RIVN faces substantial profitability challenges with a -61.34% net margin, starkly contrasting with TSLA (5.31%), GM (1.62%), and F (2.48%). Its negative -64.92% ROE further reflects its current unprofitability.

Regarding leverage, Rivian maintains a moderate 102 debt-to-equity ratio. This is higher than TSLA (17.08), which has much lower debt levels, but significantly lower than GM (195) and F (347), which show even higher leverage, common in the capital-intensive legacy auto industry. Finally, dividend policies vary: GM (82.00%) and F (4.52%) reward shareholders with payouts, whereas RIVN, like Tesla (0.00%), reinvests all cash into growth, aiming for future capital appreciation.

RIVN Insider Transactions: Recent Activity & Ownership Changes

Insider transactions can offer a glimpse into how those closest to the company—executives and major shareholders—view its prospects. Their buying and selling activity can sometimes signal confidence or concern.

Over the last three months, there have been 15 insider transactions at Rivian. A significant portion of these (9) were related to stock awards or tax-related dispositions, rather than discretionary open-market trades. Focusing on discretionary open-market activity, we saw 5 market sales and 0 market purchases, indicating that insiders are actively reducing their positions.

The recent market transactions lean toward selling, with insiders continuing to reduce their holdings in the near term. While this selling activity is notable, the modest scale of many of these transactions often suggests routine profit-taking or portfolio rebalancing, rather than deep fundamental concerns about the company’s long-term prospects. For instance, you can examine specific SEC filings for these transactions.

Insider Name	Type	Shares Changed	Price	Shares After	Transaction Date	Filing Date
Scaringe Robert J	SELL (Sale) [S]	-17,450	$15.11	1,185,009	2025-11-25	2025-11-28
Venkataratnam Sreela	SELL (Tax Payment) [F]	-13,377	$15.11	489,794	2025-11-15	2025-11-18
Scaringe Robert J	SELL (Tax Payment) [F]	-43,946	$15.11	1,202,459	2025-11-15	2025-11-18
McDonough Claire	SELL (Tax Payment) [F]	-30,179	$15.11	759,266	2025-11-15	2025-11-18
CALLAHAN MICHAEL JOHN	SELL (Tax Payment) [F]	-33,614	$15.11	863,525	2025-11-15	2025-11-18
Scaringe Robert J	SELL (Sale) [S]	-52,350	$16.60	1,246,405	2025-11-11	2025-11-13
Scaringe Robert J	SELL (Disposition) [D]	-20,355,946	~$15.22*	4,922,182	2025-11-06	2025-11-07
Gomez Aidan N.	SELL (Tax Payment) [F]	-414	$13.03	39,238	2025-10-20	2025-10-22
Scaringe Robert J	SELL (Sale) [S]	-17,450	$15.14	1,298,755	2025-09-30	2025-10-02
Scaringe Robert J	SELL (Sale) [S]	-17,450	$14.00	1,316,205	2025-09-16	2025-09-18
Scaringe Robert J	SELL (Sale) [S]	-17,450	$14.00	1,333,655	2025-09-10	2025-09-12

It’s clear that while there are routine dispositions, significant open market buys are absent. However, a large stock award to Robert J. Scaringe on 2025-11-06 indicates strong ongoing compensation in equity, aligning his long-term interests with the company’s success. Investors should always look at insider transactions as one piece of a larger puzzle, considering the context and scale of the trades.

Key Risk Factors for Investing in RIVN

Every investment carries risk, and Rivian (RIVN) is no exception. While its growth potential is exciting, potential investors should be fully aware of several key risk factors that could impact its stock performance. This list highlights critical considerations based on current data and market dynamics.

• ⚠️ Overbought Technicals: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for RIVN is currently high at 80.3 (above the 70 threshold), suggesting potential overbought conditions. This often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation, so investors buying now could face immediate downside.
• ⚠️ Sector Volatility: As part of the Consumer Cyclical sector and specifically the Auto Manufacturers industry, RIVN is highly sensitive to general market fluctuations and broader economic conditions. Economic downturns, shifts in consumer spending, or rising interest rates can disproportionately impact demand for discretionary purchases like electric vehicles.
• ⚠️ High Debt Load: Rivian carries a substantial $5.20 billion in debt. In a rising interest rate environment, servicing this debt could become more expensive, potentially impacting the company’s profitability and cash flow available for reinvestment.
• ⚠️ Intense Competition: The electric vehicle market is becoming increasingly crowded with both established automotive giants (like Ford and GM) and emerging EV startups. This intense competition could put pressure on Rivian’s pricing, market share, and ultimately, its profitability.
• ⚠️ Capital Efficiency Challenges: Rivian’s negative Return on Invested Capital (ROIC of -32.54%) and extended Cash Conversion Cycle (approximately 160.9 days) indicate challenges in efficiently utilizing capital and converting operations into cash. Improving these metrics is crucial for long-term financial health.
• ⚠️ Path to Profitability: Despite strong revenue growth (78.30% YoY), Rivian currently has negative profit margins (Net Margin: -61.34%). The company is sacrificing short-term profitability for growth, and there’s no guarantee when it will achieve sustainable positive net income.

Investors should carefully weigh these risks against their own risk tolerance and investment objectives.

RIVN Analyst Insights and Consensus Recommendations

Professional analysts play a significant role in shaping market perceptions and price targets. Let’s summarize the collective view of the analysts currently covering Rivian (RIVN).

The consensus recommendation from analysts is currently a ‘Hold’. This view is based on the input of 24 analyst(s) who contribute to the consensus. The mean price target set by these analysts is $14.83, with individual targets ranging widely from a low of $10.00 to a high of $25.00.

Metric	Value
Recommendation	Hold
Mean Target Price	$14.83
High Target Price	$25.00
Low Target Price	$10.00
Number of Analyst Opinions	24

Based on the mean target price of $14.83, this implies a potential downside of approximately -12.0% from the current stock price of $16.86. This provides a clear gauge of Wall Street’s current sentiment regarding the stock’s potential over the next year. A “Hold” rating typically suggests that analysts believe the stock is fairly valued at its current price and that investors should neither buy nor sell, but rather maintain their existing positions.

Recent News and Developments for Rivian (RIVN)

Staying informed about the latest news and company developments is crucial for any investor. Recent headlines offer fresh context to Rivian’s market movements and strategic positioning.

Here are some of the most recent news items impacting Rivian:

• Is Most-Watched Stock Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Worth Betting on Now? (Publisher: Zacks, Published: 2025-11-27T14:00:05Z): This article likely explores RIVN’s current market popularity and whether it translates into a sound investment opportunity given recent performance.
• A comprehensive list of 2025 tech layoffs (Publisher: TechCrunch, Published: 2025-11-26T19:28:05Z): While not directly about Rivian, this broader industry news could reflect on hiring and operational efficiency trends in the tech and EV sectors, potentially influencing investor sentiment towards growth companies.
• This EV Stock Is Way Cheaper Than Tesla (Publisher: Motley Fool, Published: 2025-11-26T11:45:00Z): This piece likely compares Rivian’s valuation metrics to Tesla’s, suggesting RIVN might offer a more attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to the EV market without Tesla’s high multiples.
• 2 Things Every Rivian Investor Needs to Know (Publisher: Motley Fool, Published: 2025-11-26T09:05:00Z): This article would typically highlight critical operational updates, strategic moves, or financial insights that are particularly relevant to RIVN shareholders.
• How the Latest Production Ramp-Up Affects Rivian’s True Value in 2025 (Publisher: Simply Wall St., Published: 2025-11-26T02:15:20Z): This news likely delves into Rivian’s manufacturing progress and how increased vehicle output is impacting its intrinsic valuation and future outlook.

These recent headlines underscore the ongoing investor interest in Rivian, particularly concerning its valuation relative to competitors, its production capabilities, and the broader economic environment impacting the tech and EV sectors.

Conclusion and Investment Outlook for RIVN

Alright, we’ve covered a lot of ground on Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN). Let’s bring it all together to form a comprehensive outlook. Investing in RIVN means navigating a blend of exciting growth prospects and significant operational challenges.

Short-Term Technical Snapshot for Rivian

From a technical perspective, the immediate picture for RIVN is nuanced.

Technical Aspect	Observation
Overall Technical Sentiment	Neutral
Price Trend vs MAs	Bullish (above SMA50/200)
Momentum (RSI)	Overbought (80.3)
Support / Resistance (30d)	~$12.39 / ~$18.13

While the price is above key moving averages, signaling a bullish trend, the overbought RSI at 80.3 warrants caution. Short-term traders should prepare for potential consolidation or a pullback before the next leg up.

Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook for RIVN

For the longer term, the fundamental story is still unfolding, with a mix of strong growth and profitability challenges.

Fundamental Aspect	Observation
1-Year Avg. Forecast	~-20.1% avg. change to ≈$13.46
Fundamental Health	Assessment Incomplete (ROE: -64.92%, D/E: 1.02x)
Valuation Snapshot	Appears Moderate (Fwd P/E: -6.15x)
Recent Growth (YoY)	Revenue: 78.30%
Analyst Consensus	Hold (Target: $14.83)

The 1-year average forecast suggests a potential downside of around -20.1%, with a target near $13.46. While RIVN boasts impressive revenue growth (78.30% YoY), its negative ROE and ongoing unprofitability mean the fundamental health assessment remains incomplete but indicates areas for improvement. The valuation, with a Forward P/E of -6.15x, appears moderate for a high-growth company in its current stage.

Overall Assessment & Outlook for RIVN Stock

Overall, RIVN presents a stock with a technically neutral short-term outlook, primarily due to overbought conditions, balanced against a fundamentally strong revenue growth trajectory. The long-term forecast, however, implies a potential downside from current levels. The company’s financial health, marked by high debt but strong cash flow, indicates it’s managing its growth investments.

Investors considering RIVN should carefully weigh these points against the identified risks, such as high volatility, intense competition, and the ongoing path to profitability. For those with a higher risk tolerance and a long-term belief in Rivian’s ability to execute its growth strategy and achieve economies of scale, current levels might present an interesting entry on a significant pullback. However, conservative investors might find the current risk-reward profile less appealing, especially with the short-term technical warnings and analyst consensus for a ‘Hold’. Always conduct your thorough independent research and consider your personal investment goals.

Frequently Asked Questions About RIVN Stock

Here are some common questions investors have about Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) stock, based on the analysis we’ve just covered.

What is the RIVN stock price prediction for the next year (2025-2026)?

Based on current models, the average 1-year price forecast for RIVN is approximately $13.46. This represents a potential -20.1% change from the recent price of $16.86. It’s crucial to remember that this is a model-driven estimate, not a guarantee, and actual prices will fluctuate significantly based on numerous market and company-specific factors.

Will RIVN stock go up or down in the near future?

The 1-year forecast model suggests the price might decrease significantly on average (a potential -20.1%). However, the short-term direction is highly uncertain and heavily influenced by prevailing market sentiment (currently ‘Neutral’), breaking news, and overall economic conditions. Technically, the RSI indicates overbought conditions (RSI: 80.3), suggesting caution or potential for a pullback in the very near term.

Is Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock a good investment right now?

Whether RIVN is a ‘good buy’ now involves balancing several elements. Technically, the RSI indicates overbought conditions (RSI: 80.3), suggesting caution or potential for a pullback. Fundamentally, the company shows strong revenue growth (78.30% YoY) but is still unprofitable (ROE: -64.92%). You must weigh the company’s valuation, stability, growth prospects, and identified risks against your own investment goals and risk profile.

How volatile is RIVN stock and what does its Beta mean?

Based on the recent 30-day price action, RIVN’s annualized volatility is approximately 89.5%. This level is considered high, indicating the degree of recent price fluctuation. Its Beta of 1.82x means the stock tends to be 82% more volatile than the broader market, making it suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance.

What are Rivian’s key financial health indicators?

Rivian’s financial health includes a strong Current Ratio of 2.71x and Quick Ratio of 2.13x, suggesting it can comfortably cover its short-term liabilities. Its robust operating cash flow ($1.08 billion) and levered free cash flow ($4.00 million) provide a significant buffer, crucial for funding operations and managing its $5.20 billion in total debt.

What are the critical upcoming events for RIVN investors?

Beyond regular earnings reports, investors should monitor macroeconomic shifts, competitive actions within the rapidly evolving EV market, and major corporate announcements from Rivian. Key areas to watch include production ramp-up targets, new model launches, and any updates regarding profitability timelines.

How does RIVN compare to its competitors in the EV market?

RIVN is a smaller, high-growth player compared to giants like Tesla, GM, and Ford. While it boasts impressive revenue growth (78.30%), it significantly lags in profitability with a -61.34% net margin. Its debt levels are moderate compared to legacy automakers but higher than Tesla. RIVN is in an aggressive expansion phase, prioritizing market capture over immediate profits, which differentiates its financial profile from both established and more mature EV companies.